[Scofflaw]

Originally Posted by ectoraige

Slightly less than if there is a YES result.

Since the beginning of the financial crisis the EU response has been to ignore the scale and interconnectedness of the debt. Any measures that have been taken have been little more than an exercise in economic fire-fighting, and have done nothing to address the root of the problem.

If this approach continues, we will see the break-up of the Euro, and damage the European project for years. This treaty is a part of this failed response.

If Ireland votes YES it will be seen as an endorsement of the EUs crisis management to date. If however it votes NO, another solution will have to be put in place, and it should be a more meaningful solution, because quite frankly the treaty is quite meaningless.

I love Europe, and the Euro and for those very reasons I cannot endorse the treaty. It is bad for Europe, and it is very bad for the Euro.

Are you aware of the full range of measures that are being, or have been, put into place?

I'd agree that watching Europe's governments scrambling to negotiate into place crisis measures that should have been negotiated at the start has been unedifying - the total lack of a plan B is, as ever, the characteristic feature of Europe-wide plans. To be fair, though, just negotiating a plan A is hard enough.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[ixtlan]

McWilliams... We say we will never default on sovereign debt as normally understood -- debt incurred for schools, hospitals etc -- but when it comes to all this bank debt we don't have any choice.

And good luck convincing bond markets of our new definition of sovereign debt... as an economist he surely knows this is a ridiculous statement.

The problem with McWilliams, is that while he has a point, like some of the other no economists, he views the problem strictly as an economic one. It isn't. It's a political/economic one. Doing what you may think is just and right from a economic point of view to the exclusion of politics would end in disaster. Should Ireland accept any responsibility for the bank debts? If you say none, you are surely indicating that we as a nation are unable to govern ourselves. If you say well... maybe we could take some hit, if our finances were left in a sustainable state, then it does become a political issue to negotiate. The no-side believes that the best negotiating stance is one with a no-vote in one hand and a threat of default in the other, while personally I believe a yes-vote in one hand and a reasonable balanced approach in the other is better.

Ix.

[ectoraige]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

Are you aware of the full range of measures that are being, or have been, put into place?

I'm aware of what has been put into place, and that's why I'm so pessimistic. I can't point to a single one that hasn't just kicked the ball down the line, when it'll cost more to eventually deal with.

The only plans that I do hear being bandied about at the moment are contingencies for dealing with a Greek exit, even though there's little to indicate a Greek desire for such an outcome.

[Scofflaw]

Originally Posted by ectoraige

I'm aware of what has been put into place, and that's why I'm so pessimistic. I can't point to a single one that hasn't just kicked the ball down the line, when it'll cost more to eventually deal with.

The only plans that I do hear being bandied about at the moment are contingencies for dealing with a Greek exit, even though there's little to indicate a Greek desire for such an outcome.

So, the 'six-pack', the 'two-pack', the European Banking Authority, the upgraded coordination, the 'European Semester' are all can-kicking?

cordially,
Scofflaw