[battle_hardend]

Originally Posted by bbam

Regarding the comment on the Euro collapsing. Is this still a Real possibility, there was a lot of talk about it being imminent a few months ago but it didn't come to pass.
What is the current risk to it? Spain?

the euro wont be allowed to crash for the simple reason that the usa and china would take too big of a hit , markets ( including currency markets ) are not near as free as we are led to believe , the euro could go to parity with the dollar although i doubt it , if germany gets its way and is allowed full control of each countrys budgetery policy , this will boost the strength of the euro , this is the price germany will charge for bailing ireland , spain , italy and who knows else out , its a huge political challenge of course

[Joe 90]

Originally Posted by Cookie_Monster

There absolutly should be a mini budget, but I doubt there will be. Any sensible business does a mid year review of their budget, if not more frequently, I don't see why the state should be any different.

Yes, but the business has to live in the real world. The state thinks that the taxpayer can pick up the tab indefinitely for all it's screw ups.

[hmmm]

Originally Posted by lmimmfn

Also, do you think it will affect the referendum?

Why would something that will only happen in your head affect a referendum? What do you mean the local economy is destroyed as a consequence of last years budget - the economy is pretty much the same as it was this time last year.

The coalition are making steady steps towards balancing out budget,I'm not sure what else people expect them to do. Austerity is not a choice we have.

[ardmacha]

There will be no mini-budget.

• Revenue is ahead of target
• while real growth is a little bit less, nominal growth is about the same, and that's largely what determines revenue.

Nothing to see here, move along.

[Godge]

Originally Posted by ardmacha

There will be no mini-budget.

• Revenue is ahead of target
• while real growth is a little bit less, nominal growth is about the same, and that's largely what determines revenue.

Nothing to see here, move along.

A rational post on Irish Economy, good to see.

Even if a mini-budget was needed (and I agree with you that it is not), there is too much political capital to be lost by having one - you can always stop a few capital projects or defer some spending to next year instead. Would take a severe external shock such as the collapse of the euro or Spain or Italy needing a bailout to require a mini-budget.

[Tigerandahalf]

Originally Posted by battle_hardend

the euro wont be allowed to crash for the simple reason that the usa and china would take too big of a hit , markets ( including currency markets ) are not near as free as we are led to believe , the euro could go to parity with the dollar although i doubt it , if germany gets its way and is allowed full control of each countrys budgetery policy , this will boost the strength of the euro , this is the price germany will charge for bailing ireland , spain , italy and who knows else out , its a huge political challenge of course

That is one of the dangers though. If this Fiscal Treaty goes through Germany decides what the budget is no matter what gov the people elect in their own country. This can only create a political vacuum especially if austerity turns into a 10 year programme. It would have to be accompanied by some form of stimulus as well. Otherwise you could have a revolt in some countries. Are there armies big enough to do a coup in Italy/Spain/Greece?? As after this treaty the politicians in their own countries would be powerless and the people would see this to be the case. Who do the people vent against then?
Like is there going to be a solution to tackle youth unemployment? It seems to be far down the list at the moment. Austerity on its own will only make matters worse.
To get back to the thread topic - with Britain entering recession this is bound to affect our exports plus tourism from Britain. People would be booking holidays now etc, so if things are bad they may hold off completely. Hardly good if we are to avoid that 2nd bailout. Dan O'Brien in IT reckons it is on the cards.

[Sappa]

Originally Posted by Chucky the tree

If there is another budget I can't see it being announced in before the referendum, unless they really are bad at the PR game. Also, when a country is running a €16bn deficit I can't help but laugh at people who complain about tax increase and charges, what else is going to happen? Now while the Government haven't done enough in terms of cuts and that has been obvious to everyone they will eventually realise that it is what they need to do.

The whole of the EU is running a massive deficit but all we here is Ireland Ireland,were not the only one who needs to get our house in order but you would swear we are the only ones over spending.
Its laughable to think the EU would cut funding off for Ireland considering that all our bank debt is to pay back German/French banks.

[lmimmfn]

Originally Posted by hmmm

Why would something that will only happen in your head affect a referendum? What do you mean the local economy is destroyed as a consequence of last years budget - the economy is pretty much the same as it was this time last year.

yeah yeah in my head

The Government’s revision to gross national product, a narrower measure of economic activity, went from growth of 0.7 per cent to a contraction of 0.2 per cent. Much of this will be accounted for by households spending less. Private spending is set to fall by 1.5 per cent in 2012, the fifth consecutive year of decline.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...315297334.html

[Farmer Pudsey]

[QUOTE=battle_hardend;78346775]the euro wont be allowed to crash for the simple reason that the usa and china would take too big of a hit , markets ( including currency markets ) are not near as free as we are led to believe , the euro could go to parity with the dollar although i doubt it , if germany gets its way and is allowed full control of each countrys budgetery policy , this will boost the strength of the euro , this is the price germany will charge for bailing ireland , spain , italy and who knows else out , its a huge political challenge of course[/QUOTe

It is not a matter of allowing the Euro to crash the reaity is that bar Ireland the PIIGS are not doing austerity. Even Ireland to protect the poor and vunerable, the Public Service and well off have ruined our private sector. We are afer four years of recession and no growth and still have about four more before we will get growth if we carry on with austerity.

The government to balance the budget plan to take 1000-1500 euro from every working family for the next 3-4 years and half that from single workers. If we only had to balance the budget we would be well on our way to it now.
However this is not the case we also have to bail out German and French Banks who lend recklessly to the PIGGS. NAMA will cost us another 20-30 Billion as I cannot see it managing to get the money it paid for the loans all back as well as what we already put into the banks. Is it 50 Billion
Growth is the only thing that will allow us to balance our budgets we need to get at least 150,000 off the dole and I cannot see that happening as our Social Welfare system is too generous if I was unemployed in the North of Ireland I be moving south and anywhere else in Europe i consider it except for the bloody rain.
The Germans are not bailing us out, ordinary people in Ireland are bailing out Germany if they had to bail out there own banks and help the French do the same they would not be half as worried about Budget deficits and Inflation.

[murphaph]

Originally Posted by Dubit10

Won't matter either way. When the government lose the referendum the coalition will collapse as the euro goes into meltdown. We are up shi tcreek without a paddle i'm afraid.

The Euro won't melt down because of our referendum decision, believe me. We might be the only country left using a worthless version of the Euro as the other core countries create a new stable currency to carry on with however, but it will be the spirit of thze Euro while we have the Euro in name only.