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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Saturday, 11 August, 2012
    ___________________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Somewhat cooler especially in south and southwest, outbreaks of light rain in west Munster, isolated showers elsewhere, followed by a slight risk of thunderstorms developing west-central to southeast along a slowly advancing (to northeast) front. Rainfalls of 5-10 mms in some parts of Munster, south Leinster. Continued rather warm in Ulster, east Connacht and north Leinster, with highs 19-23 C in north, 18-22 C central, but only 15-19 C south and southwest. There may be a slight clearance in the southwest this afternoon. Will be watching for potential of severe thunderstorm alert after about 2 p.m., for now would say 10-20% chance.

    TONIGHT, although mainly cloudy, may have some clear intervals with lows 8-11 C in eastern and northern counties as the push of cooler air may become quite weak, the front could begin to dissipate before redeveloping on Sunday.

    SUNDAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, extensive showers or thunderstorms possible, although there may be some places with intervals of warm sunshine also. Winds having backed into the southeast may now begin to return to southerly, highs around 21 C in some places, 15-17 C closer to south and west coasts. Heavier rain likely by evening and overnight with some thundery showers embedded, amounts of 10-20 mms by Monday morning.

    MONDAY ... Showery with some intervals of heavier rain possible, then becoming partly cloudy, lows near 12 C and highs 18-20 C.

    TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild. Lows near 11 C and highs 19-21C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain becoming heavy, 20-40 mms potential, winds also increasing to E-SE 20-40 mph as low pressure approaches from south to southwest. Lows around 10 C and highs around 17 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Slight improvements later in the week, staying rather unsettled through next weekend, and then chance of another warm spell developing in the following week (19th to 23rd).


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Increasing cloud west, some late showers or isolated thunderstorms, highs 23-27 C. Sunny again in the east until quite late afternoon or evening, hot with highs 27-30 C. Isolated heavy or severe evening thunderstorms may move north from France, slight chance of them arriving near the end of the day in London and region.

    TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, mild to warm, outbreaks of rain mostly west and just a few showers in eastern sections with the risk of one or two heavier thunderstorms. Lows 14-19 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Sunday and much of next week could stay a little warmer than average with highs 22-24 C. Sunday is likely to be mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Heavy rains likely at times in Wales and Scotland, northern England mid-week. The weather has certainly co-operated with the two week interval of the Olympic Games.


    North American forecasts

    Slow-moving frontal bands of heavy showers continue to plague the northeast U.S. and eastern Great Lakes, with gradual clearing further west. Hot and dry across most of the west today. Scattered daytime storms over higher terrain in southwest.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Friday) was sunny, hazy and a bit cooler due to a stronger sea breeze today with highs near 20 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Sunday, 12 August, 2012
    ___________________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, extensive showers or thunderstorms possible, although there may be some places with intervals of warm sunshine also. Winds having backed into the southeast may now begin to return to southerly, 20-30 mph at times, with highs around 19 to 21 C in some places, 15-17 C closer to south and west coasts. Heavier rain likely in bursts this morning across the east mainly, and then again by evening and overnight in various places with some thundery showers embedded in both periods, amounts of 10-20 mms by Monday morning and potential for 10-20 mms in either or both of these intervals, so that one or two places could see spot flooding briefly.

    TONIGHT ... Heavy showers passing through then foggy, very mild, lows 11-14 C.

    MONDAY ... Showery with some intervals of heavier rain possible, 15-30 mms potential, embedded thunderstorms, then becoming partly cloudy, lows near 12 C and highs 18-20 C. Winds veering more to southwest then slackening by evening.

    TUESDAY ... Morning mist or fog, some sunshine at times later with variable cloud, showers, mild. Lows 8 to 11 C and highs 19-21 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain becoming heavy, 20-40 mms potential, winds also increasing to E-SE 20-40 mph as low pressure approaches from south to southwest. Lows around 10 C and highs around 17 C. An alert will probably be added to the forecast by Monday morning if this scenario holds together, although frankly each day from now to then looks borderline alert status in some places, so it's more of a case of back to the earlier summer pattern for a while (although perhaps warmer).

    THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Cloudy, a bit cooler, fresh SW to W breezes, showers. Highs around 16-18 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Slight improvements later into the weekend, staying rather unsettled through early next week, and then chance of another warm spell developing later in the following week (20th to 23rd).


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Variable cloud west, passing showers and a few thundery ones, heavier in Wales and later southwest Scotland, northern England. More isolated showers central England and likely to remain largely dry if cloudy at times southeast. Highs will range from 17-20 C west, north, to 22 C central to 25 C southeast.

    TONIGHT ... Showers becoming heavier, some with thunder, a few parts of the south and southeast could remain dry, very mild in southerly winds of 20-40 mph, lows 14-18 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Much of next week could stay a little warmer than average with highs 22-24 C. Rainfalls will be heavy in parts of west and north, moderate central and possibly continuing rather dry in the southeast although not totally so.


    North American forecasts

    Little change due to very slow motion of systems, so as per yesterday, slow-moving frontal bands of heavy showers continue to plague the northeast U.S. and eastern Great Lakes, with gradual clearing further west. Hot and dry across most of the west today (added, getting warmer by several degrees in parts of western Canada, to near 30 C). Scattered daytime storms over higher terrain in southwest and northern prairies.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Saturday) was sunny, and a bit warmer again with highs near 23 C. We are now having a reasonably average sort of mid-summer here, nothing exceptional, it often stays dry for about 4-6 weeks here when the Pacific highs start swelling up. The hottest temperatures ever recorded here were at the end of July 2009 when it hit 35 C at YVR (which is near the ocean) and unofficially about 38 C at my location 10 kms further inland, that being on the 29th and again 30th. The coldest reading in the past century here was -18 C in January 1950. So the extremes are about the same as most places in rural central England, I would say, or the absolute extremes in Ireland (almost).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Monday, 13 August, 2012
    ___________________________________________

    ALERT for heavy rainfalls and intense lightning in north-central counties spreading into parts of Ulster and north Leinster, tending to weaken after mid-day, 20-30 mms rain and spot flooding may result ... ADVANCE ALERT for strong winds and heavy rainfalls Wednesday (see forecasts for details).

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Very humid with thundery showers north-central, spreading to east and north to cover much of Ulster and north Leinster, inland Connacht, 20-30 mms rain in some places, intense lightning, spot flooding. Partial clearance to follow, warm sunshine at times, then outbreaks of showery rain, embedded thunderstorms, a further 10-15 mms in some places later today. Highs 18-21 and winds SSW 20-35 mph. then becoming partly cloudy, lows near 12 C and highs 18-20 C.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, fog, a few showers although some places dry, lows 10-13 C.

    TUESDAY ... Morning mist or fog, some sunshine at times later with variable cloud, showers, isolated thunder and warm, highs 19-21 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain becoming heavy, 20-40 mms potential, winds also increasing to E-SE 20-40 mph as low pressure approaches from south to southwest. Lows around 10 C and highs around 17 C. Winds rapidly veering to SW 30-60 mph with the higher gusts mainly around southwest coast mid-day and northwest coast later afternoon. This situation will probably require frequent updates as the system is small but powerful (in theory).

    THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Cloudy, a bit cooler, fresh SW to W breezes, showers. Highs around 16-18 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Variable cloud, isolated showers or more frequent showers in some western counties, near average temperatures (18-20 C).

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Next week could see somewhat warmer temperatures again with some dry spells returning. Highs could reach 22-24 C.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy west, passing showers and a few thundery ones, heavier in Wales and later southwest Scotland, northern-central England. More isolated showers east-central England and likely to remain largely dry if cloudy at times southeast. Highs will range from 17-20 C west, north, to 22 C central to 25 C southeast.

