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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???
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This is probably a silly question
I am just wondering do met services measure actual direct, unscreened air temperatures? The reason I ask is that would this be a way of being able to measure in some way the actual direct heat of the sun on the earth's surface. Of course, you would need to be recording such a parameter in a sunny location
, but would this give an idea? 0 -
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Yes they do by using Black Bulb thermometers, but it is solar radiation you are thinking about and the data is on page 7 of the monthly bulletins.Deep Easterly wrote: »This is probably a silly question
I am just wondering do met services measure actual direct, unscreened air temperatures? The reason I ask is that would this be a way of being able to measure in some way the actual direct heat of the sun on the earth's surface. Of course, you would need to be recording such a parameter in a sunny location, but would this give an idea?0 -
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Paper is longer so I have taken pieces of this and made it shorter.
Just another opinion
The Sun is Undergoing a State Change
by James A. MarusekBackground
Each morning, I turn on my computer and check to see how the sun is doing. For the past several years I was normally greeted with the message "The sun is blank - no sunspots." We are at the verge of the next sunspot cycle, Solar Cycle 24. How intense will this cycle be? Why is this question important? Because there are “Danger Signposts” ahead!
We are currently in a solar minimum leading up to Solar Cycle 24, so named because it is the 24th consecutive cycle that astronomers have observed and listed. The first cycle began in March 1755.
Figure 1. Image of Solar Cycle 23 from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
(SOHO) by Steele Hill (NASA GSFC)
The sun exhibits great variability in the strength of each solar cycle. Some solar cycles produce a high number of sunspots. Other solar cycles produce low numbers. When a group of cycles occur together with high number of sunspots, this is referred to as a solar “Grand Maxima”. When a group of cycles occur with minimal sunspots, this is referred to as a solar “Grand Minima”. Usoskin details the reconstruction of solar activity during the Holocene period from 10,000 B.C. to the present.1 Refer to Figure 2. The red areas on the graph denote energetic solar “Grand Maxima” states. The blue areas denote quiet solar “Grand Minima” states.
The reconstructions indicate that the overall level of solar activity since the middle of the 20th century stands amongst the highest of the past 10,000 years. This time period was a very strong “Grand Maxima”. Typically these grand maxima are short-lived lasting in the order of 50 years. The reconstruction also reveals “Grand Minima” epochs of suppressed activity, of varying durations have occurred repeatedly over that time span.
A solar Grand Minima is defined as a period when the (smoothed) sunspot number is less than 15 during at least two consecutive decades. The sun spends about 17 percent of the time in a Grand Minima state. Examples of recent extremely quiet solar “Grand Minima” are the Maunder Minimum (about 1645-1715 A.D.) and Spörer Minimum (about 1420-1570 A.D.)
Figure 2. Sunspot activity throughout the Holocene. Blue and red areas denote grand
minima and maxima, respectively. The entire series is spread out over two panels for
better visibility.1
By monitoring the number of spotless days (days without sunspots) during a solar minimum, scientists can gain a sense of the intensity of the upcoming solar cycle. As of the end of December 2009, the cumulative number of spotless days in the transition into Solar Cycle 24 now stands at 771. The number of spotless days is beginning to tapper off. There were only 10 spotless days in December.
The transitions into Solar Cycles (SC16-23), referred to as recent solar cycles (years 1923 to ~2008), averaged 362 cumulative spotless days. Those minimums ranged from 227 – 568 spotless days. Since the current transition now exceeds this range, it is fairly clear that the sun is undergoing a state change.
The solar Grand Maxima state that has persisted during most of the 20th century is coming to an abrupt end. The old solar cycles (SC 10-15, years 1856 to 1923) averaged 797 spotless days, over twice that of the recent solar cycles. Those solar minimums ranged from 406 - 1028 spotless days.2 If this solar minimum ends soon, as it appears to be doing, then the upcoming solar cycle may be similar to the old solar cycles.
The sun has gone magnetically quiet as it transitions to Solar Cycle 24. The Average Magnetic Planetary Index (Ap index) is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field on Earth. It is commonly referred to a measuring stick for solar magnetic activity. For 11 months, from November 2008 to September 2009, the Ap index had been hovering near rock bottom with reading of 4’s and 5’s. But in the last two months, October and November, the Ap monthly index broke through the glass floor and spawned the lowest value in the past 77 years with a reading of "3". And then in December, the AP Index even went quieter with a reading of "2". 3
Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with high-energy galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These are charged particles (protons, ions) that originate from exploding stars (supernovas). Many of these particles are traveling near the speed of light. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system. This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth.
