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20-02-2012, 01:14   #106
Joe Public
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I'm thinking of changing my username to Con Census, wouln't it get me in with a fair chance every competition without going through a sh1t load of formulas and mathematical modelling.
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20-02-2012, 15:43   #107
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sometimes the more you know Joe the worse it goes
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01-03-2012, 16:30   #108
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Februrary data are now official and they are:

IMT 7.1 C

prc 62% of normal

These give us the seasonal averages of

IMT 6.5 C

prc 89% of normal

The lowest temperature of the month is so far the lowest of the season ... at -6.3 C (Mullingar, 2nd). By the rules, any lower temperature before 15 April will count so this may not be a finished category. Also, no measured snowfall at Casement yet, but same time scale as above.

The highest temperature in the Monthly Summary was 15.0 C at Phoenix Park. An earlier report of 15.5 C at Moore Park is not confirmed. By the rules we must take the 15.0 as our contest value ... and that period is closed.

I will update the scoring as a preliminary final score after handling the monthly (February) contest scoring. This may mean some time tomorrow for a report on the scoring.
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01-03-2012, 22:34   #109
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Provisional final scoring for the winter forecast contest
_______________________________________________________

Seasonal minimum temperature (now -6.3 C), Casement snowfall (now at zero cms) are subject to change until the deadline of 15 April. The snowfall can reach 7.5 cms before any scores will change. These scores will be confirmed or adjusted as necessary on 15 April with the winner announced at that time.

Forecaster . IMT (DJF - s) ........ PRC (DJF - s) ........... MAX . MIN . GUST . SNOW .... POINTS
________________________________________________________________________________

max points..... 5 ... 5 ... 5 ... 15 ...... 5 ... 5 ... 5 ..... 15 .... 10 . 10 .. 10 . 10 ... 100

traecy1 ........ 4.5 . 4.0 . 2.0 .. 11 .. 2.5 . 4.5 . 4.5 .. 08 .... 10 .. 10 .. 8 .. 10 ... 79.0

nilhg ............ 4.5 . 5.0 . 4.0 .. 15 .. 3.5 . 2.0 . 1.0 .. 04 .... 08 .. 09 .. 8 ... 9 ... 73.0
Strasser........ 5.0 . 4.0 . 5.0 .. 14 .. 5.0 . 4.5 . 1.5 .. 06 .... 02 .. 09 .. 10 .. 6 .. 72.0
Sponge Bob ... 4.0 . 5.0 . 3.0 .. 13 .. 3.5 . 4.5 . 2.5 .. 11 .... 09 .. 05 .. 1 .. 10 .. 71.5
eskimocat ..... 3.5 . 3.5 . 4.0 .. 12 .. 3.5 . 0.5 . 4.0 .. 12 .... 05 .. 09 .. 7 .. 6 ... 70.0
John mac ..... 3.5 . 4.5 . 2.5 .. 13 .. 3.0 . 3.0 . 3.0 .. 09 .... 06 .. 07 ... 5 .. 10 .. 69.5
Wild Bill ........ 4.0 . 4.0 . 2.5 .. 11 .. 3.5 . 4.0 . 4.5 .. 12 .... 04 .. 10 .. 0 ... 9 .... 68.5
kindredspirit . 4.0 . 2.0 . 3.5 .. 10 .. 5.0 . 1.0 . 3.0 .. 15 .... 06 .. 10 .. 4 ... 5 .... 68.5
homolumo .... 2.0 . 1.0 . 4.5 .. 08 .. 5.0 . 3.5 . 5.0 .. 15 .... 08 .. 03 .. 2 ... 9 ... 66.0
Harps ........... 1.5 . 2.5 . 2.5 .. 09 .. 5.0 . 1.5 . 1.0 .. 08 .... 09 .. 08 .. 8 ... 8 ... 64.0
Joe Public ..... 5.0 . 1.5 . 0.5 .. 06 .. 3.5 . 2.5 . 5.0 .. 14 .... 06 .. 04 .. 8 ... 6 ... 62.0

Con Sensus .. 2.5 . 2.5 . 2.0 .. 09 .. 3.5 . 5.0 . 2.5 .. 10 .... 10 .. 04 .. 7 ... 4 .... 62.0