    TONIGHT ... Showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly in west and north, partly cloudy further east, mild in southerly winds 20-40 mph, lows 13-17 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Much of next week could stay a little warmer than average with highs 22-24 C. Rainfalls will be heavy in parts of west and north, moderate central and possibly continuing rather dry in the southeast although not totally so. Strong winds spreading from Ireland to western Scotland and Wales late Wednesday, some gusts to 70 mph possible in Hebrides.


    North American forecasts

    Showery east coast, and also west-central Great Lakes to Mississippi valley, with some dry and warm conditions in between around Ohio and western PA, southern ON and w NY. Hot and dry most of the central and western regions, with a few heavy storms moving east through Alberta into Saskatchewan. Sunny and seasonably warm near west coast.


    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Sunday) was sunny and hazy, highs near 25 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Mon 13 Aug 2012 _ 7:10 p.m.

    ALERT for heavy rainfalls locally east Galway, south Roscommon, nearby portions of other counties, now to 8:30 p.m., 20-30 mms and brief spot flooding on roads.

    ADVANCE ALERT now upgraded to 75% chance storm force wind gusts and some isolated sustained winds of 50-70 mph 50% chance of isolated hurricane force wind gusts (75-85 mph) mainly south and west coast regions, possibly exposed areas east, inland central and north also. This situation will be reassessed at 0630h from later guidance. Current model runs are showing the potential for an intense depression to form Tuesday night south of Valentia moving due north into western counties. The region around Cork is especially at risk for damaging winds and local tidal-flooding issues as the date will not be far off new moon.

    More discussion likely in forum thread, your ob'dt servant now off duty to midnight IST.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Tuesday, 14 August, 2012
    ___________________________________________


    ALERT for storm force winds with hurricane force gusts in exposed locations and very heavy rainfalls sweeping north tonight and lasting much of tomorrow, with some blustery squalls embedded. Potential for wind gusts to 80 mph in the most exposed coastal and upland locations, 60 mph more widely ... potential for 30-40 mms rainfall with severe flood risk where soils now saturated from previous rainfalls. More details in forecast.

    Situation: A very powerful summer storm appears likely to develop explosively tonight as a deep vortex in the upper atmosphere rotates from its current location in the central Atlantic towards Biscay then north towards Valentia. A deep surface low that could reach 968 mbs is likely to develop very rapidly after midnight in response to this vortex (a swirl of colder air) slamming into the warm, humid air mass now present. The track of this low will be approximately due north across Kerry or near Valentia, up the west coast veering more to the northwest after passing Galway Bay mid-day Wednesday. The low will remain intense but will pull rapidly away from Ireland in the afternoon, leaving Mayo in the wake of diminishing southwest gales. Wind speeds should both rise and fall off rather swiftly during various phases of the low's brief rampage. All regions will be exposed to strong gusts although the highest wind speeds could be expected near Cork and various exposed locations. It would be very dangerous to be hiking above sheltered areas anywhere on Wednesday but fortunately this should become obvious before daylight. If you know of anyone with plans to set out today and camp, or anyone who left earlier on such an outing, they should be contacted and warned to return to shelter. Marine areas will see hurricane force wind gusts to force 11-12 and sailing after about 9 p.m. tonight is strongly discouraged. Persons living in hilly areas of the southwest should think back to a similar storm in January 2010 and assess possible wind damage risks from channelling of SSE winds pulled through gaps in the terrain.


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Morning mist or fog, some sunshine at times later with variable cloud, showers, one or two with thunder or hail, local rainfalls 10-20 mms although many places 2-5 mms, and warm, very humid, highs 18-21 C.

    TONIGHT ... :pac::pac::pac: Becoming stormy in the south with winds rapidly increasing to ESE 30-50 mph, gusts to 70 mph in exposed locations by early morning, and driving rains giving 20-40 mms by morning. The Cork region may see flooding risks from both rainfall runoff and rising tides. This could become the case further east also. Rain will reach central regions after midnight and the north by about sunrise. Winds will also increase rapidly there, reaching SE 25-45 mph with some higher gusts in exposed locations. Rainfalls for these regions incorporated into following day forecast, but about 10 mms by dawn.

    WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain becoming heavy, 20-40 mms potential for most but 30-50 mms locally, severe local flooding where ground saturated from previous rain. Winds across the south will peak during the morning or mid-day from a SSE direction, reaching 40-70 mph and gusting to near hurricane force at times. There is potential for moderate structural and tree damage. Very exposed higher terrain could see gusts to near 100 mph. Around the southeast and east coasts and well inland, winds will rise to about SE 30-55 mph and will veer rapidly to SW 30-50 mph. Some squally showers or storms could develop along the windshift and the risk for local tornadic wind streaks will be monitored, especially valid around Limerick and Tipps north into the Athlone district. Connacht will see a more gradual increase in wind speeds all morning to reach SSE 40-60 mph and then a gradual turn to SSW 40-60 mph with higher gusts possible. Ulster may be somewhat protected from the strongest winds and will see wind speeds of about 30-50 mph. There could be some brighter or even sunny intervals later in the day across the southwest and the storm may rapidly subside to more of a partly cloudy, isolated showers scenario with winds SW 20-40 mph. Highest temperatures will be 16-18 C for most, 18-20 C in parts of southwest and north Donegal (Malin Head could hit 22 C).

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... Further improvements are expected to clear spells, passing showers, winds SW 15-30 mph although 25-55 mph in the northwest, and lows 10-12 C.

    THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Cloudy, a bit cooler, fresh SW to W breezes, showers. Highs around 17-21 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Variable cloud, isolated showers or more frequent showers in some western counties, near average temperatures (18-22 C).

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Next week could see somewhat warmer temperatures again with some dry spells returning. Highs could reach 22-24 C.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few showers, one or two isolated thunderstorms in Wales and western England. Mild to warm, highs 19-23 C, southerly breezes at 15-30 mph. Rather humid and brief sunny breaks for some.

    TONIGHT ... Showers and a few thunderstorms, rising southeast gales for parts of southwest England and Wales, breezy further east, warm with lows around 14-17 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... The severe storm will largely brush past most of Britain with peak gusts around 60 mph in Cornwall and parts of Wales. The wind direction will remain SE for most places and a line of squally showers or thunderstorms will try to push east through Wales and about Somerset-Dorset but may not make it too much further east before fragmenting. Highs about 22-25 C east of that front all the way up into Scotland, closer to 18-20 C where the front does manage to move through.

    OUTLOOK ... The second half of the week could stay a little warmer than average with highs 22-24 C. Rainfalls will be heavy in parts of west and north, moderate central and possibly continuing rather dry in the southeast although not totally so.


    North American forecasts

    Most places seasonable and just a few isolated regions with showers or thunderstorms, eastern Canada, parts of B.C. and Alberta, and the inland southwestern U.S. are all in line for a few heavy or locally severe storms, but many other regions will be dry and seasonably warm to hot.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Monday) was sunny and hazy despite a lot of higher cloud, and it was borderline hot and a bit humid for this location with highs near 28 C. Storms are developing northeast of here now and a cooler push of marine air seems to be developing for Tuesday morning here.

    Updates as necessary on the impending storm, and lots of discussion in the forum threads.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update ... Tues 14 Aug 2012 ... 2015h
    ___________________________________________

    ALERT maintained for dangerous storm conditions likely to set in across the south late overnight and during the morning rush hour period, spreading more rapidly north after 0700h to overspread much of Ireland. Parts of Ulster may be spared significant impacts, but otherwise, expect very strong winds and heavy rainfalls with the usual variations due to exposure. Forecast details are updated below. A continuous watch is now underway, further updates only if this scenario requires substantial alterations.

    TONIGHT ... Starting out relatively benign with variable cloud, passing light showers and a slowly rising SE wind at about 15-30 mph by midnight and then rising rapidly in the south coast regions to 40-60 mph with heavy, driving rain about 0500-0700h. Lows 14-17 C.

