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Good time to buy AIB or BOI shares???

  • 02-10-2008 2:34pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 668 ✭✭✭Rockfish


    I dont have a clue about the stock market but have come into a bit of money suddenly and a mate who is well up on these matters reckons i should invest in shares in either BOI or AIB as they are bound to rise in the short term anyway. I'm a bit dubious but think i'll take his advice. Am i doing the right thing??


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    2 days ago maybe, i know of someone who got shares @ 329, now @ ~456

    but in terms of more growth short term, i wouldnt know?!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,152 ✭✭✭Idu


    There is more uncertainty in the markets than ever before and especially in the financial sector. The government bail out, if it gets passed, should be good news for BOI and AIB but they still have issues of their own to deal with. If they get into trouble and the government have to intervene then expect the shareholders to be the ones to take the hit. So if you fancy a gamble lump it on. Why the rush to give away the money you've got unexpectedly?

    And one of the best rules of investing: dont trade on tips.

    There's a big thread around here somewhere covering this very topic. Have a look through it. Some really good advice in there


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭Time Magazine


    Rockfish wrote: »
    I'm a bit dubious but think i'll take his advice. Am i doing the right thing??

    No. Unless your mate's name is Warren Buffet, don't put it anywhere unless you're sure it's a good investment.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 178 ✭✭jaycen


    Bad plan, they may be safe but there's still a lot of bad news on the way from existing silly mortgages.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭daveyjoe


    It's a complete gamble at the moment. Definitely stay away, unless your friend knows something that Joe Public doesn't.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    How many posts are there going to be like this ?

    I have a load of money (insert amount here - €10,000 / €25,000 etc)

    I haven't a clue about the stock market / what drives valuations etc.

    Bank stocks are down so now they must go back up right ?

    They were a tenner, now they are a fiver - should I buy more etc . . .

    Please, give me advice for free on Boards.ie what I should do . . . .

    . . . .

    Maybe a mod could start a thread / stickie for all these types of posts ???


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭rugbyman


    I really enjoy learning about the theory and scientific stuff from Pocketdooz, Janets on clubs, Stepbar(lying low at moment) and Mr Mc Williams.

    there are lots of people asking the same questions and they may not have read the earlier threads.

    Some weeks ago i gave my opinion that there were fortunes to be made in all of this mayhem and being scientific was not the way to go.

    With my childrens savings I invested 4,500. In week one I made a profit of 1200 euro.approx. ( bought Bof I at 4.40 sold at 5.60)

    two weeks later i reinvested half the original amount in the same share at 3.96 and sold 36 hours later for 5.26 , a gain after costs of approx 500.

    when they fell back to 3.89 I re invested 2 k and bought another 500 shares.
    Sold them today at 4,72, realising a gain of ..83 per share , around 300 euro after costs and taxes.

    I bought 1,000 shares in Ryanair at 2.38, failed to sell when up 600,then 500, but will do when they reach that again.
    Overall, my portfolio(scoff if you like) is up from 4,500 to 6,500 in eight weeks. reach for the abacus and see what % return that is.
    Tonight it is almost all back in cash

    Guys who probably dont post on Boards have made hundreds of times more than I have. a Roller coaster can occasionally be a good ride.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    rugbyman wrote: »
    I really enjoy learning about the theory and scientific stuff from Pocketdooz, Janets on clubs, Stepbar(lying low at moment) and Mr Mc Williams.

    there are lots of people asking the same questions and they may not have read the earlier threads.

    Some weeks ago i gave my opinion that there were fortunes to be made in all of this mayhem and being scientific was not the way to go.

    With my childrens savings I invested 4,500. In week one I made a profit of 1200 euro.approx. ( bought Bof I at 4.40 sold at 5.60)

    two weeks later i reinvested half the original amount in the same share at 3.96 and sold 36 hours later for 5.26 , a gain after costs of approx 500.

    when they fell back to 3.89 I re invested 2 k and bought another 500 shares.
    Sold them today at 4,72, realising a gain of ..83 per share , around 300 euro after costs and taxes.

    I bought 1,000 shares in Ryanair at 2.38, failed to sell when up 600,then 500, but will do when they reach that again.
    Overall, my portfolio(scoff if you like) is up from 4,500 to 6,500 in eight weeks. reach for the abacus and see what % return that is.
    Tonight it is almost all back in cash

    Guys who probably dont post on Boards have made hundreds of times more than I have. a Roller coaster can occasionally be a good ride.

