[turbobaby]

What a dirty week that was. Down about €10,000

I can honestly say it does not bother me though as I still have a lot of confidence in the prospects offshore Namibia and the fundamentals for gold and silver are greater than ever.

I received word that the deadline for public comments against the final permit for CMC Metals is June 4th. The water licence was granted "uncontested", so I have high hopes for the granting of the final permit which will lead to a share price multiples of what it is now (14 cent).

I picked up 1050 more shares of Chariot just before closing yesterday using the last €1,000 cash in my account. They have their AGM on Monday and the restriction placed on Petrobras (PB) as part of their 2009 farm in agreement ended today. As way of background, PB farmed into 50% of the Nimrod block in 2009. BP then farmed in, buying 25% from Chariot, and then finally they bought another 20% but this time from PB.

45% BP
30% PB
25% CHAR

To give you an idea of the potential, the Nimrod block has prospective recoverable resources of 4.9 billion barrels, i.e 1.2 billion barrels for Chariot. At $3 per barrel, it would give Char a market cap of about £2.2 billion or £8.60 per share. It would also de-risk the other blocks held 100% by CHAR. At that share price my €3,800 worth of shares would be worth approx €45,000. Of course it is possible that Nimrod has zero oil and in that case my shares would be worth next to nothing.

Investors are speculating why PB sold some of their stake to BP. On one hand you can speculate that since 2009 they have lost confidence in Nimrod and wanted to de-risk. On the other hand you could say that they took a look at the Tapir South 3D seismics and the 25% chance of success there and believed that they could takeover CHAR on the cheap prior to the Nimrod spud. If this is the case, it is working out beautifully for them. The price drops to near cash levels just when the share purchase restriction ends. They start picking up shares and then launch a takeover. The market cap of Chariot is currently £130m.

We have the G8 this weekend, so hopefully something positive will come from that. Another can kick maybe!

[turbobaby]

Another non commercial oil discovery for HRT. Battered!

It's the perfect storm of failure for me right now. No panic though

[Thargor]

That sucks, everybody's battered after last week though.

I had a good day today, sold 20% of my RRL right at the top (if you could call it a top after last weeks drop) and bought 10k more GKP at the days low after doubling up nearly right at the bottom last week, had to max out the credit card to do it, already in profit. Got my pf split 50% GKP, 30% RRL, 20% HRN now. I wanted the extra security of GKP with the way things are, never thought Id get to own this many shares in them and I was kicking myself for not doing this when they were headed for £4 on the last takeover rumors a few weeks ago, very happy with that holding now.

Im not buying any more shares this year, just going to start stockpiling cash for any bargains if we get another 2008 situation.

[turbobaby]

I was keeping an eye on GKP with you in mind! Good to hear you got the timing right. It's all about long term returns so I hope those prices today work out for you. Like HRT making just one discovery, a couple of signed names on an Oil Agreement in Kurdistan will send GKP flying.

[turbobaby]

HRT got hit heavily after announcing well 170/06 was not commercial, and informed the market that they would drill a third well in the same block.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. The market wanted HRT to move the rig to the East, where it should be easier to find a commercial discovery. However, HRT did not do what the market wanted, they decided to stay and stick it out, confident in their ability to find a commercial well and also re-appraise 170/01 and 170/06 (read fracking). Management are very confident that they are not too far away from production.

When the share price dropped to another 52 week low, a conference call took place where management outlined their plans. Prior to the meeting HRT announced that they had secured the rig for four wells to be drilled offshore Namibia from late 2012 into mid/late 2013.

We also received confirmation that the shares will split 1:50 on Monday morning, enabling smaller investors to buy.

HRT recovered towards the end of the week but remains at a shockingly low valuation.

Chariot also confirmed that a rig has been secured for their Nimrod prospect, which will be drilled by Petrobras in early July and will take about a month and a half. This will be an extremely important drill for Chariot and other Namibian oil plays.

As the deadline for registering complaints against CMC Metals' plan of operations approached (June 4th) we are seeing a nice rise in the share price. It has bounced of 12c a couple of times and is currently sitting at 15c.

Herencia have yet to announce the results of their Guamanga drilling, which are overdue at this stage. Also, the Final Resource estimate for their Patricia lead, zinc, silver property is due at the end of May/early June. It also fell during the week on very low volume but as soon as some buyers appeared it rose quickly (up 6.78% on Friday).

All in all, the week was positive just over €1,000.

I was unable to capture the screenshots during the week when I reach a new low as thankfully I am quite busy with my new job and some volunteer work in the community!! When the markets are like this, it is nice to be out and about and not watching the share prices tick by tick.

The low was €32,528 on Tuesday (i.e. - €17,472). The current balance is €36,844 (- €13,156).

[turbobaby]

Another month has passed by on the since posting the update to the list of company specific drivers for the HRT share price. Here's another update. April remains in blue, May in green.