    TOMORROW ... Strong winds and very heavy rainfalls rapidly spreading north to cover most of Ireland, less severe in Ulster. Winds near south coast slowly veering to SSW 50-80 mph with severe and possibly damaging gusts. East coast staying longer in SE winds at 40-60 mph. Rainfalls 30-50 mms, potential for higher amounts in upslope areas facing south-east. Highest temperatures 15-18 C except 20 C Ulster.

    Connacht and central counties of Ireland are likely to see a more gradual rise in wind speeds during the day peaking around late afternoon or evening SSE 30-55 mph with locally higher gusts.

    1900h storm location is approx 44N 16W heading NNE, current central pressure estimated 995 mbs, to be around 975 mbs at 50N 12W by 0600-0900h and near or just west of Valentia 972 mbs by 1500 to 1800h. Storm likely to track NNW after that veering to NW after midnight, maintaining a similar central pressure. The swerve away from Galway-Mayo would be the only reason why peak gusts there later on will not equal those in Kerry, Cork and Waterford mid-day. Clare and Limerick can also expect some very strong gusts.

    NEXT UPDATE LIKELY AT 0100h. My intermediate thoughts to be found in forum thread on storm. Will post tracking info as storm quite likely to pass K1 buoy at 2300h (location approx 49N 12.5W)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE ... Wed 15 Aug 2012 ... 00:45h

    No major changes in forecast. Storm appears to be rapidly developing now around 46.5N 14.5W and heading northeast. Considerable lightning detected in frontal band near 47N 11W. This may translate into morning thunderstorms embedded in bands of heavy rain across south-central counties.

    Stormy conditions can be expected to hit the outer south coast 0400-0500h and Cork, Waterford cities 0500-0600h. From there, the front edge of the storm will accelerate and reach a Shannon to Wicklow arc about 0800h and Galway to Dublin 0900h (onset approximate as some squally showers may break out ahead of front edge).

    Rain seems likely to persist all day in most places, once started, and the first signs of abatement will be southwest of Cork around late evening. Strongest winds are still expected early to mid afternoon on the south coast. See previous alert(s) for all other details.

    Next update around 0330 to 0400h.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Wed 15 Aug 2012 _ 0400h
    ____________________________________

    Data confirm that explosive development of storm has occurred, current location of centre appears to be 48N 13W approaching K1 buoy where pressure is falling rapidly and winds increasing. This buoy is always rather conservative on wind speeds so 29 knots sustained is on course for the later forecast. Central pressure is probably about 980 mbs now and continues to fall. Upper air guidance show that the expected deep vortex has formed just to the west of the surface centre. This phasing "bomb cyclone" will now move towards southwest Ireland with an intensity similar to a 45-kt tropical storm. Satellite presentation is impressive and enough land-based radar now catching the front to suggest heavy rain forecasts will verify.

    Forecasts remain unchanged awaiting further model guidance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Wednesday, 15 August, 2012
    ___________________________________________


    ALERT for storm force winds with hurricane force gusts in exposed locations and very heavy rainfalls sweeping north today, with some blustery squalls embedded. Potential for wind gusts to 80 mph in the most exposed coastal and upland locations, 60 mph more widely ... potential for 30-60 mms rainfall with severe flood risk where soils now saturated from previous rainfalls. More details in forecast.

    Situation: A very powerful and unusual summer storm has developed explosively overnight as a deep vortex in the upper atmosphere approaches southwest Ireland. A deep surface low that could reach 972 mbs is currently located about 200 miles south-southwest of Valentia with central pressure about 976 mbs. This will now track almost due north to a point just west of Valentia by 1300-1400h and then up the west coast veering more to the northwest after passing Galway Bay late afternoon Wednesday. The low will remain intense but will pull rapidly away from Ireland in the evening, leaving Mayo in the wake of diminishing southwest gales. Wind speeds should both rise and fall off rather swiftly during various phases of the low's brief rampage. All regions will be exposed to strong gusts although the highest wind speeds could be expected near Cork and various exposed locations around the south and east coasts as well as certain inland locations that can channel winds effectively from an ESE to S direction. Hiking above 300m today is strongly discouraged in all regions, the storm will gradually set in by mid-day across the north too. Marine areas south and later west will see hurricane force wind gusts to force 11-12 falling off to 8-10 later, while the Irish Sea will peak around force 9-10 falling off to 5-7 later, so that sailing is strongly discouraged. Waves could overtop shoreline installations around high tide on the south coast, should be a bit less severe on the east coast, but the west coast will have a "chaotic" sea state due to rapidly changing wind directions with short fetch.


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Periods of rain becoming heavy, 20-40 mms potential for most but 30-60 mms locally, severe local flooding where ground saturated from previous rain. Moderate to heavy rain in ESE winds 25-45 mph will soon appear across central counties (in the east-west sense) and later into the north. Winds across the south will peak during the morning or mid-day from a SSE direction, reaching 40-70 mph and gusting to near hurricane force at times. There is potential for moderate structural and tree damage. Very exposed higher terrain could see gusts to near 100 mph. Around the southeast and east coasts and well inland, winds will rise to about SE 30-55 mph and will veer rapidly to SW 30-50 mph. Some squally showers or storms could develop along the windshift and the risk for local tornadic wind streaks will be monitored, especially valid around Limerick and Tipps north into the Athlone district and including Laois-Kilkenny.

    Connacht will see a more gradual increase in wind speeds all morning to reach SSE 40-60 mph and then a gradual turn to SSW 40-60 mph with higher gusts possible. Ulster may be somewhat protected from the strongest winds and will see wind speeds of about 30-50 mph. There could be some brighter or even sunny intervals later in the day across the southwest and the storm will gradually subside to more of a partly cloudy, isolated showers scenario with winds SW 20-40 mph. Squally and at times heavy rain will continue over many other regions to about midnight or later. Highest temperatures will be 16-18 C for most, 18-20 C in parts of southwest and north Donegal (Malin Head could hit 21 C).

    TONIGHT ... Further improvements are expected to clear spells, passing showers, winds SW 25-40 mph although 35-55 mph in the northwest, and lows 10-14 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mms, although 10-20 mms Ulster which will now be getting the stronger part of the storm (although weakening as it goes, winds SSE 30-50 mph in east Ulster).

    THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, breezy to windy (SW 25-45 mph), passing showers turning to squally thundershowers later and overnight, potential for 10-20 mms further rain especially south. Highs 18-22 C.

    FRIDAY ... Cloudy, a bit cooler, fresh SW to W breezes, showers. Highs around 17-21 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Variable cloud, isolated showers or more frequent showers in some western counties, near average temperatures (18-22 C). There could be some longer sunny intervals and warmer readings for eastern counties in a southwest wind flow.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Next week could see somewhat warmer temperatures again with some dry spells returning. Highs could reach 22-24 C. There may be extensive marine cloud in lighter winds and another rainfall situation mid-week if a frontal disturbance breaks through this weak ridge.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... The severe storm will tend to stall to the southwest of most of Britain with peak gusts around 60 mph in Cornwall and parts of Wales. The wind direction will remain SE for most places and a line of squally showers or thunderstorms will try to push east through Wales and about Somerset-Dorset but may not make it too much further east before fragmenting. Despite that, a few severe storms could break out further northeast into the Midlands and Yorkshire. Highs about 22-25 C east of that front all the way up into Scotland, closer to 18-20 C where the front does manage to move through. Winds SE to S 30-50 mph for most, some higher gusts.

    TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, remnant showers, blustery southerly winds veering more to southwest in regions closest to Irish Sea. Mild with lows around 14-17 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The rest of the week could stay a little warmer than average with highs 22-24 C. Rainfalls will be heavy in parts of west and north again on Friday, moderate central and possibly continuing rather dry in the southeast although not totally so, as the storm track continues to run across northern Britain.