    That's a good run Rugbyman - I read the earlier post you're refering to - to be honest I didn't think much of the idea at the time - primarily cos it was your kids savings and secondly because I think I said before that long-term (kids to college etc.etc.) your best bet was to buy and hold a basket of the Irish bank stocks (talking 10 years+ here) and re-invest the dividends or just lump it into an 8% savings account and watch it quadruple in 18 years . . . . but it seems to have worked out for you and best of luck with it - I hope it continues to work out for you. Two points I would make (I'm a bankroll nit) - try and diversify a little bit more and if you sit down and figure out your transaction costs and taxes you might see they've likely eaten up a lot of your profits. You seem to be concentrating on the most volatile of stocks ? I could easily figure out a pattern where you would have guessed (and come on you have to admit you're kind of guessing here ;)) wrong on those trades and your kids savings would be down to €2,500 from €4,500 instead of the other way around - using the same stocks and the same time periods just trading in and out on different days.

    Anyway - good luck and if you start thinking long-term at any stage read my post re: nanotechnology stocks


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭rugbyman


    I have read your post on nano. Last week in france i bought an interesting investors magazine where it reviewed shares and gave their verdict. there was one such nano.

    Re my exploits, I was very lucky that b of I fell from their 5.50 ledge while I was
    finding the buy button on my NIB website. Otherwise I may still have them. I do not see any great gains again in a short time. But despite the blasted heath, I think Bof I and AIB will be worth 15 % more in the short term and maybe never see dizzy heights( 8 to 10 euro per share) for year.

    One question, with all the Science, why did no one forecast this.

    Regards,Rugbyman


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,123 ✭✭✭stepbar


    Good luck but be very careful with what you invest in. Your children won't thank you. That being said it's your money at the end of the day :D As I said to one customer of mine who I suggested that he start saving for his kids future - "You can take it back if you want"!! :D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Poncherello


    Trading Irish Banks right now is like playing a f*cked up version of russian roulette - wake up - one or two or three of them are going to zero.
    Rugbyman you will find out about it during one of your 36 hour forays into the market at what seems like a great buy
    kids savings - what are you like


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 365 ✭✭DJDC


    I don't understand why people here only want to play in Irish stocks, there's hundreds of banks in Europe alone you could play. Look elsewhere IMO, think the worst is over for financials look at the XLF (an ETF), much more diversified than playing the Irish banking sector.

    Because the average Joe who invests in Irish bank equities isnt exactly what you would call an 'intelligent investor'. Most of them wouldnt know what a where the DAX is, what the 5 biggest banks in Europe are etc.

    Leave them to keep throwing their money down a hole. They are just providing liquidity for the guys on the right side of the trades ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭siralan


    Hey pocketdooz

    What about RBS shares? They were at one stage 21.50 and are now down to 1.89.

    I would like to put some money into one of the banks but dont know how to go about it. Is it safer to do it in branch or is it easier to do it online?

    Any advice anyone could give me would be much appreciated


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭daveyjoe


    siralan wrote: »
    Hey pocketdooz

    What about RBS shares? They were at one stage 21.50 and are now down to 1.89.

    I would like to put some money into one of the banks but dont know how to go about it. Is it safer to do it in branch or is it easier to do it online?

    Any advice anyone could give me would be much appreciated
    Are you considering investing in RBS for any other reason other than the fact that they've taken a large drop?
    That's not a rhetorical question by the way!


  • Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭siralan


    Used to work for Ulster Bank who are owned by RBS so I have always kept an eye on their share price.

    I am banking on European intervention or UK intervention in the banking crisis which would put some confidence back into the UK banking system and therefore lead to a increase in share price?

    Maybe Im clutching at straws but the fact their price is on the floor it hard to imagine further decrease in share price?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭daveyjoe


    siralan wrote: »
    Used to work for Ulster Bank who are owned by RBS so I have always kept an eye on their share price.

    I am banking on European intervention or UK intervention in the banking crisis which would put some confidence back into the UK banking system and therefore lead to a increase in share price?

    Maybe Im clutching at straws but the fact their price is on the floor it hard to imagine further decrease in share price?
    You do realise that they could hit zero, don't you?

    By the way, I just checked it out and the vast majority of that drop in share price was due to RBS splitting their shares. They gave out 2 bonus shares for each share in May 2007.

    http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=RBS&share=royal_bank_scot
    (Change the chart's timescale to 2 years.)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    siralan wrote: »
    Hey pocketdooz

    What about RBS shares? They were at one stage 21.50 and are now down to 1.89.

    I would like to put some money into one of the banks but dont know how to go about it. Is it safer to do it in branch or is it easier to do it online?

    Any advice anyone could give me would be much appreciated

    My advice would be not to invest in any of the Irish banks now.

    Put any money you have in a savings account and wait for a better opportunity in a year or so's time . . .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,720 ✭✭✭El Stuntman


    siralan wrote: »
    Used to work for Ulster Bank who are owned by RBS so I have always kept an eye on their share price.

    I am banking on European intervention or UK intervention in the banking crisis which would put some confidence back into the UK banking system and therefore lead to a increase in share price?

    Maybe Im clutching at straws but the fact their price is on the floor it hard to imagine further decrease in share price?

    you obviously don't have a very good imagination

    they're down below £1 per share


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  • Posts: 8,016 ✭✭✭ Kasen Old-fashioned Selenium


    I've been involved in mortgages for three years and the only bank that are still able to lend at a decent level are AIB because they have stayed ultra conservative even during the boom years. They are also generally the only bank hiring at the moment in Ireland. I know this, because I was made redundant 3 weeks ago and have been looking for something.

    If I was to invest in any Irish bank at the moment it would be AIB. Pity that I don't have the flexibility to throw around money at the moment but when/if (:p) I get a new job I'll throw a bit of the savings in AIB.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    I've been involved in mortgages for three years and the only bank that are still able to lend at a decent level are AIB because they have stayed ultra conservative even during the boom years. They are also generally the only bank hiring at the moment in Ireland. I know this, because I was made redundant 3 weeks ago and have been looking for something.

    If I was to invest in any Irish bank at the moment it would be AIB. Pity that I don't have the flexibility to throw around money at the moment but when/if (:p) I get a new job I'll throw a bit of the savings in AIB.

    Not true - IIB are still offering mortgages. - Just got one myself at 92.5% LTV for 5.95%

    also, Anglo, IIB and ILP are still hiring - people I know just started with them recently. (also IFS, if you consider them a bank)

    Wouldn't touch AIB common equity myself at the moment TBH - maybe you would 'throw' money at them but you'd be better off not IMO

    PS - 'Ultra-conservative' ??




    .


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭pocketdooz


    pocketdooz wrote: »
    My advice would be not to invest in any of the Irish banks now.

    Put any money you have in a savings account and wait for a better opportunity in a year or so's time . . .

    RBS Shares

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c580893a-9437-11dd-953e-000077b07658,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fc580893a-9437-11dd-953e-000077b07658.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus

    . . .

    There are loads of posts now asking if people should buy bank stocks . . .

    Basically the point is stay away from bank stocks til we all know what's going on. At the mooment , buying any bank's common equity is just suicide - a total gamble that could work or could not. Like roulette


  • Posts: 8,016 ✭✭✭ Kasen Old-fashioned Selenium


    pocketdooz wrote: »
    Not true - IIB are still offering mortgages. - Just got one myself at 92.5% LTV for 5.95%

    also, Anglo, IIB and ILP are still hiring - people I know just started with them recently. (also IFS, if you consider them a bank)

    Wouldn't touch AIB common equity myself at the moment TBH - maybe you would 'throw' money at them but you'd be better off not IMO

    PS - 'Ultra-conservative' ??




    .

    Actually,
    You must of got really lucky there or got approved a month or two ago. IIB have gotten rid of their tracker rates. IIB are in so much trouble that there is a take over and they are changing their name to KBC at the end of the month. So check that out if you want. Also, checkout AIB's rates compared to theirs. AIB have clearly showed that they are still able to lend competively while the other bank's rates are generally take it or leave it.

    Ultra Conversative meaning cherry picking their business. It has to be well over the line to get approval. They assess cases the old fashioned way by assessing it at 4.5 times your income. While your FAs, UBs , PTSB , IIBs etc still assess it by your net disposable income(NDI).

    In my defense regarding investing in AIB - there was a very good article in the Indo at the weekend and AIB were the bank they were most confident about surviving the current crisis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭kaiser sauze


    No, for too many reasons that I don't have time to type up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭Grawns


    I have some aib shares that were left to me by my grandmother who inherited them from her father ( as well as boi). Both have done well over the years and as long as you think of them as a very long term investment I think now is an excellent time to buy. The Phoenix put boi's debt ratio as more positive then aib and they have been undervalued in the past. I will probably buy €1000 worth and expect to cash them in in 20 years time.

    ps. Only buy them if you can afford to loose the money as lets face it, times are crazy. I have some spare money left from wedding gifts so easy come easy go.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭kaiser sauze


    Grawns wrote: »
    Only buy them if you can afford to loose the money as lets face it, times are crazy. I have some spare money left from wedding gifts so easy come easy go.

    What an insane, and disrespectful, attitude to money.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 260 ✭✭Baird


    What an insane, and disrespectful, attitude to money.

    +1 :cool:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,707 ✭✭✭skywalker


    Ive read through this entire thread & despite the warnings am still thinking about buying shares in AIB, or perhaps a larger foreign bank, HSBC. Thinking along similar lines to grawns, between €1-5K for a long term investment.

    For someone whos never bought shares before, whats the easiest way to do this?


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