• Approval from the regulators (ANP) to transfer 45% of the Solimoes asset to TNK BP; Approved with no changes. Good.

• News about the arrival of four rigs in the Solimoes which were ordered from China; HRT are scaling down exploration in the Solimoes so it remains to be seen if they will take delivery of these rigs. HRT have indicated that they will sell two and take delivery of two. No word on when they will arrive.

• Results of the drilling of well 170/6. Due mid April. 20km from a Petrobras oil discovery, so some oil is expected. Results announced late April. Oil was indeed found. Formation tests underway for the next month or so to find out if well will be commercial. Oil discovery not commercial.

• Formation test results from well 192/1; Done. Results described by management as "exceptional" but the market did not agree.

• Commencement of drilling in Namibia by Chariot; Spudded April 5th. Expected to be completed by mid June. Chariot did not farm out this block and some are suggesting it is because management are very confident of success, despite stating only a 25% chance of success. Duster! Now people are suggesting that BP and PB were not interested in Tapir South. The "farm in" was by way of Private Placement with Janus. Share price dropped over 50%.

• Formation test results for well 170/6; Just started and results are expected in early June. Not commercial due to low porosities.

• A 1/50 share split on the Brazilian listing, enabling smaller investors to buy in; Confirmed to commence on May 28th 2012. The Canadian shares will also split, but we don't know the ratio yet. Shares will split on Monday as planned. No split for Canadian shares.

• Results of drilling of the extension of well 194 (the first test found condensate, if there is oil in the extension it would be excellent news); Expected in the next week or two! Still no word. Small potential for a surprise oil find as management have indicated they are very close to a commercial discovery!

• Farm-out of Namibian assets to a major oil company. Data rooms have opened. Farm out likely to happen late June/July. No update.

• Possible fracking in Solimoes to improve flow rates; No update. Management have indicated that they will be re-assessing the commerciality of block 170. This means fracking. Approval will be required from ANP. Farm in partners are fracking experts.

• Results from Chariot's drilling in Namibia; Due mid June.

• Possible announcement of gas monetization; No update. Still nothing although in recent news Petrobras has indicated they are willing to work with other Brazilian oil companies for the good of the country.

• Start to drill in Namibia; No update. HRT are v close to signing the contract for the rig to drill at least 4 wells in 280 days starting late Q4 2012.

• Update to the certification of estimated barrels of oil in Namibia based on new seismic imaging already received; No update. No update.

• Drilling in Solimoes to move easterly into areas more prone to oil; No update. The next round of drilling has confirmed to take place in blocks 148, 149 and 172.

• Inclusion in the Ibovespa index. Expected to occur in September. No update.

Again, I have been pretty happy with the progress over the last month despite Chariot hitting a duster in Namibia and HRT a non commercial well in the Amazon. Looking deeper, the CHAR well has nothing in common with HRT's wells, and the wells in 170 will likely be made commercial through fracking.

Both CHAR and HRT have secured contracts for further drilling in Namibia.

'Risk off' has badly effected oil explorers.

In this last month the share price has dropped ~33%.

[ixus]

Originally Posted by liammur

Got hit with char/rmp/lam/emg. What a dreadful run. Can't see much more downside, only problem is most of my capital is gone, and I used margin

Liammur, while I don't want to be seen as giving advice in this area, I would urge you to be extremely careful in this situation. Do not put yourself at risk with respect to margin trades. This sort of thing can go very wrong, very quickly. You see it reported all the time how people lose their homes on this sort of thing.

To everyone, this thread is a classic example of poor risk management. We have clearly entered a bear market and volatile stocks will suffer because of this. Oil itself has taken a massive hit. Would you not think this would be reflected in the share price? Iran/QE3 is what you're holding out for here.

The market was so bullish at the start of the year because of the LTRO's but this has dissipated very quickly. The junkie needs bigger fixes and more often. With out QE3 or some form of intervention the market will stay bearish with your typical bear market rallies. Even core Europe is close to a recession.

Turbo, you seem to understand what is going on in the economy/globally as you reference it regularly but then say you're still bullish on XYZ. This is classic cognitive dissonance. You should go back and read your posts.

Safe trading.

Edit: You could almost put this thread up there with the old BOI/AIB threads posters used to do battle on.

[turbobaby]

ixus, I appreciate the comments and I will say a couple of things to clear up my approach.

Disclaimer: although I am confident in my ascertians I fully admit that I could be wrong and my portfolio will go to zero.

You are absolutely correct that I am banking on QE3. If I did not believe QE3 was coming I would not be invested in equities, I would be sitting on the sidelines with cash waiting for the bargains to come.