    North American forecasts

    Severe storms likely across west-central Canada with much cooler temperatures replacing the hot, humid air mass by evening in Manitoba, earlier for Saskatchewan, and for Alberta highs will only reach 15-18 C with hail showers at times. This colder air has only given B.C. a glancing blow and the coast will remain partly cloudy and very warm. Most of the western U.S. will remain warm except parts of Montana and Idaho. This front will extend further south late today and pull in some developing storms from the central plains states. Variable cloud and seasonable temperatures further east, generally speaking the intense heat wave is moderating and has ended for the time being in the northeast and Great Lakes regions.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Tuesday) was sunny and very warm after some morning cloudiness, highs 27-30 C.

    Updates on the storm as required, but check the discussion thread and observations reporting thread for all the latest details.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Thursday, 16 August, 2012
    _________________________________

    TODAY ... Connacht will continue to see blustery SW winds 30-50 mph with passing squally showers about to move inland this morning, some of these with hail and thunder. Less active showers further south will move rapidly northeast and intensify somewhat in phase with the Connacht showers; meanwhile, some long dry spells and occasional sunny spells will develop as the winds turn more southerly again, backing to southeast 10-20 mph. Highs will range from 17 C in the northwest and Kerry to about 21 C east Leinster and Ulster.

    TONIGHT ... Heavier showers with some embedded thunder will develop rapidly around sunset and will sweep northeast across most regions overnight; these will bring 15-30 mms rain and occasional wind gusts to about 35 mph (veering SE to SW). It will be very mild with lows only falling to about 17 C in Dublin and 15 C further west.

    FRIDAY ... Variable cloud with further showers, another organized frontal band possibly giving 10-20 mms rain late in the day, but pleasant sunny intervals before that arrives with highs reaching 20-22 C.

    SATURDAY ... Morning showers ending, sunny intervals, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

    SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain developing, a bit cooler for most, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some dry spells with near normal temperatures or slightly warmer, becoming more unsettled and cooler as the week unfolds.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Scattered morning showers more likely in Wales and western Scotland, afternoon thunderstorms in a few spots but some sunshine and highs near 23 C away from cooler west-facing coasts.

    TONIGHT ... Showers or thunderstorms, heavy at times west, lows 14-18 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland in general, occasional showers, a little warmer than average to the weekend, a drying trend early next week. Typical highs will be 23-26 C south, to 18-21 C Scotland.


    North American forecasts

    The main feature is a slow-moving frontal system bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Midwest and central-western Great Lakes. This will take another day on Friday to clear the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio valley which will be dry and warm today. Another area of heavy showers can be found over eastern Canada. Most of the south central and western states and adjacent western Canada are under hot, dry high pressure with heat wave conditions over all of the west now, highs well into the 30s.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Wednesday) was sunny and hot, high near 31 C. Similar expected today and Friday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Friday, 17 August, 2012
    _________________________________

    Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 4:56 p.m. IST.

    TODAY ... Partly cloudy and warm with another round of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms likely afternoon and evening hours, 10-20 mms rain, highs 18-22 C (warmest east). Winds occasionally SW 15-30 mph.

    TONIGHT ... A few more showers or thunderstorms then clearing, mild, breezy, lows 12-15 C.

    SATURDAY ... Yet another dry start leading to a showery or even stormy afternoon or evening, highs 18-21 C.

    SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers or a period of rain, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Continued rather unsettled, highs in the 18-21 C range. A cooler interval seems likely in about a week.

    Forecasts for Britain

    Showers and thunderstorms likely each day from now to Monday, warm with southerly winds and highs in the range of 22-25 C south, 17-20 C north.

    Forecasts for North America

    Heavy showers and storms in eastern Great Lakes and Ohio valley, sunny and hot across the central and western regions (very hot in the western inter-mountain valleys, some places in southern B.C. near 40 C).

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was sunny and hot, 32 C and Friday looks similar.

    Sorry this is a bit sketchy today, I am about halfway into holiday mode and will be handing over the daily forecasting to the team in a day or two.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Saturday, 18 August, 2012
    _________________________________

    TODAY ... Partly cloudy, longer sunny spells likely in parts of eastern counties, slight risk of showers mainly northwest this afternoon. Warm with highs around 21 C except 17-19 C near west, south coasts. Some coastal mist and offshore fog banks.

    TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with clear intervals, slight risk of a shower west, lows around 10 C.

    SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers and chance of a thunderstorm, 5-10 mms of rain on average, locally heavier, highs 18-20 C.

    MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, back to a slight risk of a shower, lows 8-10 C and highs 18-20 C.

    TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, periods of rain developing, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers, some heavy with hail and thunder, fresh WSW to WNW winds 20-40 mph, lows near 8 C and highs in the range of 15-18 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A more unsettled period with cooler temperatures appears likely with long-term models showing potential for rain next weekend.


    Forecasts for Britain

    In general, a similar pattern perhaps about a half-day behind, which means that some of the heavy showers from Friday are now moving through northern England today. TODAY will see passing showers, chance of a thunderstorm, highs 17-20 C north, 20-25 C south. This temperature range will continue through much of the week with a slight cooling trend after Wednesday which could be quite a stormy day in parts of central England.


    Forecasts for North America

    Northeast U.S. will see showers and thunderstorms. The southeast will experience frequent heavy showers and thunderstorms. Somewhat drier in the Great Lakes, Ohio valley, then a weak front with isolated showers further west around the Midwest ... the west remains under a dome of hot, dry air with near record high temperatures. After doing very little for over a week, tropical depression 7 decided to become a tropical storm in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, Gordon took on a name from its origins as t.d. 8, so that's unusual. Gordon threatens the Azores with a minimal hurricane but a stronger tropical storm than Ireland saw last week (just kidding, it wasn't quite a named tropical storm). Winds could gust as high as 80 mph as this slowly approaches then passes through the Azores. In five days, Gordon is supposed to be dying out just west of Lisbon and still heading more east than northeast.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Friday) was sunny and very hot, felt like 35 C to me, but I don't have an official thermometer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 19 August 2012 _ 0600h
    ___________________________________________

    MTC on holiday for a week ... you may get some guest forecasters, if the weather gets active. This update of the previous forecast is based on the current guidance.

    SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers and chance of a thunderstorm, 5-10 mms of rain on average, locally heavier, highs 18-20 C. Looks like heavier rain will just miss most of the southeast, could catch east Wexford this morning; otherwise, outbreaks of light or moderate rain.

    MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, back to a slight risk of a shower, lows 8-10 C and highs 18-20 C. Still looks to be the best day in the next 3-4.

    TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, periods of rain developing, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C. Back to a familiar early summer pattern.

    WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers, some heavy with hail and thunder, fresh WSW to WNW winds 20-40 mph, lows near 8 C and highs in the range of 15-18 C. Higher pressure builds in later, could be fairly pleasant late in the week, and that ridge will be holding off remnants of Gordon which will move through the Azores on Monday, then slowly edge towards Portugal. Most guidance shows it weakening below tropical storm status by Friday and a weak remnant low could move inland near Lisbon around Friday. At that point, another low in the mid-Atlantic will edge towards Ireland and bring cool, unsettled weather for the weekend.

    Due to my transition to holiday I won't update UK or NA forecasts except to say little change in general. It turned cloudy here with the sea breeze keeping the heat down somewhat at 24 C mid-day, while it was still 30-35 C a bit further inland.

    Unless Gordon comes towards Ireland as a strong storm, it's likely that this will be my last post for a week, back on Monday 27th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Here is the weather for the week from Met Eireann.

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Just to try and fill the void of MT's absence with a quick forecast. Maybe we could rotate these daily forecasts amongst us while he is taking a well deserved break? :) Also not sure if MT has assigned anyone in particular to do these but in case he has, please feel free to delete this one.

    Forecast for today - 20th August 2012 and the rest of the week:

    Rest of Today: A mix of cloudy spells and some sunshine with always the risk of a few showers and while not particularly widespread, the odd heavy one cannot be ruled out. Temps generally ranging between 17-21 °C, with highest values inland and towards the east. Winds light to moderate southwesterly, fresher near exposed coasts.