But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. Currently the sun's interplanetary magnetic field has fallen to around 4 nano-Tesla (nT) from a typical value of 6 to 8 nT.
The solar wind pressure is down to a 50-year low. The heliospheric current sheet is flattening. In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen since satellite measurements began 50 years ago. 4
If we slip into a quiet solar "Grand Minima" state, we can expect GCR flux rates to increase 200% to 300% above current levels.
The sun has been in a “Grand Maxima” for most of the past century. This has accounted for much of the natural warming the earth has experienced.
But as evident in the high number of spotless days in this solar minimum, the sun is changing states. It might (1) level off and revert to the old solar cycles or (2) the sun might go even quieter magnetically slipping into a “Dalton Minimum” or a solar Grand Minima such as the “Maunder Minimum”. It is still a little early to predict which way it will swing.Quiet Sun Threat
There are some scientists that believe the sun, rather than leveling off into a new state in Solar Cycle 24, will continue to free fall throughout this solar cycle. Several scientists including David Hathaway (NASA)8, William Livingston & Matthew Penn (National Solar Observatory)9, Khabibullo Abdusamatov (Russian Academy of Science)10, Cornelis de Jager (The Netherlands) & S. Duhau (Argentina)11 and Theodor Landscheidt (Germany)12, have forecasted that the sun may enter a period similar to the Dalton Minimum or a more severe “Grand Minima” (such as the Maunder Minimum or Spörer Minimum), a decade from now in Solar Cycle 25.
A few scientists including David C. Archibald (Australia)13 and M. A. Clilverd (Britain)14 have warned this might even begin in Solar Cycle 24. We are at the transition into Solar Cycle 24 and this cycle has already shown itself to be unusually quiet.
The sun is a major force controlling natural climate change on Earth. Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with cosmic rays. These are high-speed charged particles (protons, ions) that originate from exploding stars. Many of these particles are moving close to the speed of light. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system.
This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth. But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. As a result, far greater numbers collide with Earth and penetrate down into the lower atmosphere where they ionize small particles of moisture (humidity) forming them into water droplets that become clouds. Charged raindrops are ten to a hundred times more efficient in capturing aerosols than uncharged drops. Low clouds tend to be optically thick and are efficient at reflecting sunlight back into space. A large increase in Earth's cloud cover produces a global drop in temperature.
Galactic cosmic rays are a very effective amplifying mechanism for climate forcing because the energy needed to change cloudiness is small compared with the resulting changes in solar radiation received at the Earth’s surface.
Earth’s ocean cloud cover is strongly correlated with GCR flux modulated by solar cycle variations. Refer to Figure 3.
Figure 3. A strong correlation between Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Earth’s cloud cover
over the oceans. This figure shows cosmic rays fluxes from Climax (thick curve) plotted against four satellite cloud data sets. Triangles are the Nimbus-7 satellite data, squares are the ISCCP-C2 data, diamonds are the DMSP data, and crosses are the ISCCP-D2 data.15In 2006, the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen conducted experimental studies of aerosol nucleation in air, containing trace amounts of ozone, sulfur dioxide and water vapor at concentrations representative of Earth’s atmosphere over the oceans. Their experiments confirmed the causal mechanism by which cosmic rays facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere.16 Specifically the experiments showed that (1) stable cloud aerosol clusters were formed in the presence of ions, (2) the nucleation rate was proportional to the ion density, (3) the characteristic time for producing stable clusters was very short (2 seconds or less).
This theory is not an abstract threat but rather a very real one grounded in historical observations. The last solar Grand Minima was the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 AD). During the 30-year period from 1672-1699 AD, there were less than 50 sunspots detected, whereas during the past century over the same period between 40,000-50,000 sunspots normally would appear. The Maunder Minimum corresponded to the depths of the Little Ice Age. Before that was the Spörer Minimum (about 1420 to 1570 A.D.). That Grand Minima was also noted for bone-chilling cold temperatures and was referred to as a Little Ice Age.
The threat from a quiet sun is describe in the Solar Grand Minima Threat Analysis.17 Historically past solar “Grand Minima’s” produced a global drop in world temperatures. Food production declined due to shortened growing seasons, unpredictable early frost, a dramatic increase of days with overcast skies and a resulting decline in the intensity of sunlight. With diminished food production, a string of famines occurred. Added cloud cover also produced greater rainfall, massive storms and floods. For example during the Spörer Minimum, approximately 400,000 people perished in the A.D. 1570 “All Saints Day storm” in northwestern Europe.
And two catastrophic storms hit England and the Netherlands in A.D. 1421 and A.D. 1446, each storm killing 100,000. Flooding created swamplands that became mosquito breeding grounds and introduced tropical diseases such as malaria throughout Europe.18 During the Little Ice Age, glaciers expanded rapidly in Greenland, Iceland, Scandinavia and North America. This caused vast tracts of land to become uninhabitable. The Arctic ice pack expanded into the far south. Several reports describe Eskimos landing their kayaks in Scotland. Finland’s population fell by one-third, Iceland’s by a half, the Viking colonies in Greenland were abandoned altogether, as were many Inuit communities.19
This threat is not a short-term threat but extends over several decades. Of the 27 “Grand Minima’s” that have occurred over the past 12,000 years: 30% lasted less than 50 years, 52% lasted between 50 and 100 years, and 18% lasted over 100 years. Of these, the longest was Spörer Minimum, which lasted approximately 150 years.
GLOBAL WARMING SCAREIn the Man-Made Global Warming scare, it is alleged that man-made industrial emissions of carbon dioxide are increasingly trapping heat, which would otherwise escape from our atmosphere, thus causing global warming. It is further believed that this increasing carbon dioxide level will reach a tipping point where the world will heat up to the point that life will no longer be sustainable on the planet.
The consensus among scientists in support of the man-made global warming theory has been grossly exaggerated. For example, over 31,000 American scientists signed the following petition "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth."20 This number of scientists is not a trivial number.
By taking this stance many scientists place their careers in jeopardy. This is because the global warming lobby is very powerful and vindictive. The scientists that signed this petition believe in the scientific principles of openness, falsifiability, replicability and independent review. When the integrity of science is at stake, they are willing to step forward and be counted.
The primary greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere is not carbon dioxide. Rather, it is water vapor. Water vapor is directly responsible for the Earth’s present climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride are only minor constituents in Earth’s atmosphere and produce only very minimal effects on our climate.
Life on Earth is based on the carbon atom. Carbon dioxide is part of the fabric of life. Declaring carbon dioxide a pollutant is scientifically unsound. Without carbon dioxide; plants would quickly die. Even humans require some carbon dioxide to survive. Over the last 350 million years carbon dioxide levels have varied between 250 parts per million (ppm) and 2,500 ppm with an average level of around 1,500 ppm. This average level (1,500 ppm) happens to be an optimum level for many plants. Present atmospheric carbon dioxide level is currently on the low side at387 ppm.
Consider that individuals with respiratory problems are routinely given oxygen. Oxygen concentrators remove nitrogen from the air and provide 95 percent pure oxygen along with argon, other trace gases and over 1,500 ppm carbon dioxide. The American Industrial Hygiene Association (AIHA) reports that only when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reach 100,000 ppm that the gas becomes immediately dangerous to human life.21
Satellites provide generally the most accurate atmospheric temperature measurements covering the entire globe. Average yearly lower Troposphere temperatures (relative to the 1979-1998 average) were as follows: 1998 (0.512°C.), 1999 (0.040°C), 2000 (0.035°C), 2001 (0.198°C), 2002 (0.311°C), 2003 (0.275°C), 2004 (0.195°C), 2005 (0.338°C), 2006 (0.260°C), 2007 (0.282°C), 2008 (0.048°C), and 2009 (0.259°C) according to the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) LT5.2 satellite data.22
Comparing the peak year 1998 to the present, the lower
troposphere temperature is currently a 1/4 degree Celsius colder. This is despite the fact that over that same time period, atmospheric carbon dioxide (at Mauna Loa) has risen 20 ppm or 5% from 367 ppm to 387 ppm. The manmade global warming theory failed to predict this trend. The falling temperatures occurred at the same time as the sun produced minimal sunspots as it is transitioned into Solar Cycle 24.
There will be some that might argue that the year 1998 was a temperature anomaly. Indeed, they would be correct. But the elevated temperatures observed that year were used to drive fear into the hearts of many people that the Earth had finally reached a tipping point and this was proof-positive that man-made global warming was a hard fact instead of just a hypothesis based on untested (unvalidated) computer models.
Analysis of ice core data through glacial/interglacial transitions shows an association between carbon dioxide and temperature. But the climatic temperature always changed first and carbon dioxide levels followed. There is a measurable lag time of 400 – 1,000 years.23 Therefore; it is earth’s temperature that is driving atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rather than carbon dioxide levels driving temperature. Why is this the case? It is because the oceans stores vast quantities of carbon dioxide; far greater than our atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is soluble in water. This solubility decreases as the water temperature increases. As the world’s oceans gently warm naturally, carbon dioxide is released into Earth’s atmosphere.
The Earth’s atmosphere is fairly stable and resilient. Carbon dioxide levels during the Ordovician period (which began 490 million years ago and ended around 443 million years ago) were approximately 5,000 ppm, but these high-levels of carbon dioxide did not throw our world into runaway global warming.24 So if exceptionally high carbon dioxide levels did not cause run-away global warming in the past, why would we expect that to be the case in the future (especially at the minimal levels of 387 ppm)?Closing Comments
Will the sun’s magnetism continue to free fall during Solar Cycle 24 or will it level off into a steady state similar to the old solar cycles? Will the next decade produce massive solar storms or will we see the start of a Dalton type minimum or even enter a more severe solar Grand Minima producing another Little Ice Age? As a scientist I can say that I do not have all the answers. The road ahead is bricked in uncertainty. But what is certain is the sun is undergoing a state change.0 -
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Just noticed the links are not working so go to the SDO site
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/Gallery/SDOFirstLight.html
First Light for the Solar Dynamics Observatory
April 21, 2010: Warning, the images you are about to see could take your breath away.
At a press conference in Washington DC, researchers unveiled "First Light" images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, a space telescope designed to study the sun.
"SDO is working beautifully," reports project scientist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "This is even better than we could have dreamed."
Launched on February 11th from Cape Canaveral, the observatory has spent the past two months moving into a geosynchronous orbit and activating its instruments. As soon as SDO's telescope doors opened, the spacecraft began beaming back scenes so beautiful and puzzlingly complex that even seasoned observers were stunned.
For instance, here is one of the first things SDO saw:
An erupting prominence observed by SDO on March 30, 2010. The 29 MB movie takes a while to download, but it is worth the wait.
Credit: SDO/AIA
"We've seen solar prominences before—but never quite like this," says Alan Title of Lockheed Martin, principal investigator of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the observatory's main telescope array. "Some of my colleagues say they've learned new things about prominences just by watching this one movie."
SDO is the first mission of NASA's Living with a Star (LWS) program. The goal of LWS is to understand the sun as a magnetic variable star and to measure its impact on life and society on Earth. Program scientist Lika Guhathakurta of NASA headquarters envisions big things for the new observatory:
"SDO is our 'Hubble for the sun'," she says. "It promises to transform solar physics in the same way the Hubble Space Telescope has transformed astronomy and cosmology."
"No solar telescope has ever come close to the combined spatial, temporal and spectral resolution of SDO," adds Title. "This is possible because of the combination of 4096 x 4096-pixel CCDs with huge dynamic range and a geosynchronous orbit which allows SDO to observe the sun and communicate with the ground around the clock."
A full-disk multiwavelength extreme ultraviolet image of the sun taken by SDO on March 30, 2010. False colors trace different gas temperatures. Reds are relatively cool (~60,000 K); blues and greens are hotter (> 1,000,000 K). URL="http://www.boards.ie/media/medialibrary/2010/04/21/fulldiskmulticolor.jpg"][COLOR=#0066cc]full-resolution image[/COLOR][/URL
Credit: SDO/AIA
One of the most amazing things about the observatory is its "big picture" view. SDO is able to monitor not just one small patch of sun, but rather the whole thing--full disk, atmosphere, surface, and even interior. "We're going to make connections that were impossible in the past," says Title.
As an example he offers the events of April 8th:
With SDO looking on, decaying sunspot 1060 unleashed a minor "B3-class" solar flare. A shock wave issued from the blast site and raced across the surface of the sun (movie). SDO images clearly show magnetic loops and other structures rocking back and forth when the wave passes over them. Eventually, the wave disappeared over the sun's horizon--but the show wasn't over. Four hours after the initial blast, and some 200,000 km away, a massive prominence erupted (image).
Coincidence? Not according to Title.
"As the wave swept across the surface of the sun, it de-stabilized magnetic fields it encountered en route. I believe the magnetic underpinnings of the prominence were upset by the wave, and this led to the eruption."
A seemingly insignificant B-flare triggered a massive prominence eruption halfway across the sun. This is the sort of unexpected connection that, when fully understood, could lead to big advances in space weather forecasting.
On April 8th this active region unleashed a B3-class solar flare. Click to view an 8 MB movie of the flare and the subsequent shock wave that went rippling through the sun's atmosphere.
Credit: SDO/AIA
So far, SDO's prettiest pictures have come from the bank of telescopes called AIA. Other instruments on the spacecraft are working just as well—and they promise similarly exciting results.
"The Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) is performing splendidly," reports HMI principal investigator Phil Scherrer of Stanford University. "We're getting very high-quality, high signal-to-noise data."
HMI is designed to look inside the sun using a technique called helioseismology. Just as geologists use seismic waves to map the interior of our planet, solar physicists can use acoustic waves to map the interior of our star. On the sun, acoustic waves are generated by the sun's own internal motions. HMI detects the waves pulling the sun's surface back and forth, revealing indirectly what lies within.
"We're processing the data now," says Scherrer, "and soon we expect to have some nice maps of the sun's interior."
In addition to mapping the solar interior, the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager can also map magnetic fields on the sun's surface. This bipolar sunspot was observed by HMI on March 29th. White and black trace opposite magnetic polarities. The sunspot's main core (white) is about the size of Earth. URL="http://www.boards.ie/media/medialibrary/2010/04/21/hmi_magnetogram.mp4"][COLOR=#0066cc]2 MB movie[/COLOR][/URL
Credit: SDO/HMI
The Extreme UV Variability Experiment (EVE) is online, too, "and we're getting great data as well," says principal investigator Tom Woods of the University of Colorado, Boulder.
EVE monitors the sun where it is most variable—in the extreme UV part of the electromagnetic spectrum. At these wavelengths, the brightness of the sun can rise and fall a hundredfold in the blink of an eye, heating and "puffing up" Earth's upper atmosphere, and dragging down satellites. EVE measures these changes with unprecedented time and spectral resolution.
"EVE has already detected a number of very interesting solar flares," says Woods. "We're excited; the flares evolved in a way we didn't expect. This is something we wouldn't have seen without the capabilities of EVE." He plans to offer more details at a later date when the EVE team has had time to fully analyze the data.
Mission scientists stress that all of this is preliminary. The observatory is still being commissioned, and a good deal of testing and calibration remains to be done before regular, daily images become available in mid-May. Even more effort must be put in before hard science appears in refereed journals.
"First Light is just a first look," says Pesnell. "The best is yet to come."
A complete gallery of SDO's First Light images and data may be found at http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/Gallery/ SDOFirstLight.html.
An erupting prominence observed by SDO on March 30, 2010. False colors trace different plasma temperatures. Red is relatively cool (60,000 K); green and yellow are hotter (1,400,000 - 2,200,000 K). URL="http://www.boards.ie/media/medialibrary/2010/04/21/aia_cme_closeup_20100330-H1800_304-171.mp4"][COLOR=#0066cc]15 MB movie[/COLOR][/URL
SDO/AIA
And just to note the sun has been in bed for the last 9 days.very quiet again.0 -
http://www.spaceweather.comQUIET SUN: Just when you thought solar minimum was over... The sun has been blank for nine consecutive days, the longest stretch of spotlessness since 2009. Solar activity is very low and no sunspots are in the offing.
Are we on track for a Dalton minimum?
Top graph: The figure shows sunspot record in blue and a polynomial fit in black. These cycles are said to be responsible for the little ice age periods seen in the last millennium. The latest little ice age on Earth occurred during the solar Dalton Minimum, which lasted from about 1790 to 1830.
Bottom graph: Solar cycles #1, 2, 3 and 4 are compared with solar cycles #20, 21, 22, and 23 (we are currently in solar cycle #24). The two sequences are separated by about 210 years. The figure suggests a repeating pattern. There is an increase during cycles #1, 2, and 3 followed by a decrease in cycle #4 that repeats for the cycles #20, 21, 22, and 23, which lasted about 13 years. If the bi-secular (occurring twice in a century) solar cycle repeats, a new solar minimum lasting a few decades should be expected. This new low solar activity cycle may induce a further cooling of the climate during the first half of the 21st century, according to Scafetta.0 -
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Future low solar activity periods may cause extremely cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia
by Jarl R. Ahlbeck Jarl R. Ahlbeck, D.Sc. (Chem. Eng.), Docent (env. tech.) Abo Akademi University, Finland
17.03.2010
http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/moreqbo/MZ-Labitzke-et-al-2006.pdf
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/
Summary.
The observed winter temperatures for Turku, Finland (and also generally for North America, Europe and Russia) for the past 60 winters have been strongly dependent on the Arctic Oscillation index (AO). When the Arctic Oscillation index is in "positive phase", high atmospheric pressure persists south of the North Pole, and lower pressures on the North Pole.
In the positive phase, very cold winter air does not extend as far south into the middle of North America as it would during the negative phase. The AO positive phase is often called the "Warm" phase in North America.
In this report I analyzed the statistical relation between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index (QBO is a measure of the direction and strength of the stratospheric wind in the Tropics), the solar activity, and the Arctic Oscillation index and obtained a statistically significant regression equation.
According to this equation, during negative (easterly) values of the QBO, low solar activity causes a negative Arctic Oscillation index and cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia, but during positive (westerly) values of the QBO the relation reverses.
However, the influence of the combination of an easterly value of the QBO and low solar activity on the AO is stronger and this combination is much more probable than the opposite.
Therefore, prolonged low solar activity periods in the future may cause the domination of a strongly negative AO and extremely cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia.
Arctic oscillation index and Turku winter temperature.
Turku is located in the SW corner of Finland where the Arctic Oscillation Index for December-February almost completely controls the winter temperature for these months. See Figures 1 and 2.
Figure 1. Turku Winter temperature December-February 1951-2010 and corresponding Arctic Oscillation index, data from NOAA (2010).
Figure 2. Same as Figure 1., but the Arctic Oscillation index is by means of regression analysis converted to the same scale as the Turku winter temperature.
In January and February 1989 the Arctic Oscillation index jumped up to a very high level causing a warm winter. The index stayed at a higher level, but collapsed back to a record low level in December 2009 - February 2010. This kind of behavior of a time series is very typical for 1-lag and 2-lag random walk mechanisms.
The data for the Arctic Oscillation index (AO) December-February 1951-2010 (NOAA 2010) are presented in Appendix 1., and the probability density diagram in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Probability density diagram for the Arctic Oscillation index for December-February 1951-2010.
The Arctic Oscillation index for the winter months 1951-2010 follows a Gaussian distribution with an arithmetic mean value of -0.375.
The random walk behavior of the Arctic Oscillation index points towards a mechanism whereby the index consists of white noise that is driven by two or more harmonic oscillations. Most probable candidates for these oscillations are the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation with a period length of about 28 months, and the solar activity cycle with a period length of about 138 months.
A clear influence of the solar activity and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index on the Arctic Oscillation index has been discovered by Labitzke and will here be verified by means of statistical methods.
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index.
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index is a measure of the strength and direction of tropical stratospheric wind. A negative value corresponds to easterly wind, and a positive value to westerly wind. The data for the Quasi-Biennial oscillation index (QBO) December-February 1951-2010 (NOAA 2010) are presented in Appendix 1. and the probability density diagram in Figure 4.
Figure 4. Probability density diagram for the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index for December-February 1951-2010.
For the winter months 1951-2010 the distribution is almost rectangular with an arithmetic mean value of -2.9. Thus, negative or easterly values of the QBOhave been predominant during the winter months.
The solar activity.
Labitzke (2005) used the 10.7 cm solar flux as a measure of solar activity. As the correlation coefficient between this measure and the sunspot number is 0.98, we may as well use the sunspot number directly.
The data for sunspot number (SUN) December-February 1951-2010 (NOAA 2010) is presented in Appendix 1. and the probability density diagram in Figure 5.
Figure 5. Probability density diagram for the sunspot numbers for December-February 1951-2010. As the sunspot number can never be negative, a log-Gauss curve fit can describe the observations. We can see that low solar activity has been more common than high solar activity. Taken together with theQBO, the combination low QBO- low SUNhas been much more common during the winters than the combination high QBO- high SUN.
AO as a function of QBO and SUN.
By means of multiple regression analysis, the following equation was tested:
AO = b0+ b1*QBO+b2*SUN+b3*QBO*SUN+b4*QBO2+b5*SUN2 (1)
where b0- b5are regression coefficients. The result is shown in Appendix 1. b2, b4, and b5were eliminated as statistically insignificant.
The final statistically significant regression equation (p < 0.05) is:
AO = -0.2779 + 0.06096*QBO- 0.0005149*QBO*SUN (2)
Graphical presentation of the regression equation.
On order to obtain a picture of the Equation (2), AO was plotted as a function of SUN for two values of QBO in Figure 6. These values were chosen as minimum and maximum values from the rectangular probability density in Figure 4.
Figure 6. Statistically significant (p< 0.05) regression model for the Arctic Oscillation index as a function of Sunspot Number plotted for minimum (east), neutral, and maximum (west) values of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index.
It is very obvious that a predominantly low sunspot solar activity at negative (easterly) Quasi-Biennial oscillation index is able to decrease the Arctic Oscillation index much more than the other combinations are able to change the Arctic Oscillation index.
At high solar activity, the Arctic Oscillation index has not been very sensitive to the Quasi-Biennial oscillation.
Turku winter temperature.
The fact that the solar activity and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation together with stochastic noise control the Arctic Oscillation means that the Turku winter temperature too is dependent on these two oscillating parameters.
Equation (2) together with the connection obtained from Figure 2. give the result shown in Figure 7. Despite considerably high variations between different winters, the combination low QBO-low SUN is more likely to correspond to colder winter temperatures in Turku than all other combinations.
Figure 7. Turku winter temperature as a function of solar activity and Quasi-Biennial oscillation.
Conclusion.
Historically, low solar activity has been connected to cold winters in Europe. A definitive physical mechanism for this fact has not yet been presented. This analysis however shows that the influence of solar activity together with stratospheric mechanisms acting on the Arctic Oscillation is statistically significant. It also explains why the Arctic Oscillation seems to behave according to a random walk mechanism. If the solar activity in the future goes into a new Dalton or Maunder Minimum, the winters inNorth America, Europe and Russia may become very cold.0 -
This is translated from italian.
A different view to past minimums looking at planetary alignments at the time and compared to now,it a little difficult but you'll get the idea.
Orbital resonance: The word Ecliptic ... Super Minimum coming?
Propose again an old article that explains how Ale, probably the sun will be affected during 2010 by special favorable orbital resonances that could ferry a Maunder Minimum style or Dalton.
We addressed two arguments passed in POST pivotal to introduce this place might finally explain and to understand the exceptional situation that is taking shape on the ecliptic.
Remembering first and foremost the enormous magnetic field of two main SiperGiganti gaseous Jupiter and Saturn. I stress again that Jupiter holds the record with regard to the power of the field in the solar system, only the highly organized magnetic fields of sunspots are more powerful! Recall that the electromagnetic interaction distance between two bodies with the mgnetosfera depends on the "position vector", so it depends on the distance in the first instance, we recall that the rotation of the planets around the Sun is specific to each of them 11,859 years to Jupiter, 29,657 years to 84,323 years for Saturn and Uranus.
Another way was due to better clarify the relationship between electromagnetic fields and plasma: the plasma consists of nuclei of atoms (hydrogen and helium in the solar) literally immersed in a sea of electrons. The solar plasma is therefore sensitive to magnetic fields, sunspots are the visible proof, less dense plasma channels generated by solar magnetic fields highly organized.
To better understand = http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_ (physics)
So if the sunspots are generated by magnetic fields will also be sensitive to external magnetic fields applied, the electromagnetic interaction being a vector quantity strongly dependent on the position vector, affected the distance at which you are to find the interacting entities.
We come then to the theory of Prof. P. A. Seeds:
SOURCE = http://arxiv.org/abs/0903.5009
In this publication of the Cornell University Library, Section Astrophysics, the author analyzes in detail the potential of distance between the Sun and the planets that orbit the ecliptic, the work is extremely complex and detailed reading it seems better understand the theories on a statistical basis by Prof. Timo Niroma.
We shall now consider five different situations on the ecliptic for 5 different periods some of which are often mentioned in this Blog.
Minimum between Cycle 21 and Cycle 22 August 1986
Jupiter near perihelion, with a distance of 4.9857 AU from the Sun (AU = astronomical units), Saturn at nearly 10 AU with staggered arrangement, the carrier that combines the Sun to Jupiter and Saturn carrier that combines the Sun at an angle of about 90 Degrees, the situation stands out as the three gas giants are "the same side" thinking of dividing the ecliptic into 2 parts with a perfect straight line that cuts from east to west (horizontal yellow line).
Minimum between Cycle 22 and Cycle 23 August 1996
This provision Jupiter rather "outside game" with a distance of 5248 AU from the Sun, Saturn is more close than the previous situation 9:56 AU.
The angle between two vectors is always around 90 degrees and this time the three giants are almost even in the same quarter dl'eclittica.
The largest minimum of 1913
We have often used this date as a benchmark than the current minimum, emphasize that while 1913 was one year in 2008, this minimum is that 2009 is compared to this year!
The situation has some orbital substantial difference than the minimum considered before, we start from the corner formed by the vectors connecting the two main supergiants the Sun: at least 170 degrees, the alignment could therefore be much more effective with regard to the effects electromagnetic star!
Saturn on this date was in perihelion complete, with only 9.0469 AU away from the star, the situation of Jupiter but is not optimal for the distance from the Sun, with 5.18 AU is in fact an intermediate between perihelion and aphelion sitazione.
The approach to the Maunder Minimum's
Year 1653, beginning the period known as the Maunder Minimum, you all know very well what we mean when we talk about this particular phase of Solar!
Jupiter and Saturn aligned perfectly on a hypothetical line which joins them via the Sun Uranus slightly misaligned, this configuration is completely different to that found in the periods mentioned above.
The angle formed by the carriers that ideally join the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn and Sun is almost 180 degrees, while Saturn is fairly close to perihelion, Jupiter is more distant from the point of perihelion.
The situation of 2010
In 2010 it will achieve a very specific situation on the ecliptic, the three GigantiGassosi (Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus) will be perfectly aligned and the sun is between Jupiter and Saturn. Jupiter will be almost a perihelion distance of 4966 AU from the Sun, a little more distant Saturn with 9:53 AU.
The situation for 2010 will be very similar to that which occurred in 1653 but with two differences:
1) Jupiter is closer to the Sun compared to 1653 while Saturn farther
2) Uranus in 1653 was "off-axis will now perfectly aligned with the other two giants.
We can not say with absolute certainty that this situation will lead to a new superminimum , as I said some time on the blog "will be history that will assess the current minimum.
What we can say is that most forecasting models of solar activity based on the last three cycles with a deterministic approach, certainly never in their input data a situation like the current planetary alignment!
We follow closely the evolution of solar activity in 2010.0 -
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Still quiet, not sure if the predicted path is following the number of sunspots recorded or the other way round.
Compared with cycle 4 & 5
http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl4.html
http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl5.html0 -
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All solar indices are down, across the board:
The radio activity of the sun has been quieter:
And the Ap Geomagnetic Index has taken a drop after peaking last month:
As has been its pattern, Solar Cycle 24 has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The last few months of raw monthly sunspot numbers from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) in Belgium are:
January = 12.613,
February = 18.5,
March = 15.452,
April = 7.000
May = 8.484.
After spending 3 months above the criteria for deep solar minimum, we’re now back in the thick of it.
The 13 month smoothed numbers, forecast values and implication for the magnitude of the cycle peak are as follows:- June 2009 had a forecast of 5.5, actual of 2.801, implied peak of 45.83
- July 2009 had a forecast of 6.7, actual of 3.707, implied peak of 49.79
- August 2009 had a forecast of 8.1, actual of 5.010, implied peak of 55.67
- September 2009 had a forecast of 9.7, actual of 6.094, implied peak of 56.55
- October 2009 had a forecast of 11.5, actual of 6.576, implied peak of 51.46
- November 2009 had a forecast of 12.6, actual of 7.190, implied peak of 51.36
- December 2009 had a forecast of 14.6, actual would require data from June.
820, which would require only 10 more spotless days, would mean that Cycle 24 was one standard deviation above the mean excluding the Dalton and Maunder Grand Minima.
One standard deviation is often an accepted criteria for considering an occurrence ‘unusual’.
Here are the latest plots:
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Deleted User wrote: »The North Atlantic Oscillation has been mostly negative and if the weather pattern keeps up we are in for a serious winter starting early.
The jet streams chance to move was around the equinox. It remains in a similiar position. Next chance to move in the absense of a large solar change in output is September
Yes, we've had far fewer wwww (warm wet westerly winds) so far this year.
A bit scary to think about another artic winter though.
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Deleted User wrote: »Yes, we've had far fewer wwww (warm wet westerly winds) so far this year.
A bit scary to think about another artic winter though.
Scary,s not the word. But i would expect the westerlies to return, short lived, at the peak of the american hurricane season.0 -
Scary,s not the word. But i would expect the westerlies to return, short lived, at the peak of the american hurricane season.
Probably a groundless idea I have but I think that active Atlantic hurricane seasons tend to be accompanied by major blocking over eastern and northern Europe. I seem to remember on active season a few years ago that was very dry this side of the world, but maybe that is just distored memory. 0 -
ANYONE SEE A SUNSPOT?
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
"NASA is beefing up numbers and not measuring in a way where we can use their method to compare to previous cycles".
i see Joe is debating http://spaceweather.com/ counting of sunspots.
There is definately specks on the bigger pic here so who is right.
In my opinion there either there or not.
edit; Live image so will change
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