Su Campu ..... 3.5 . 4.5 . 3.5 .. 13 .. 3.5 . 5.0 . 1.5 .. 07 .... 03 .. 07 .. 1 ... 9 .. 61.5
dsmythy ....... 3.5 . 4.5 . 4.0 .. 13 .. 4.5 . 1.0 . 0.0 .. 06 .... 09 .. 08 .. 0 ... 8 ... 61.5
scary ........... 0.5 . 2.0 . 3.0 .. 06 .. 3.0 . 4.5 . 4.0 .. 12 .... 07 .. 05 .. 7 ... 7 ... 61.0
M.T. Cranium 3.0 . 0.5 . 5.0 .. 09 .. 5.0 . 2.5 . 5.0 .. 15 .... 05 ... 00 .. 9 ... 2 ... 61.0
talkabout ..... 5.0 . 3.0 . 1.0 .. 09 .. 2.5 . 4.0 . 2.0 .. 09 .... 09 .. 07 .. 1 ... 8 .... 60.5
nacho libre ... 2.5 . 3.5 . 5.0 .. 12 .. 1.0 . 1.0 . 2.0 .. 06 .... 06 .. 05 .. 10 .. 5 ... 59.0
pauldry ........ 3.0 . 3.0 . 5.0 .. 14 .. 1.0 . 5.0 . 2.5 .. 04 .... 01 .. 08 .. 4 ... 8 .... 58.5
MiNdGaM3 .... 4.5 . 2.0 . 4.0 .. 10 .. 2.5 . 3.0 . 1.0 .. 05 .... 04 .. 08 .. 8 ... 3 ... 55.0
okla ............ 2.0 . 2.5 . 1.5 .. 08 .. 2.0 . 3.0 . 4.5 .. 13 .... 08 .. 06 .. 4 ... 4 ... 58.5
Elmer Blooker. 1.5 . 5.0 . 4.0 .. 15 .. 0.5 . 0.0 . 1.0 .. 03 .... 06 .. 09 .. 2 .. 10 ... 57.0
flying11 ....... 2.5 . 3.0 . 2.0 .. 09 .. 4.0 . 1.0 . 4.0 .. 15 .... 02 .. 07 .. 4 ... 3 ... 56.5
oterra ......... 1.0 . 5.0 . 4.5 .. 15 .. 0.5 . 3.0 . 1.0 .. 08 .... 04 .. 04 .. 5 ... 4 ... 55.0
Danno*........ 5.0 . 2.0 . 1.0 .. 09 .. 0.0 . 3.5 . 5.0 .. 11 .... 01 .. 06 .. 4 .. 7 .... 54.5
200motels .... 4.5 . 4.0 . 5.0 .. 14 .. 0.5 . 0.5 . 0.5 .. 02 .... 03 .. 06 .. 4 ... 9 ... 53.0
WolfeIRE ...... 2.0 . 2.5 . 1.5 .. 08 .. 3.5 . 4.0 . 3.0 .. 05 .... 10 .. 01 .. 7 ... 5 ... 52.5
NIALL D ....... 1.5 . 2.0 . 0.5 .. 04 .. 5.0 . 3.5 . 2.0 .. 10 .... 10 .. 04 .. 7 ... 3 ... 52.5
thetonynator. 0.5 . 0.0 . 2.5 .. 3.0 .. 2.0 . 2.0 . 3.0 .. 14 .... 05 .. 10 .. 5 ... 5 ... 52.0
Iancar29 ...... 4.5 . 3.5 . 2.0 .. 12 .. 2.0 . 1.5 . 4.0 .. 10 .... 01 .. 03 .. 2 ... 6 .... 51.5
H2UMrsRob'n . 0.5 . 0.5 . 1.5 .. 10 .. 1.5 . 5.0 . 2.0 .. 10 .... 07 .. 02 .. 5 ... 5 .. 50.0
Mmcd ......... 0.0 . 1.0 . 3.0 .. 03 .. 1.0 . 1.5 . 1.0 .. 13 .... 06 .. 03 .. 10 ... 7 ... 49.5
Rebelbrowser. 0.5 . 1.5 . 4.0 .. 06 .. 2.5 . 2.5 . 0.5 .. 10 .... 04 .. 05 .. 7 ... 4 ... 47.5
baraca ........ 0.0 . 1.0 . 1.0 .. 02 .. 2.5 . 1.5 . 3.5 .. 12 .... 10 .. 03 .. 10 ... 1 ... 47.5
Rougies ....... 1.0 . 0.5 . 4.5 .. 04 .. 4.0 . 3.0 . 4.0 .. 15 .... 06 .. 02 .. 1 ... 2 .... 47.0
snowstreams. 3.5 . 1.5 . 1.0 .. 04 .. 4.0 . 3.5 . 3.0 .. 12 .... 03 .. 06 .. 2 ... 3 .... 46.5
karl tyrrell .... 0.0 . 3.0 . 4.0 .. 06 .. 1.0 . 5.0 . 0.0 .. 04 .... 10 .. 00 .. 9 ... 1 ... 43.0
Deep Easterly 2.0 . 5.0 . 0.0 .. 07 .. 0.0 . 0.0 . 3.5 .. 01 .... 06 .. 05 .. 10 .. 3 ... 42.5
bb1234567*.. 1.0 . 0.0 . 3.5 .. 02 .. 5.0 . 0.0 . 0.0 .. 12 .... 09 .. 01 .. 8 ... 1 .... 42.5
cdev ........... 0.5 . 0.0 . 1.5 .. 02 .. 2.0 . 3.5 . 1.5 .. 07 .... 08 .. 01 .. 7 ... 1 .... 35.0
jdee99 ........ 3.5 . 1.0 . 0.5 .. 03 .. 4.0 . 2.0 . 3.5 .. 06 .... 00 .. 02 ... 1 ... 8 ..... 34.5
waterways ... 4.0 . 4.0 . 0.0 .. 06 .. 0.0 . 2.5 . 4.5 .. 02 .... 03 .. 02 .. 3 ... 3 .... 34.0
BLIZZARD7 ... 2.0 . 0.0 . 0.0 .. 01 .. 3.0 . 0.5 . 4.0 .. 04 .... 08 .. 00 .. 10 ... 0 .... 31.5
redsunset .... 0.0 . 0.0 . 2.0 .. 01 .. 0.5 . 4.0 . 1.5 .. 13 .... 03 .. 00 ... 4 ... 0 ..... 28.0