    Tonight:
    Isolated showers at first but a lot of dry weather overall. A more organized band of showery rain moving onto the west coast later in the night and towards morning as a trough of low pressure approaches.

    Tomorrow: Showery rain in the west spreading eastwards with the risk of some heavy falls in places with the increasing risk of some thunder during the afternoon, especially for the eastern half of the country. Temperatures around average ranging from 17-20 °C generally. Winds SW to W light to moderate but fresh and gusty at times near western coasts. Showers tending to die out towards nightfall.

    Wednesday: A day of sunny spells and passing showers, again with the odd heavy one but they should pass over fairly quickly in the moderate and occassionally fresh SW to W breeze. Feeling fresher than recently also with temps in the range of 16-19 °C overall. Wednesday night should be a fairly dry one overall.

    Thursday: Uncertain but at this stage it looks as if we may see increasing cloud and some rain as the day wears on as winds back more to the south.

    Friday and the weekend's
    forecast very uncertain at this point but it looks as if low pressure will be dominant factor bringing the risk of some rain or showers on each day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tuesday: Showery rain in the west spreading eastwards with the risk of some heavy falls in places with the increasing risk of some thunder during the afternoon, especially for the eastern half of the country. Temperatures around average ranging from 17-20 °C generally. Winds SW to W light to moderate but fresh and gusty at times near western coasts. Showers tending to die out towards nightfall.

    Wednesday: A day of sunny spells and passing showers, again with the odd heavy one but they should pass over fairly quickly in the moderate and occassionally fresh SW to W breeze. Feeling fresher than recently also with temps in the range of 16-19 °C overall. Wednesday night should be a fairly dry one overall.

    Thursday: Sunshine and showers to start the day but gradually getting cloudy and windy from the South with heavy rain Thursday evening and Thursday night. Temperatures of 16 to 19c

    Friday and the weekend's
    forecast is for more rain or showers and strong winds early Friday especially.

    Sorry just copied most of DEs forecast but it fills the gap I presume and most of the forecast for the coming days does not change much.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Wednesday - 22nd August 2012

    Today: A day of sunny spells and passing showers. The showers could be locally heavy at times with the risk of thunder but as is the nature of showery weather, some places will fair better than others. Temperatures near average, ranging between 16-19 °C generally, but feeling cooler in the brisk westerly breeze. Showers tending to become more scattered towards evening.

    Tonight: A few isolated showers but many areas staying dry. Mild.

    Tomorrow, Thursday: Likely to start mostly dry with some bright spells but a generally cloudy day overall with some showery rain spreading from the west over the course of the day. Temps between 15-18 °C overall in light to moderate southerly breezes. More persistent spells of rain possible later Thursday night as winds increase.

    Friday: A moderate degree of uncertainty regarding timing but at this stage it looks as if a band of showery rain will move up over the country during the morning to be followed by sunny spells and showers which could be locally heavy once again. Winds moderate to fresh SE'ly at first but tending to ease later. Near average temperatures.

    Weekend Outlook: Breezy with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers on Saturday with lighter winds and less showers on Sunday.

    Outlook for early Next Week: Likely to remain unsettled with some rain or showers at times.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Thursday - 23rd August 2012

    Today: Likely to start mostly dry with some bright spells but a generally cloudy day overall with some showery rain spreading from the west over the course of the day. Temps between 15-18 °C overall in light to moderate southerly breezes. More persistent spells of rain possible later Thursday night as winds increase.

    Friday: A very wet day generally with outbreaks of rain heavy at times with the South getting high totals. Totals of 10mm in the North to 25 or 30mm further South. Temperatures will be irrelevant 16 to 18c. Moderate Easterly winds.

    Weekend Outlook: More of the rain clearing on Saturday and Sunday should be a half decent day so plan your outdoor activities for then.

    Outlook for early Next Week: Likely to remain unsettled with some heavy rain early Monday and showers then as the weather gets cooler


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Weekend Update:

    Saturday - 25th August 2012


    Today: Overnight cloud and showery rain should gradually clear from the west over the course of Saturday with some bright or sunny spells but with always the risk of a few heavy showers brewing up here and there. Winds light to moderate N to NW will be fresh at times during the day. Temperatures averaging between 15-18 °C generally. Saturday night should be mostly dry apart from a very isolated shower. Light winds.

    Sunday: Sunday should start off dry in a lot of areas but increasing cloud may bring some patchy rain to western areas by late morning, although timing is not certain on this yet. It should stay mostly dry in the east and southeast especially for much of the day with some bright spells. Winds light southerly at first but gradually increasing moderate to fresh southeasterly by evening. Sunday night will see rain gradually becoming more widespread over the country as winds increase fresh to strong.

    Monday: (day of M.T's return :)) will most likely start off cloudy and wet with the chance of some heavy rain in places but this should clear to brighter, showery weather by mid afternoon as strong southerly winds veer more westerly. Temps generally in the range 15-18 °C but feeling a little cooler in the breeze.

    Outlook to Mid-week Period: Likely to remain unsettled with some showers or rain and also breezy at times. Temperatures near or a little below average overall.



    *Note* There is a small degree of uncertainty regarding timing of frontal passages both on Sunday and Monday so we will keep you up to date should the forecast change.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for posting these updates. I will be taking rest of today to get myself re-oriented after a nice break. Can see that an advance alert for potential heavy rainfall is required for eastern counties on Monday (0900-1700h) with as much as 30-40 mms possible. Will leave it at that for now. Will have a full forecast up for Monday morning.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Monday, 27 August, 2012
    _________________________________

    ALERT for heavy rainfalls in some parts of eastern and southeastern Ireland today valid to 1700h, expect further amounts of 20-30 mms.

    TODAY ... Rain will become heavy at times in eastern and southeastern counties, expect a further 20-30 mms and the risk of spot flooding. Further west, a more showery start with brighter intervals, followed by isolated heavy showers and risk of thunder. Winds moderate southerly veering to southwest 25-35 mph, some higher gusts. Highs near 18 C for most.

    TONIGHT ... A few isolated showers, clearing later, winds steady SW 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. Lows 8-11 C.

    TUESDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, outbreaks of heavy showers mainly confined to west, in S-SW winds 15-25 mph. Highs 17-20 C warmest in east.

    WEDNESDAY ... Frequent showers or periods of rain, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

    THURSDAY ... Showers, cool, some clearing later. Lows near 9 C and highs about 16 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Friday to about Tuesday of the following week appear warm and dry at this point. However, now that I'm back, that could change.


    Forecasts for Britain

    A similar pattern can be expected, as systems are fast-moving and moving west to east, with a slight lag for southeast England. Expect some heavy rainfalls to develop across southern Britain later today and tonight, and again on Wednesday.


    Forecasts for North America

    The Gulf coast is bracing for hurricane Isaac (as it should be by landfall on Wednesday morning) and anywhere between New Orleans and northwest Florida are on high alert for a cat-2 hurricane landfall. Today, the strengthening storm will pull away from southern Florida which will mean a rather steady S to SW wind of about 30-50 mph with squally showers for most regions there. Eventually conditions will improve a little in Florida (except for the western panhandle) but wll rapidly deteriorate in the rest of the central Gulf coast which will have some sunshine and humid conditions today. Further north, a weak cold front is bringing a few showers and storms to parts of the east-central U.S. and western Great Lakes. A large area of warm, dry weather sprawls across the central and western states and a weak front is moving inland on the west coast. We are currently seeing a bit of light rain here, the first this month in some cases. The maximum temperatures here all week were around 22-25 C, expecting 20 C on Monday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Tuesday, 28 August, 2012
    _________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Sunny to start, with increasing cloud by afternoon, some showers spreading gradually into western counties, highs 17-20 C (warmest around inland southeast). Winds steady S-SW 20-35 mph in exposed locations.

