[daltonmd]

Originally Posted by comeback_kid

as i said , thier is always a class of people in every country who have secure high earning jobs , legal professionals , doctors , etc , someone who might only have been able to afford to buy in drumcondra six years ago might be able to afford to buy in raneleagh or blackrock today , thats a very attractive proposition for many , none of this changes the overall market all that much , thier are places in west dublin and all of ireland which might fall or languish for ten years yet but highly sought after locations are not going to drop to 150 k per joint ever

To be honest - if there are these high earners then they are aiming at this:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=620833

And not this:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=590087

There will always be a "premium" for location but a floor? That's another thing altogether.

[comeback_kid]

Originally Posted by kennyb3

I actually don't know what to say to you. You've thrown a few ancedotes out there.

I'll ask again what evidence is there that now is a good time to buy?

Those geniuses who say houses are 26% undervalued , what proof have they , it's all hunch when it comes to property , one factor I forgot to mention was fuel price , that will help Dublin prices but hurt the commuter belt

[kennyb3]

[StillWaters]

Originally Posted by kennyb3

What % of the population do these people make up? Which area's are secure exactly? For example many many solicitors practices have closed or virtually ceased given the lack of conveyance. There are so many doctors in the country many of which would have purchased some years ago. Is there much job prospects for those now graduating who would be next to get on the so called 'ladder'?

Whether you like it or not, there are a cohort of people who are ready to buy, cash rich, either from saving, inheritance, or being canny and selling in the bubble. They are mortgage approved, and want to buy family homes in premium areas. They have called value now. As has been said already, this is a micro market, only occurring with family homes in premium locations in Dublin. I agree it will be a long time before there is any recovery in the apartment market or areas outside the cities.

As for what areas are people still pulling good wages in, I would have thought pharma and IT fairly high on the list.

[noxqs]

Originally Posted by StillWaters

Whether you like it or not, there are a cohort of people who are ready to buy, cash rich, either from saving, inheritance, or being canny and selling in the bubble. They are mortgage approved, and want to buy family homes in premium areas.

They are there but there's really not that many of them. You sound like there is an army of people with cash ready to buy any day now. This is serious delusion, case in point the amount of savings in cash in Irish Banks which has been dropping dramatically since 2006.

People haven't been saving since 2007, they've been scraping by. The money didn't go into the mattress it went away entirely via paycuts and taxes.

[kennyb3]

Originally Posted by StillWaters

They are mortgage approved, and want to buy family homes in premium areas. They have called value now. As has been said already, this is a micro market, only occurring with family homes in premium locations in Dublin.

I don't disagree with you on a very micro level in very specific area's based on anecdotal evidence i have available.

However my point was that there is no concrete evidence of this at this time. There has been a one month CSO increase (of only 0.7%) over the course of the past 5 years. It's very plausible that this will reverse next month. One swallow doesn't make a summer. When there are quarter on quarter and year on year increases i'll believe. Just because a few people are calling value in these areas doesnt mean everyone should go wading back in.

[StillWaters]

Originally Posted by noxqs

People haven't been saving since 2007, they've been scraping by. The money didn't go into the mattress it went away entirely via paycuts and taxes.

That is simply not true, the household savings ratio to disposable income has been rising since 2007, and is at over 12%, one of the highest in the EU. During a recession, people with disposable income save rather than spend.

More people have savings now than they did in the early 2000s.

[comeback_kid]

Originally Posted by noxqs

They are there but there's really not that many of them. You sound like there is an army of people with cash ready to buy any day now. This is serious delusion, case in point the amount of savings in cash in Irish Banks which has been dropping dramatically since 2006.

People haven't been saving since 2007, they've been scraping by. The money didn't go into the mattress it went away entirely via paycuts and taxes.

There is still plenty of money in this country , take one section alone , farmers , they have always bought property in Dublin , land went up 25% last year in value , when they see houses in the likes of rathmines at 15 year lows , they will swoop , property was not a good bet for the last ten years as an investment ( let alone for living ) as yields were only a few.percent , there heading for ten % , with shares extremely volatile and interest rates at near zero , real estate looks profitable

[thewing]

Originally Posted by comeback_kid

There is still plenty of money in this country , take one section alone , farmers , they have always bought property in Dublin , land went up 25% last year in value , when they see houses in the likes of rathmines at 15 year lows , they will swoop , property was not a good bet for the last ten years as an investment ( let alone for living ) as yields were only a few.percent , there heading for ten % , with shares extremely volatile and interest rates at near zero , real estate looks profitable

I take it you are talking gross yield here - not taking in to account the cost of funding or upkeep? Not too many people with the money for buying houses in Rathmines for cash, even at current prices.

Folks - nothing to worry about - will someone wake me up when they have dropped another 30%?!

[kennyb3]

Originally Posted by StillWaters

That is simply not true, the household savings ratio to disposable income has been rising since 2007, and is at over 12%, one of the highest in the EU. During a recession, people with disposable income save rather than spend.

More people have savings now than they did in the early 2000s.

I think your confusing real saving with paying down debt (see CSO website)

edit: This might be worth a read too (fig 23 especially useful)

[comeback_kid]

Originally Posted by thewing

I take it you are talking gross yield here - not taking in to account the cost of funding or upkeep? Not too many people with the money for buying houses in Rathmines for cash, even at current prices.

Folks - nothing to worry about - will someone wake me up when they have dropped another 30%?!

yes , im refering to gross yield , im not a union coached public servant who quotes thier NET income , banks when they offer a savings rate dont discount DIRT

with nervousnes about the euro and stocks volatile , even you see no capital appreciation on an property for years , a decent rental yield is as good as a dividend on a stock which crashes twice per year , karl deeter was on radio pointing to the very decent rental yields on property right now , investors will target quality locations while prices are low and lift prices in theese areas , anyone who has thier eye on a place in blanchardstown can sit it out for another few years , different story in rathmines

[desertcircus]

Originally Posted by comeback_kid

yes , im refering to gross yield , im not a union coached public servant who quotes thier NET income , banks when they offer a savings rate dont discount DIRT

with nervousnes about the euro and stocks volatile , even you see no capital appreciation on an property for years , a decent rental yield is as good as a dividend on a stock which crashes twice per year , karl deeter was on radio pointing to the very decent rental yields on property right now , investors will target quality locations while prices are low and lift prices in theese areas , anyone who has thier eye on a place in blanchardstown can sit it out for another few years , different story in rathmines

Anyone buying property to rent out at the moment needs to take a long, hard look at what they're doing. Yield might look good right now, but rent can fall just as severely as price. Rent allowance won't stay at its current level, and all of Nama's apartments will come onto the market eventually. Add to that the fact that property tax is only going to go up and you're faced with the fact that current yields are close to meaningless

[gurramok]

Originally Posted by comeback_kid

land went up 25% last year in value ,

Evidence?

[comeback_kid]

Originally Posted by desertcircus

Anyone buying property to rent out at the moment needs to take a long, hard look at what they're doing. Yield might look good right now, but rent can fall just as severely as price. Rent allowance won't stay at its current level, and all of Nama's apartments will come onto the market eventually. Add to that the fact that property tax is only going to go up and you're faced with the fact that current yields are close to meaningless

does rent allowance apply in blackrock of raneleagh ? , thier is also a increase in dividend tax on stocks on the horizon in many countries

[Theboinkmaster]

Originally Posted by comeback_kid

karl deeter was on radio pointing to the very decent rental yields on property right now

I wouldn't listen to anything Karl Deeter has to say.