Seven years later [Zombie thread split] - boards.ie
Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
05-03-2012, 03:36   #1
risteard7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 417
Seven years later [Zombie thread split]

Quote:
Originally Posted by DublinWriter View Post
...and there's the essential flaw in your plan.

No offense to you dude, but that's a real 'head in the sand' attitude.

The first flaw in your arguement is that the cost of property, in the long economic term, only goes in one direction - up.

If you think the same apartment will cost you the exact same in five years time then you're out of your mind.

I'll bet you anything that the apt that cost you 400,000 today will cost you 600,000 in 2010.

The second flaw in your arguement is that you're assuming that interest rates will stay at their current historic low over the next five years. Oil prices hit an all time high today and the trend looks like it will continue, driving up inflation and interest rates in the long term.

There's only been one good time to buy property and that time is now.
mmmmm
risteard7 is offline  
Advertisement
05-03-2012, 08:36   #2
shangri la
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 937
Quote:
Originally Posted by DublinWriter View Post
Bascially I don't think any localised factors will come into play in influencing a drop in house prices.

The main factor will be global/EU inflation over the next ten years.

As oil is starting to skyrocket it looks like we maybe in for a bumpy ride re inflation and it could turn all into the 70's again.

Economic patterns on the whole are generally cyclical and we are due for a massive global recession around about now.

Certainly I wouldn't use *any* excuse to hold off buying property right now.

On the whole, you never lose money with bricks and mortar in this country. After the currency crisis in the UK in the early 90's, property prices rebounded and then some.
the good old days... 2005.

I wonder how this person fared or was it a young one who didn't buy.

Last edited by shangri la; 05-03-2012 at 08:39.
shangri la is offline  
Thanks from:
05-03-2012, 09:16   #3
Zamboni
Registered User
 
Zamboni's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,805
Awesome zombie thread.
Zamboni is offline  
05-03-2012, 09:30   #4
Solair
Closed Account
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 7,073
It illustrates quite nicely just how naive most people were about the absolute collapse that was only around the corner!
Solair is offline  
05-03-2012, 09:30   #5
Newaglish
Registered User
 
Newaglish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,294
I read over some of the 2005/2006 threads in A&P sometimes as they give some really interesting insights into attitudes at the time. It's like a time capsule filled with ignorance.
Newaglish is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
05-03-2012, 10:07   #6
smallerthanyou
Registered User
 
smallerthanyou's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Sticks
Posts: 960
Wow. That is all.

My favourite quote "Property prices will not go down .... full stop."
smallerthanyou is offline  
(2) thanks from:
05-03-2012, 10:37   #7
Newaglish
Registered User
 
Newaglish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,294
Quote:
Originally Posted by smallerthanyou View Post
Wow. That is all.

My favourite quote "Property prices will not go down .... full stop."
What about this gem?

Quote:
I'll bet you anything that the apt that cost you 400,000 today will cost you 600,000 in 2010.
Newaglish is offline  
05-03-2012, 10:38   #8
shangri la
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 937
Quote:
Originally Posted by whizzbang View Post
And the Graph for the UK http://www.firsttimebuyerhelp.co.uk/...youarehere.gif

ignore the fact that prices dropped 50% after the other two peaks, That was only for erm, several years, property prices do not go down!
August '05.

Well done.
shangri la is offline  
05-03-2012, 10:39   #9
shangri la
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 937
Quote:
Originally Posted by Culchie View Post
oh nice website !

I especially like the "Why rent is not dead money " article Listen Whizzbang, I hope there are plenty who think like you, because in another 3 or 4 years, I'll have a house I bought to let in 1998 paid off. That isn't meant to be a smart comment, but the reality of the situation. Rent is dead money. If you can afford to buy a house, go ahead and do it. Why should you be paying off my mortgage, when you can be paying off your own? P.S Looks like a good time to invest in Japanese Land then
the very next post.
shangri la is offline  
Advertisement
05-03-2012, 10:43   #10
shangri la
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 937
Quote:
Originally Posted by whizzbang View Post
I'm happy for you that your house to let will be paid off (10 year mortgage?), I couldn't afford a house in 98 and I can't afford one now.