    TONIGHT ... Frequent showers or periods of rain, 10-15 mms likely. Lows near 12 C. Winds moderate southerly veering southwest later, 15-30 mph.

    WEDNESDAY ... Frequent showers, occasional thunder or hail possible, 15-25 mms of rain on average, some heavier amounts possible central counties. Highs around 17 C.

    THURSDAY ... Morning showers, then partly cloudy, isolated afternoon showers mainly northwest inland regions. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

    FRIDAY to TUESDAY ... A warm, dry spell still appears likely, with a bit of marine cloud near the west coast at times. Highs 19-22 C in many places and limited coastal cloud or fog.


    Forecasts for Britain

    Showers ending today, then some sunny intervals later, rain again tonight and much of tomorrow with highs today about 17-21 C, overnight lows 9-12 and highs tomorrow near 19 C. Some heavy rainfalls possible in Wales, west Midlands, inland south. Gradual improvements on Thursday, then the warm dry spell likely to dominate from Friday on.


    North American forecasts

    Isaac has been reluctant to reach hurricane intensity despite minimal wind shear and few obstructions in the region, perhaps later today this will occur before landfall tonight cuts off further development. A moderate storm surge and heavy rainfalls are likely (much of the moisture is currently on the south side of the storm). Landfall may take place over far eastern Louisiana but the largest impacts appear destined for the MS coast and Mobile Bay in Alabama.

    Meanwhile, widespread frontal rains have spread into the east-central states and will link up with Isaac by tonight. Otherwise, it is warm and dry across much of the continent especially central regions, with a few scattered monsoon storms over the inland southwest, and weak showery fronts spreading inland across British Columbia into Alberta. Temperatures will be near 32 C in parts of central-western Canada and the northern plains states ahead of a weak frontal trough.

    My local weather on Monday was mostly sunny with patchy high cloud and a pleasant high near 20 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Wednesday, 29 August, 2012
    _________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Heavy showers with some thunder and hail will spread across the country, but it may be dry until mid-day in some parts of Leinster. High humidity levels developing giving a warm feel before the showers arrive. Eventually, most places will see 10-20 mms of rain with a slight risk of local flooding most likely in central counties. Highs 16-18 C. Some gusty SW winds and the risk of some squally westerly winds later with gusts to 45 mph.

    TONIGHT ... Showers becoming less frequent, cooler and fresher with winds veering to NW 25-45 mph. Lows 7-10 C.

    THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, and a clearing trend for the south and west, in moderate NW winds 20-40 mph. Highs 15-18 C.

    FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine and warmer in parts of the south, cloudier north with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, morning lows 5-8 C and highs 17-20 C.

    SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, coastal low cloud and drizzle mainly northwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 20 C.

    SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Warm sunny intervals, feeling hot in some inland southern and central counties, highs reaching 23-25 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warm to hot spell could last quite a while into the new month. Our summer's highest temperature contest may not be settled for a while yet. :)


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... A few heavy showers in Scotland, a dry start in western England and Wales but increasing cloud, evening showers. Morning showers then clearing further east. Highs about 21 C south to 17 C Scotland.

    TONIGHT ... Frequent heavy showers and some thunder, lows 13-16 C.

    THURSDAY ... Showers, isolated hail and thunder, breezy to windy, highs around 17 or 18 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland with a warm or even hot spell developing.


    Forecasts for North America

    Heavy rains will continue across parts of Louisiana, southern MS and other parts of the southeast states. Storm force winds will gradually relent before the rain stops falling, as remnants of Isaac move further inland. Hot and dry across much of the central and western U.S. and into southern Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, and across the lower Great Lakes into the eastern states, highs near 32 C in the larger cities of the eastern U.S. and 35-40 C in some parts of the central plains states, southwestern U.S.

    My weather on Tuesday was cloudy with light showers (for a change) and highs near 21 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Thursday, 30 August, 2012
    _________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Variable cloud, more sunshine south of Limerick to Dublin, passing showers mostly confined to north, and an afternoon clearing trend for the south and west, in moderate NW winds 20-40 mph, becoming less blustery in the south around mid-day. Highs 15-18 C, warmest near south coast.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cool, lows 4-7 C, temperatures likely to rise in the western half of the country after midnight as cloud moves in, with coastal drizzle (near 10 C). Light winds for most.

    FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine and warmer in parts of the south, cloudier north with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and highs 17-20 C, warmest east and southeast inland.

    SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, coastal low cloud and drizzle mainly northwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 20 C.

    SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Warm sunny intervals for parts of the south, feeling hot in some inland southern and central counties, highs reaching 23-25 C. More cloud in west, central and north, highs near 20 C inland and 17-19 C coastal.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warm to hot spell could last quite a while into the new month in the south, inland. Our summer's highest temperature contest may not be settled for a while yet. Kirk is expected to become a hurricane east of Bermuda this weekend but its further evolution seems most likely to be a rapid weakening in the central Atlantic during the following week with only a limited, if any, effect on Ireland. The next storm that forms south of Kirk might eventually become a player in the eastern Atlantic in about two weeks' time.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Showers, isolated hail and thunder, breezy to windy, highs around 17 or 18 C for most, 19-21 C southeast. Some severe storms are possible in the east Midlands and northeast England.

    TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, showers ending, lows 7-10 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland with a warm or even hot spell developing in parts of the south and central England, Wales. More cloud and drizzle in a warm, muggy southwest flow further north. Highs could reach 24-27 C in some parts of southern England during this spell and it could last much of next week.


    Forecasts for North America

    Heavy rains continue today in parts of LA, MS, spreading to AR, TN as weakening Isaac slogs north, soon to be downgraded to a tropical depression. A large area of warm to hot, dry weather holds firm across central and northern parts of the U.S. and adjacent southern Canada. Highs will reach 32-35 C in many places and 35-42 C in some parts of the south-central plains states. Under the cloud and rain it's a muggy 26 C but the main issue there is 100-200 mms of additional rain (the further north this goes, the more it changes from a problem to a blessing to drought-parched regions like the Ohio valley. The rainstorm will probably bring 50-100 mms as far north as Indiana, Ohio and parts of Michigan and southern Ontario by the weekend, which in the U.S. is Labor Day (Monday), in Canada Labour Day obviously quite different. )

    My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with the odd bright interval and a few sprinkles of rain, looked showery off to the north at times with towering cumulus embedded in a general stratocumulus cloud deck at about 3500' ... the high was about 19 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Friday, 31 August, 2012
    _________________________________

    Astronomy note: Full moon occurs today at 2:59 p.m. IST.


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with drizzle or light rain at first, some brighter intervals developing with hazy sunshine possible inland south by afternoon. Warm and humid especially southern and central counties. Rainfalls only about 1-4 mms at most, highs 17-20 C with warmest readings around Laois and Carlow, Tipps and Limerick.

    TONIGHT ... Hazy, some low cloud and drizzle near west coast at times, mild, lows 11-13 C.

    SATURDAY ... Variable cloud at first, then an interval of cloud and drizzle or light rain, possibly missing a few parts of the south but giving 2-5 mms to parts of the north, brighter intervals again late afternoon and evening, warm and humid. Highs 18-22 C.

    SUNDAY ... Morning fog or mist, hazy sunshine developing, warm away from the coasts where some low cloud or fog will be persistent ... lows 11-14 C and highs 19-23 C.

    MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine inland south, increasing cloud elsewhere, outbreaks of light or moderate rain possible especially for Connacht and west Ulster. Overnight a period of stronger SW winds and rain could brush parts of the northwest, and this risk extends into Tuesday, due to remnants of "Kirk" although this storm could have disintegrated by the time it passes Donegal Bay. Highs on Monday and Tuesday could reach 22-24 C in parts of the south and about 18-21 C elsewhere.

    OUTLOOK ... Further warm and in some parts sunny weather seems likely once this frontal wave containing remnants of Kirk moves past, with higher pressure building up again. Highs could remain in the lower 20s for some, 18 to 21 C in general. It is too soon to speculate on the final stages of expected strong hurricane "Leslie" (already a tropical storm) that appears destined to recurve near Bermuda and pass eastern Canada late next week. It could become a factor late in the week or around the weekend of 8-9 September but about equal chances exist that it might head off further north or recurve more rapidly back to the southeast.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers but mostly dry, highs about 18 C.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals but coastal cloud, drizzle, lows 7-10 C.

    FRIDAY to TUESDAY ... Southern regions should be mainly warm and dry with some hazy sunshine breaking through rather widespread mist and cloud, highs about 22-24 C inland. More cloud, drizzle or light rain at times further north, and the risk of a period of stronger winds and rain arriving on Monday night.


    Forecasts for North America

    The heavy rainfalls from "Isaac" will move north into Missouri, Kentucky and southern Illinois-Indiana while tapering off in Arkansas, northern Louisiana and Mississippi. The southeast will have isolated thunderstorms in a warm, humid southerly flow, highs 28-32 C. Warm to hot, and dry further north in the eastern U.S. and Great Lakes where the rain can be expected later in the weekend (eventually tapering off to showers as remnants of the storm reach New York state by Labor Day). Meanwhile, continued very warm to hot and mostly dry central and western regions, with weak fronts bringing a few showers to inland B.C. and western Alberta. A few monsoonal storms will hit Utah and northern Arizona.

    My local weather on Thursday was pleasant with a lot of sunshine and scattered shower clouds off to the north over the mountains. Highs reached about 20 C. Clear skies this evening presented a good view of the rising full moon.

    FACTOID ... With Leslie forming earlier Thursday, this marks the second earliest date for the 12th named storm (since 1870 if you overlook the fact that storms were not named until around 1950), only 1995 managed an earlier "L" storm (Luis) by one day. In 2005 which set most of these records, Katrina was moving inland on the 30th and the L storm had not yet formed although six more storms would quickly follow (Rita was another cat-5 that entered the Gulf in late September; that season eventually ran to 28 named storms). The current count of 8 named storms for August is nearly a record also. The overall intensity of this season has not been as impressive as the frequency.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Saturday, 1 September, 2012
    _________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Hazy sunshine in most regions early, lasting to mid-day in the south and east, becoming partly cloudy then overcast, with an interval of drizzle or light rain, possibly missing a few parts of the south but giving 2-5 mms to parts of the north and west, where brighter intervals could develop again by late afternoon and evening, generally warm and humid. Highs between 18 and 22 C with highest values likely near the south coast and inland southeast.

    TONIGHT ... Rain or drizzle at times in the southeast, foggy or misty by morning, cloudy but some clearing later in the west and north. Mild with lows around 11-13 C.

    SUNDAY ... Morning fog or mist, drizzle ending in southeast before noon, hazy sunshine developing from west to east, becoming warm away from the coasts where some low cloud or fog will be persistent ... highs 19-23 C.

    MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine inland south, increasing cloud elsewhere, outbreaks of light or moderate rain possible especially for Connacht and west Ulster. Warm especially inland south and east with highs 20-24 C. Overnight a period of stronger SW winds and rain could brush parts of the northwest, and this risk extends into Tuesday morning there, due to remnants of "Kirk" although this storm could have disintegrated by the time it passes Donegal Bay as part of a frontal wave. Rainfalls generally slight but could reach 5-10 mms in parts of Ulster.

    TUESDAY ... Morning cloud and a few showers in Ulster, clearing to partly sunny or hazy sunshine, morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs 19-22.

    OUTLOOK ... Further warm and in some parts sunny weather seems likely once this frontal wave containing remnants of Kirk moves past, with higher pressure building up again. Highs could remain in the lower 20s for some, 18 to 20 C in general. It is still too soon to speculate on the final stages of expected strong hurricane "Leslie" (already a tropical storm) that appears destined to recurve near Bermuda and pass eastern Canada in about two weeks. If it evolves a bit faster, it could become a factor in Irish weather patterns later in the second week of September or around the weekend of 15-16 September and in fact the current 15-16 day GFS model charts show a very strong low near Iceland as the final result with a 30-40 knot westerly gradient for Ulster at that time trending to 20-30 knots in the south. This will be a situation to watch.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and warm in many places, low cloud more likely in some west coast districts, highs generally 20-23 C.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy at times, rain spreading into western regions later, only about 2-5 mms, lows 12-16 C.

    SUNDAY to TUESDAY ... Southern regions should be mainly warm and dry with some hazy sunshine breaking through rather widespread mist and cloud, highs about 22-24 C inland. More cloud, drizzle or light rain at times further north, and the risk of a period of stronger winds and rain arriving on Monday night in western Scotland from "Kirk." (seems appropriate that Kirk would make landfall in Scotland) ... FURTHER OUTLOOK warm and dry in many places later in the week, highs 22-25 C inland, 19-22 C coastal.


    Forecasts for North America

    The heavy rainfalls from remnants of "Isaac" will now move northeast into parts of IL-IN while tapering off in Missouri and Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee. The southeast will become warm and dry, with increasing cloud further north ahead of the rain. Continuing warm to hot, and dry further north in the eastern Great Lakes, New England. A few isolated storms will develop in parts of western Canada but otherwise most central and western regions will be warm and dry.

    My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to sunny at times, with a few towering cumulus visible to west and north (hail reported about 100 kms northeast of here) and the high about 21 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Sunday, 2 September, 2012
    _________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Morning fog or mist and some drizzle ending in southeast soon, then hazy sunshine developing from west to east, becoming warm away from the outer west coast where some low cloud or fog may be more persistent ... highs 19-23 C warmest inland southeast.

    TONIGHT ... Hazy clear skies with mist and fog patches developing. Lows about 11-13 C.

    MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine inland south, increasing cloud elsewhere, outbreaks of light or moderate rain possible especially for Connacht and west Ulster (from weak remnants of "Kirk"). Warm especially inland south and east with highs 20-24 C. Afternoon and early overnight a period of stronger SW winds and rain could brush parts of the northwest, and this risk extends into Tuesday morning there, rainfalls generally slight but could reach 5-10 mms in northern parts of Ulster. Many parts of the south will remain dry.

    TUESDAY ... Morning cloud and a few showers in Ulster, cloudy intervals further south, clearing to partly sunny or hazy sunshine, morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs 19-22.

    WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine and warm with some coastal low cloud or fog, lows 7-10 C and highs 18-21 C.

    THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Partly sunny although cloudier north, warm, morning fog or mist. Highs about 20-23 C after morning lows 6-9 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The pattern will stay rather warm although a little more unsettled by next weekend, and into the following week. Any rainfalls should be brief and slight in amounts. Models continue to show a strong extratropical low from "Leslie" crossing the Atlantic around the 12th to 14th with at least a glancing blow for the north and west -- details of course won't be too clear on that for several more days at least.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Partly cloudy and warm, some light showers across the south dissipating as they go further east. Highs generally 20-23 C.

    TONIGHT ... Fog patches, hazy, mild. Lows 9-12 C (13-15 C southeast and London).

    MONDAY and TUESDAY ... Southern regions should be mainly warm and dry with some hazy sunshine breaking through rather widespread mist and cloud, highs about 22-24 C inland. More cloud, drizzle or light rain at times further north, and the risk of a period of stronger winds and rain arriving on Monday night in western Scotland from "Kirk." (seems appropriate that Kirk would make landfall in Scotland) ... FURTHER OUTLOOK warm and dry in many places later in the week, highs 22-25 C inland, 19-22 C coastal.


    Forecasts for North America

    Rain moving into parts of the northeast and Great Lakes region as dry weather retreats into Quebec and New England. Amounts generally 25-50 mms as "Isaac" continues to weaken. A few heavy showers or storms in the Ohio valley, mainly dry and hot in the southeast. Generally dry and warm to hot in central and western regions, outbreaks of heavy showers in central parts of Manitoba-Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta.