______________________________________________

Looking at predictions, the order of finish among the top three could theoretically change near the top if there is 20-30 cms of snow and a colder temperature than -7.5 C. This would give Strasser a chance to win. Nilhg is boxed in by his similar forecasts to leader traecy1 and appears to have no chance of overtaking the leader. For Sponge Bob in fourth place, his much colder (than top three contestants) prediction of -11.1 C would need to verify, without any heavy snowfalls, to have any chance.

Anyone else is probably "mathematically eliminated" at this point.

Please let me know if you find any errors in the totals. I checked the top half rather carefully.

A final contest announcement will take place on 16 April so we'll hold off on any congratulations at present.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 01-03-2012 at 22:45.
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06-04-2012, 20:29   #110
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The two big December storms were 8th and 13th Dec. Max 78Kt holds. The 91Kt biggie was 03 January I think.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/dec11.pdf

Looks like a late rather than mid April release date for the Jan Bulletin with Winter Bulletin included. Hopefully it won't magic up some Casement snow for Sponge Bob.

Last edited by Sponge Bob; 06-04-2012 at 20:33.
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06-04-2012, 23:15   #111
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I've been watching the daily synops and there hasn't been any measurable snow this winter at Casement, contest amount remains "0.0" from traces. The contest is all but done and I can't see any signs in the model runs of conditions that would change the outcome. But will hold off to 16 April to declare a winner.
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06-04-2012, 23:57   #112
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just a minimalist chance on Tuesday maybe MT. If April was December wed have snow.
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07-04-2012, 04:30   #113
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Also note that we would need more than 7.6 cms of snow to change the scoring since we go by rank and not absolute error. So if 1-3 cms of snow happened to fall at Casement some day next week it would not change any scores. The minimum temperature would also have to fall below -7 C. That would seem very unlikely too. Another "by the way" the scoring is done on the basis of monthly summaries, I expect the later publications (monthly bulletins) to have essentially the same information compiled but if they changed something I would not be inclined to change the scoring on that basis since the rules stated "monthly summary" as scoring source where feasible, and for snowfall we have the daily data that so far has been largely superfluous.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 07-04-2012 at 04:34.
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16-04-2012, 08:04   #114
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Congratulations to traecy1 for winning the Second Annual Winter Forecast Contest. The points table remains unchanged from the provisional estimates given a few posts back in the thread. Nilhg was second, and Strasser finished third, followed closely by Sponge Bob and eskimocat.

The only thing missing from our winter forecast contest was winter. Otherwise, thanks for taking part, and traecy1, look for a PM.
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16-04-2012, 23:28   #115
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Thank you very much MT Cranium for the time and effort you put into these competitions. Never expected to win anything so it was a pleasant surprise to see that I was at the top.
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17-04-2012, 00:00   #116
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Congratulations Traecy, a clear winner on the end, spend your winnings wisely

A top ten place for me, happy with that considering my consistently bad performance in the monthly comps. Beating Con Sensus is always a bonus as well!

Thanks to MT goes without saying, great amount of effort as always
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17-04-2012, 14:44   #117
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Well done to Traecy1 and many thanks to MT and all the others who give their time and experience to run these competitions.


Roll on the sommer comp, I'm thinking it's going to be a scorcher (or maybe I'm in Fergie mode trying to psych the opposition out of it)
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