[stringed theory]

Sarkozy will need the support of the senate to ratify the treaty if he loses control of the assembly in june. If he doesn't get this support he will hold a referendum, something that M Fillon has mentioned before, but not the president - and really, this is only a subtle change in direction, recognizing what everyone knows anyway = that he might not be able to ratify the treaty, even if re elected ( and it's a story I couldn't actually find anywhere today in le figaro, or liberation, for example) and it's not quite the HAMMER BLOW that the London Telegraph likes to gloat about

from french yahoo

"Avant la fin de l'année 2012, je ferai voter la règle d'or (...) qui obligera une nouvelle majorité à tendre vers le déficit zéro", a déclaré le chef de l'Etat, candidat à un second mandat, lors d'un meeting à Cernay, en Alsace.

"Tous les pays d'Europe se sont engagés à le faire", a-t-il ajouté. "Si le Sénat devait s'opposer à l'adoption de cette règle, avant la fin de l'année 2012, j'organiserai un référendum pour demander au peuple français ce qu'il en pense."

Nothing really new about Hollande's position either. He's always wanted to renegotiate. The anglo-american media always spin these stories to suit their agenda.

[hatrickpatrick]

If Hollande gets elected, it could well mean the end of the Franco-German bully circle at long last. Dare we to hope?

You can almost taste Merkel's alarm at these developments

[Scofflaw]

In a further entertaining development, Angela Merkel has said that the Treaty can't be renegotiated because, amongst other things, there's an Irish referendum on it:

Merkel: The fiscal pact is negotiated, he was signed by 25 heads of government and has been ratified by Portugal and Greece. Parliaments throughout Europe are about to adopt it. In Ireland, it takes place in late May a referendum. He is not renegotiable. The subject of growth, the reminder for some time now, is also in addition to the already strong finances, the second pillar of our policy.

http://translate.google.com/translat...id6597382.html

amused,
Scofflaw

[beeftotheheels]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

In a further entertaining development, Angela Merkel has said that the Treaty can't be renegotiated because, amongst other things, there's an Irish referendum on it:



http://translate.google.com/translat...id6597382.html

amused,
Scofflaw

Now there's a woman with her finger on the pulse of Irish public opinion!

[golden lane]

it is one line.....as yours is.......but a very serious one.......

[carveone]

Both oneliners have vanished anyway!

Originally Posted by Wild Bill

The treaty is now dead.

I'm more in agreement with what the Taniste said in France today (I'm paraphrasing) where he said that the fiscal compact would still go ahead and Holland's demand for growth-boosting elements to be included wouldn't be an issue, it would be welcomed.

I guess we'll have to see what he (Hollande) says in the next day or two but I think discussion with the Germans will be taking place pretty promptly if they haven't already. I'd be awfully surprised if the compact was dumped but you wouldn't find me taking bets on it

Edit: Ooops. Sorry K9, as soon as I stepped into a mod's shoes I knew I shouldn't have

[K-9]

Originally Posted by golden lane

it is one line.....as yours is.......but a very serious one.......

Originally Posted by carveone

Both oneliners have vanished anyway!

Cut out the one liners please and keep it on topic.

[Wild Bill]

Originally Posted by K-9

Cut out the one liners please and keep it on topic.

The treaty we are to vote "yes" for on May 31st is dead.

The treaty is supported by illegitimate Government parties that lied their way to power.

These parties are, in my opinion, guilty of treason.

OK?

[K-9]

Originally Posted by Wild Bill

The treaty we are to vote "yes" for on May 31st is dead.

The treaty is supported by illegitimate Government parties that lied their way to power.

These parties are, in my opinion, guilty of treason.

OK?

As per the charter you cannot go around claiming groups are guilty of treason, especially without evidence, in my opinion isn't an excuse.

[FreudianSlippers]

His additions to the treaty seem very minor and insignificant to me... I'd imagine they will be sorted out and added overnight without requirement for Ireland to alter the referendum.

[Ozymandius2011]

Originally Posted by FreudianSlippers

His additions to the treaty seem very minor and insignificant to me... I'd imagine they will be sorted out and added overnight without requirement for Ireland to alter the referendum.

That is unclear, and Merkel is reported on the radio today as opposing the addition of pro-growth measures that would increase borrowing, which Hollande has said he wants. Merkel also has a lot to prove with elections on the way next year and the Social Democrats scepticism about the Treaty. Bear in mind the latter party controls the Bundesrat and can block ratification. If she is seen as caving into to demands for more runaway public spending at the expense of the German taxpayer then it's electoral curtains for her.

[ouncer]

the treaty over its history can be seen as something that is being made up as it goes along. now this is understandable as new ground is been broken. however with hollande now in place, the german tax payer sick of the cost, greece going right wing because of austerity, new netherlands government because of deep discontent it does seem that this is a boiling pot. i would rather that ireland wasn't next in the firing line with the referendum because a 'NO' vote could simply be the final straw. and then what happens to europe.

I always believed in the concept of the euro currency to allow ease of business across international boundaries. My, maybe simplistic viewpoint, is that the Euro project has since taken on a life that sits uncomfortably with many. Currency is one thing, fiscal controls is another. I guess it is not Europes fault that its participants went financially haywire, and Europe is now left to pick up the mess or call it a day