    My local weather on Saturday was very pleasant with mostly sunny skies, a few cloudy intervals, and highs near 21 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Monday, 3 September, 2012
    _________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Hazy sunshine inland south and east coast, increasing cloud elsewhere, outbreaks of light or moderate rain possible especially for Connacht and west Ulster (from weak remnants of "Kirk"). Warm especially inland south and east with highs 20-24 C. Afternoon and early overnight a period of stronger SW winds to 30-50 mph, and rain could brush parts of the northwest; this risk extends into early Tuesday morning there, rainfalls generally slight but could reach 5-10 mms in northern parts of Ulster. Many parts of the south will remain dry.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear breaks persisting in the south, any lingering showers likely to be brief and amounts only 1-3 mms at most, some southern locations remaining dry. Lows 10-13 C as winds veer to westerly at about 15-30 mph (30-50 mph north) then drop off later.

    TUESDAY ... Morning cloud and a few showers in Ulster, cloudy intervals further south, clearing to partly sunny or hazy sunshine, highs 19-22.

    WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine and warm with some coastal low cloud or fog, lows 7-10 C and highs 18-21 C.

    THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Partly sunny although cloudier north, warm, morning fog or mist. Highs about 20-23 C after morning lows 6-9 C. Some drizzle could fall near north and northwest coasts but otherwise it should remain dry.

    OUTLOOK ... The pattern will stay rather warm although a little more unsettled by next weekend, and into the following week. Any rainfalls should be brief and slight in amounts. Models continue to show a strong extratropical low from "Leslie" crossing the Atlantic around the 12th to 14th with some indications on model runs earlier today of an intense storm potential for Ireland 14th-15th ... this has been downgraded on the 00z GFS but the ECM keeps us in suspense with its final day showing Leslie moving east at about 45 deg N, beginning to phase with a larger low near Iceland. In any case these are little more than interesting scenarios at this time range, much could change between now and this time next week when a more reliable forecast might be possible for Leslie.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Partly cloudy and warm, becoming windy later in the day across Scotland and parts of northern England (SW 30-50 mph) with an interval of light rain by this evening. Highs 23-26 C south to 17-20 C north.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some fog patches inland south, rain at times further north where quite windy (WSW 30-50 mph), mild. Lows 11-15 C.

    TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers mainly north, a bit cooler in fresh westerly winds 30-50 mph north, 15-30 mph south. Highs 19-22 C south, central incl Wales, and 15-17 C in Scotland.

    OUTLOOK ... Dry and warm for most as high pressure builds up, highs around 21 to 23 C and rather cool at night with extensive fog developing, lows 5-8 C in rural sections and 8-12 C in cities.


    Forecasts for North America

    Remnants of Isaac continue to weaken south of the Great Lakes but a weak front sliding southeast across the Great Lakes will tend to amplify the rain somewhat later today. Another low has formed south of Nova Scotia from another section of Isaac's original circulation (the part that moved up the east coast) and this will now be the main remnant feature. Dry and warm again across most central and western regions, especially across the Rockies and west coast.

    My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a high near 22 C. Warmer temperatures are in the forecast for the rest of this week (25-28 C).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Tuesday, 4 September, 2012
    _________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Morning cloud and patchy drizzle should clear at least partially to hazy sunshine, although a secondary area of cloud may appear later across the south. It will be fresher than the past two days with highs 17-21 C highest near the east coast.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches developing, chilly. Lows 5-8 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine and warm with some coastal low cloud or fog, and highs 18-21 C.

    THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Partly sunny although cloudier north, warm, morning fog or mist. Highs about 20-23 C after morning lows 6-9 C. Some drizzle could fall near north and northwest coasts but otherwise it should remain dry.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The pattern will stay rather warm although a little more unsettled by the weekend, with stronger SW winds developing and an interval of showers or rain late Saturday clearing gradually on Sunday, highs near 21 C Saturday and 18 C Sunday. There may be a few warmer and dry days to follow, before remnants of Leslie arrive in two stages around the following weekend. The models have downgraded the potential for an intense wind storm event but this could re-appear as we still have the better part of two weeks, at the moment, Leslie is expected to brush past southeast Newfoundland in about 8-9 days. The ECM still has a strong extratropical low not that far north of Ireland near the end of its run, the GFS is weaker now, and the GEM signals a storm coming close to Ireland in ten days, so the models continue to "chop and change."


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers mainly north and east this morning, general clearing to follow, and a bit cooler in fresh westerly winds 30-50 mph north, 15-30 mph south. Highs 19-22 C south, central incl Wales, and 15-17 C in Scotland.

    TONIGHT ... Gradually decreasing westerly winds, clear intervals, chilly especially away from the southeast, lows generally 5-8 C but 8-11 C in London and the southeast.

    OUTLOOK ... Dry and warm for most as high pressure builds up, highs around 21 to 23 C and rather cool at night with extensive fog developing, lows 5-8 C in rural sections and 8-12 C in cities. Showers by Sunday morning.


    Forecasts for North America

    Showers across the southern Great Lakes and parts of the northeast, warm and humid, highs 23-27 C. Variable cloud further south, isolated thunderstorms, hot and humid ... highs 28-31 C. Mainly dry central and western states, adjacent southern Canada, warm.

    My local weather on Monday was mostly sunny with a high near 23 C.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

    Wednesday, 5 September, 2012
    _________________________________


    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and becoming warm by mid-day and afternoon, with some coastal low cloud or fog possible at times in Connacht and Ulster, with highs 17-21 C. Warmest inland southeast and west Munster.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches developing, chilly. Lows 5-8 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Partly sunny although cloudier north, warm, morning fog or mist. Highs about 20-23 C after morning lows 6-9 C. Some drizzle could fall near north and northwest coasts but otherwise it should remain dry.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The pattern will stay rather warm although a little more unsettled by the weekend, with stronger SW winds developing and an interval of showers or rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning, clearing gradually later on Sunday at least in western districts, although showers may persist longer in the east, with highs near 21 C Saturday and 18 C Sunday.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The verdict for next week has changed more to an unsettled pattern with frequent showers and temperatures near normal. The North American models now take "Leslie" well north across Newfoundland before turning the extratropical storm east around Greenland and Iceland. However, these models do allow development of a strong low in the wake of that evolution closer to Ireland, once again around the weekend of 15th-16th but meanwhile the ECM brings "Leslie" across Newfoundland then creates a complex series of frontal troughs in which the energy is fairly continuous through the second half of the week for Ireland. None of these model efforts are too convincing yet, and basically anything could happen (this storm is becoming more powerful but moving very slowly, which creates a large potential for error in position and track, also now we have a weaker system, "Michael" located to the east-north-east in the central Atlantic, interacting with "Leslie" over the 3-5 day period.


    Forecasts for Britain

    TODAY ... Mostly sunny except for an interval of cloud in parts of Wales and west Midlands this morning, remnants of which cloud may spread towards the southeast mid-day. Highs 20-23 C. Scotland may be somewhat cooler in stronger westerly breezes and isolated showers near west coast.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, chilly especially away from the southeast, lows generally 6-9 C but 9-13 C in London and the southeast.

    OUTLOOK ... Dry and warm for most as high pressure builds up, highs around 21 to 23 C and rather cool at night with extensive fog developing, lows 5-8 C in rural sections and 8-12 C in cities. Showers by Sunday morning into later Sunday and then unsettled next week.


    Forecasts for North America

    Widespread heavy showers in eastern Canada and parts of the Great Lakes and northeast states, with a second area developing Midwest and western Great Lakes by evening. Somewhat cooler across western Canada except for west coast, but holding on to very warm and dry conditions across the west and most of the central U.S. as well as border regions of the Canadian prairies. My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and very warm, 24 C at my location, about 18 C closer to the harbour where I noticed quite a strong sea breeze that didn't make it a further 10 kms inland.


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