The US economy will not survive without further bond purchases by the Fed, and it's introduction in my view is inevitable. Equities, especially commodity based equities will benefit from this a great deal. When the world wakes up to increasing levels of inflation, and once the market realises that US Treasuries offer no value whatsoever, the cash sitting on the sidelines will flow into equities. If there is a move out from US Treasuries or cash sitting on company balance sheets to equities it will likely be a rush, so I am happy to hold my shares now even if it does mean sitting on losses until this occurs.

All that said, if you look at my individual shares, they are all explorers. While they are obviously effected in a big way by macro conditions, at the end of the day my success or failure with these picks relies on the success of the drillbit. I have speculated over half my portfolio on the risk that there is oil offshore Namibia. No matter what the macro conditions are, I will live or die based on the presence of oil there.

You mentioned the thread is a great example of poor risk management and you are certainly right. However, I am not trying to manage risk. I have speculated on the drill results, and as the drilling is only in its infancy I am not selling my shares. Could I buy and sell to get my average prices down or bank some cash on the way up, yes it's possible, but I am smart enough to realise that my trading abilities and discipline are far too limited to succeed. It's a simple and old fashioned punt and no amount of tinkering will negate that fact.

I have not read the AIB / BOI thread in a long time, so I would be interested in where you see similarities between it and my thread. I think anyone investing in financial shares is a fool, so I hope you are not likening me to a fool, but on current performance I would not be shocked if you are!

Considering I have 60% in Namibia if you take a look at the following chart (Africa Oil vs Solo Oil) you can see the likely charts for my portfolio over the next year. Which chart my portfolio will take is the gamble I am taking. The same macro conditions have existed for both companies throughout this 52 week period.

[The Pontiac]

turbobay,

I follow Paul Curtis, an investor focused on small cap oil companies . He's a fairly big player - he owns 8% of DEO Petroleum, 3% of Serica Energy and has also a large holding in Trap Oil. He also has positions in other companies, namely - Bayfield Energy (BEH), Simba (SMB), IGAS and a few more.

He made this tweet on 27 March "Interesting times - John Hussman expecting re-run of last years bear market" (He linked the article but now dead).

He tweeted the following on 4 April "Started nibbling at Bayfield and Bowleven but is this the start of a summer slide as per last year? I've been selling into recent rally."

He tweeted on 9th May " prices are close to last year's lows and in many cases prospects improved. However still hoarding cash in case Armageddon...."

and tweeted on 23 May "Risk:reward attractive with valuations close to last years lows and imo low chance of meltdown. I'm nibbling but no hurry."

So as you can see, Paul keeps an very close eye on the wider market, as small-cap oil companies will get hammered in a risk off mode. He isn't a trader per se, more an investor, but still sells down/de-risks if he feels stocks are overbought or the rally has run its course.

Trap Oil went from 20p to 33p earlier this year and this was purely down to positive market sentiment. Horn Petroleum went from 90c to over $2 before any drill results were announced. Even SQZ hit 47p after the BP farm-in announcement. One could have bought SQZ @ 15p earlier in the year. 25p today. Paul Curtis started selling some of his SQZ holding as he felt it was overbought.

Just an example of an investor of high risk oil exploration stocks, and the risk management strategy he adheres to. I think this is what Ixus was advising, but stand to be corrected.

[turbobaby]

Thanks for that Ollie. I think that is exactly what ixus is referring to and is certainly the best option for managing risk, i.e. reducing losses as much as possible and getting the best out of your capital too.

But this guy is a professional. I am not. I don't know the best time to be buying and selling. I am more than willing to take losses, safe in the knowledge that I will hold all my shares if/when a massive oil discovery is made, or a farm out on excellent terms is announced, or QE3 is confirmed etc.

I want to limit my trading as much as possible. The kind of scenario I would dread is me selling a stake in HRT so that I could get in at a lower price in the future, then some announcement is made and it goes up. I sit and wait for a pullback that never comes. That would hurt me more than a few down days, as I have the peace of mind that I'm a shareholder.

I'm gonna add this guy to my Twitter feed to get a feel for his trading strategy and see how his thoughts relate to the performance of my juniors. Thanks again Ollie. I'm pleased to see Mart doing well for you. Up 15% this week. Are you still holding it or did you manage your risk!?

Edit to add: I have just read through his last month of tweets. Excellent stuff. If I have time, I might make a Zignals portfolio that tracks his trading to see how he gets on. Thanks again Ollie.

[The Pontiac]

No worries turobaby.

As I mentioned Paul Curtis has a large holding in DEO Petroleum. http://www.deo-petroleum.com/investor-relations/aim-26 PMG (Tom Cross ex. Dana) put in a bid today for DEO. SP is up 27%, but still way too cheap at £12.7m IMO.