I'm looking at it like this.

I pay rent of $575 a Month Option A Buy Appartment now Pay ?1,796 a month mortgate (?400,000, 30 years, 3.5%) Let say ?1450 per month of that is interest for first 5 years After 5 years I have paid out ?107,760 Of which ?87,000 is interest and ?20,000 is paid off the principle I finish paying the mortgage and pay a total of ?646,624.35 Option B I wait 5 years, Pay ?575 a month on rent = ?6,900 a year Save ?350 a month (difference between mortgage and interest) After 5 years time I have paid out ?34,500 in rent I have saved ?20,000 I get a 25 year mortage on ?380,000 (400,000 - 20,000) Total repayments for which total to ?570,710.87 Add on the rent I spent in the 5 years waiting ?34,500 Add on the ?20,000 I saved Total outlay of ?625,210 ?20,000 less than if I bought now. The only reason this makes sense is that I believe that 5 years time house prices will be less than now. So I am effectivly paying ?34,500 to put off making the decision so I can see if I'm right. Seeing as rents are a lot less than paying the interest on a mortgage it is currently worthwhile to continue to pay rent to put off buying a house to see if prices decrease. If rents rise significantly I have to buy as the number no longer work out, if house prises rise significantly I have to buy as number dont' work out. If house prices drop (which I think they will), or stay level I'm in the money Ireland is not immune to Negative Equity! for some reason people think we are! J
post of the thread!
shangri la is offline  
(2) thanks from:
05-03-2012, 11:46   #11
noxqs
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 411
I love reading this forum back to 2005/2006. This is stuff future and current historians should be salivating over.

Many of the cheerleaders who were frequent posters back then for years, havent said a peep since 2008. I remember a quote:

Quote:
"either way a property bought as an investment for the purpose of living in serves that purpose regardless of booms/crashes etc. Its not like stocks and shares."
This kind of insane "investment" advice from self proclaimed gurus probably influenced a lot of people to do some bad choices. These people boasted about their multiple investment properties, I wonder how that went for them.

Anyways - enough schadenfreude - but it should be sobering food for thought should you ever find yourself in a market where this is repeating.
noxqs is offline  
05-03-2012, 13:26   #12
shangri la
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 937
Quote:
Originally Posted by noxqs View Post
but it should be sobering food for thought should you ever find yourself in a market where this is repeating.
david mcwilliams reckons this is the current situation in australia.
shangri la is offline  
05-03-2012, 13:32   #13
StillWaters
Closed Account
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,776
Canada looks bubble like also.
StillWaters is offline  
05-03-2012, 14:50   #14
Spiritofthekop
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 430
Quote:
Originally Posted by DublinWriter View Post
...and there's the essential flaw in your plan.

No offense to you dude, but that's a real 'head in the sand' attitude.

The first flaw in your arguement is that the cost of property, in the long economic term, only goes in one direction - up.

If you think the same apartment will cost you the exact same in five years time then you're out of your mind.

I'll bet you anything that the apt that cost you 400,000 today will cost you 600,000 in 2010.

The second flaw in your arguement is that you're assuming that interest rates will stay at their current historic low over the next five years. Oil prices hit an all time high today and the trend looks like it will continue, driving up inflation and interest rates in the long term.

There's only been one good time to buy property and that time is now.
Can we get Dublinwriter back in the thread please....I've a few questions for him!!
Spiritofthekop is offline  
(3) thanks from:
05-03-2012, 15:14   #15
Ritchi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
Good reading in this thread. It seems that the few who bucked the trend turned out to be right.

Everyone now is saying it's a bad time to buy...
Ritchi is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet