Lisbon Treaty - Exit Poll - Page 22 - boards.ie
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View Poll Results: You Voted:
YES 433 61.77%
NO 268 38.23%
Voters: 701. You may not vote on this poll

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03-10-2009, 04:45   #316
K-9
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Originally Posted by kryogen View Post
You know its possible for people to vote on their own opinions rather then stupid slogans...............such as "be with Europe or be on the fringes"


Some would actually consider Ireland to be more important in Europe right now (considering they need our consent to ratify a treaty) then we will be if this vote passes, which it seems like it will...... we will have a .8% vote in Europe, that my friend could be referred to as the fringes
Thank God this thing is over and that post doesn't have to be refuted anymore.

Did you bother asking anybody about the .8% part?
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03-10-2009, 05:12   #317
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Originally Posted by DeVore View Post
Actually its here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2055310420

We were accurate to 0.8% with a prediction of 54.2% and the actual result was 53.4% for No.

That was on a sample set of 1460 here we have a sample set of 600 ish, so the variance might be higher but then this is an "exit" poll where as that was a "how do you intend to vote" poll.

I would be happy to call it for the Yes voters all the same but I think it will be closer then 60%... I'm sticking with 53% Yes.

DeV.
Our "How will you vote?" poll this time had the No side with a convincing lead. So honestly I think our accuracy last time was a statistical fluke. Then, as someone who studied Maths I don't need to tell you that.
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03-10-2009, 10:09   #318
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Early tallies in most places are overwhelmingly in favour of Yes ! Think Dublin North is the only constituency that's showing a No vote at the moment.

If it holds up then it's looking like 60% or thereabouts for the Yes side
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03-10-2009, 10:19   #319
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this is turning out to be a great day

first new stargate universe pilot episodes

second a possible yes in Lisbon

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03-10-2009, 10:30   #320
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The current result's of the poll on this thread are
60.77%- yes
39.23%- no
I would say this will be similar to the real outcome.
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03-10-2009, 12:58   #321
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Originally Posted by nesf View Post
Our "How will you vote?" poll this time had the No side with a convincing lead. So honestly I think our accuracy last time was a statistical fluke. Then, as someone who studied Maths I don't need to tell you that.
I think perhaps the "How will you vote?" poll was being stuffed by No supporters creating one off accounts to try and game the poll.

I think it could have been accurate, had only people with a certain reputation been allowed to vote on it, e.g. more then a hundred posts and account open for more then a year.
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03-10-2009, 13:23   #322
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Originally Posted by bk View Post
I think perhaps the "How will you vote?" poll was being stuffed by No supporters creating one off accounts to try and game the poll.

I think it could have been accurate, had only people with a certain reputation been allowed to vote on it, e.g. more then a hundred posts and account open for more then a year.
I would have satisfied those criteria. Yet I didn't vote in that (or any other) Boards poll. My reason is that I don't think such polls have any worthwhile degree of reliability, yet some people take them with an amount of seriousness.
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03-10-2009, 14:51   #323
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Looks like the result will end up at around 66/67% Yes. Our poll was right on the overall result but biased by about 7% towards the NO side.
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03-10-2009, 17:25   #324
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I think we can say that there was a certain amount of "gaming" going on.

I also think this result definitely underlines where the real political discussion on the Irish Internet is occuring and where public opinion is reflected.

DeV.
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03-10-2009, 17:45   #325
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Originally Posted by DeVore View Post
I think we can say that there was a certain amount of "gaming" going on.

I also think this result definitely underlines where the real political discussion on the Irish Internet is occuring and where public opinion is reflected.

DeV.
Hmmmmmmmmm Devore,is'nt the usual margin of error +or- 3%? in a poll

wonder what the results of the boards poll would have been if it had only started after polls closed?
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03-10-2009, 18:01   #326
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Rather depends on the sample size. If the sample size is 100% the margin of error tends towards 0

DeV.
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03-10-2009, 18:15   #327
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Rather depends on the sample size. If the sample size is 100% the margin of error tends towards 0

DeV.
Lol DeVore SIR!

Tell that to Al Gore!
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