No harm at all to follow Paul. Maybe I should have started "nibbling" like him this past fortnight - I could have bought MMT @ 85c like Grecco did. But I still sold for a slightly higher price then it is today. Could have bought XEL @ 75p, GKP @ 180p, IAE at $2.26 etc. etc, but didn't. The euro crisis has me scared shítless, but "nibbling" maybe not such a bad idea?

[liammur]

Originally Posted by ixus

Liammur, while I don't want to be seen as giving advice in this area, I would urge you to be extremely careful in this situation. Do not put yourself at risk with respect to margin trades. This sort of thing can go very wrong, very quickly. You see it reported all the time how people lose their homes on this sort of thing.

To everyone, this thread is a classic example of poor risk management. We have clearly entered a bear market and volatile stocks will suffer because of this. Oil itself has taken a massive hit. Would you not think this would be reflected in the share price? Iran/QE3 is what you're holding out for here.

The market was so bullish at the start of the year because of the LTRO's but this has dissipated very quickly. The junkie needs bigger fixes and more often. With out QE3 or some form of intervention the market will stay bearish with your typical bear market rallies. Even core Europe is close to a recession.

Turbo, you seem to understand what is going on in the economy/globally as you reference it regularly but then say you're still bullish on XYZ. This is classic cognitive dissonance. You should go back and read your posts.

Safe trading.

Edit: You could almost put this thread up there with the old BOI/AIB threads posters used to do battle on.

Thanks, always nice to get advice from someone who means well. I'm always telling people to be very careful on margin as well. And then at times I take a stupid risk myself.

[turbobaby]

Originally Posted by <Ollie>

Maybe I should have started "nibbling" like him this past fortnight - I could have bought MMT @ 85c like Grecco did. But I still sold for a slightly higher price then it is today. Could have bought XEL @ 75p, GKP @ 180p, IAE at $2.26 etc. etc, but didn't. The euro crisis has me scared shítless, but "nibbling" maybe not such a bad idea?

Shoulda woulda coulda!

This is what I mean about trying to time the market by buying and selling. It can go with or against you and as much cash as it might save you, it can also leave you with deep regrets.

For example, HRT is up 25% in the last five days. You have to ask the question "At what point should I have started buying?" Maybe I miss day one of the rise and say to myself it's still in a downward trend so I'll buy back in when it drops back to this level. But what if day one of this rise was the bottom. I can never get back in unless I buy in higher.

Mart is up 16.85% in the last five days too. When will you buy back in? Are you waiting for a drop? It will likely come, but what if it doesn't?

I am not having a go at you, far from it, I'm just showing how quickly these markets can move and leave you behind if you're not careful.

[The Pontiac]

Originally Posted by turbobaby

Shoulda woulda coulda!

This is what I mean about trying to time the market by buying and selling. It can go with or against you and as much cash as it might save you, it can also leave you with deep regrets.

I've sold many times at a profit, and the stock continued to rise. Not much point regretting it. Also sold many times and the stock continued to fall.

For example, HRT is up 25% in the last five days. You have to ask the question "At what point should I have started buying?" Maybe I miss day one of the rise and say to myself it's still in a downward trend so I'll buy back in when it drops back to this level. But what if day one of this rise was the bottom. I can never get back in unless I buy in higher.

It's almost impossible to call the bottom so I can't answer that question. The market went on a bull run at the start of the year and we're now in a bear market. All bull-runs come to an end. The euro crisis was always going to reappear.

I was just giving an example of Ixus' advice with my Paul Curtis post. Positive market sentiment was the reason for most oil stocks (including HRP) rising in Q1. Just think it's wise to take advantage by banking some profits to de-risk.

Mart is up 16.85% in the last five days too. When will you buy back in? Are you waiting for a drop? It will likely come, but what if it doesn't?

But I already sold Mart at a profit, that is the whole point. I may never buy back in and couldn't care less if I don't as there's hundreds of other oil stocks out there. PCI @ 5.9p, RRL @ 6.5p, BLVN @63p, XEL @ 90p. Will I buy at the bottom? I doubt it, but if I do buy, it will be hell of a lot cheaper that they were in earlier 2012.

I am not having a go at you, far from it, I'm just showing how quickly these markets can move and leave you behind if you're not careful.

Exactly. It's the very same risk as holding and not taking profit. The market can move in the opposite way as we have seen. It's up to each individual to call it.

Not having a go either.

[turbobaby]

Good post Ollie! Always good to hear how others see things. I like your attitude about taking a profit and not regretting any further rises on the shares.

I will still be holding on to my shares in HRT until the drilling campaign is done, and happy to ride the rollercoaster of rises and falls during the campaign, as I feel the hands-off strategy is better for me. You probably have your emotions more in control with your trades than I would. Perhaps you sleep better at night knowing you've taken a profit and have some cash waiting to grab a bargain, whereas I prefer going to sleep with all my shares, safe in the knowledge that if there's a commercial oil announcement in the morning I will be on board. Horses for courses!