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Winter 2011/2012

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Kippure wrote: »
    These are just notes and observations at the moment. But if you notice the warmer seas around our coast at the moment, WHEN we get the "BEAST from the EAST" in January, expect to see Explosive Snow streamers coming in off the Irish sea, due to very cold air rushing accross very warm water....








    Uploaded with ImageShack.us
    Theres confidence for you.
    But there are no signs of it happening.

    NAO is positive.At the rate things are going to get that negative and the delay beyond that for any high pressure to set it self up mid atlantic and tilt in the right way to drag down said north easterlies,it will be march or april.
    By which time it will be too late.
    Iirc,the NAO was negative for most of the year in 2010..

    Contrast that with 2011 and you can see theres a lot of bedding in to be done with the as of now non existent high pressure so getting hopes up is futile.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Nope.
    You can have an effective severe cold in February,even march.
    Anytime from mid January to the end of February is the window.
    After that,It's bring on the heat please.

    Iirc february 1991 did not involve an atlantic high,it was a super strong perfectly positioned scandi high and it delivered sub zero days and plenty snow :)

    I'd agree,the lack of any real winter weather in sight is disheartening for the cold lovers.

    I don't rate the current spell at all.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    January is historically more common for a big freeze event to occur. We have 1 or even 2 months left until we can dash our hopes :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    17 days in lads.......to early for this.:)


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    The infamous winter of 1947 only got going mid to end of January, up to that it had been a pretty mild and wet winter.

    The problem is that we were spoilt last year with possibly one of the earliest (in terms of winter) cold and snowy periods on record.

    In the olden days I never expected snow before Christmas, it was always after Christmas that thoughts would turn to snow hunting!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    :D:D
    Kippure wrote: »
    17 days in lads.......to early for this.:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    Id like to draw peoples attention to the 2 nd part of last years big freeze at this time , frist the crew over on the strat forum on netweather said there was nout on cards before it came as in strat warming etc , so this shows us you cant just go by strat warming for a dip in the AO index . Another point is look how cold strat is yet we have had some very cold weather dublin has been colder then germany , warsaw , stockholm this past week .
    Below is what a us forecaster thinks
    However, I mentioned that the La Niña's influence would be weak. The true drivers of the long-term pattern will be the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the East Pacific Oscillation. A negative summer AO and NAO is associated with a negative AO and NAO the following winter. This past summer the AO was the third lowest it has ever been, and the NAO was the second lowest it has ever been. In addition, both indexes were solidly negative for each of the months of June, July, and August. This would support a solidly negative AO and NAO this winter. Solar geomagnetic activity is still low, which would suggest enhanced chances of strong blocking (negative AO). The QBO is turning from positive to negative, which could bring an interesting situation, with the AO being forced farther down by the –QBO at 30mb without the enhanced southeast ridge that a –QBO at 50mb would bring. The summer SST configuration in the north Atlantic is pointing towards a negative NAO, though not as much as it did last year. However, a deeper look reveals that this pattern is very strongly pointing towards a negative west-based NAO, that is, a blocking high between Baffin Island and Greenland. This supports cold in the eastern US way more than a negative east-based (high between Greenland and Iceland) or neutral-based (high right over Greenland) NAO does. There is some speculation that the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull slightly reduced the NAO and AO during 2010-2011. If so, then it is likely that this year's eruption of Grímsvötn will have a similar effect this winter. There is currently record cold air over Alaska and Canada, and it is only a matter of time until the pattern changes and brings this cold air down to the United States. The final consideration of these three is the EPO. A first glance at the current pattern shows that the EPO is strongly positive and has been for quite a while, with a very powerful vortex over Alaska. However, that is not supported at all by the increasingly obvious east basis of the La Niña. I expect the vortex to become a bit weaker, and, more importantly, to retrograde toward the Aleutian Islands as the month of December progresses. This seemingly small change makes a world of difference for the pattern, as it would switch the EPO from strongly positive to strongly negative once an upper-level high takes the vortex's place.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/wf_2011-2012.php
    As above post
    Deserves to be thrown in a big dustbin. Rubbish


  • Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭maw368


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    The infamous winter of 1947 only got going mid to end of January, up to that it had been a pretty mild and wet winter.

    The problem is that we were spoilt last year with possibly one of the earliest (in terms of winter) cold and snowy periods on record.

    In the olden days I never expected snow before Christmas, it was always after Christmas that thoughts would turn to snow hunting!


    Exactly, everyone I talk to keep comparing this winter to last year and saying ah well we've missed winter now and its crap in comparison. Last year was a freak of nature and I have always been the same, expecting and getting snow after christmas. I remember a few christmas days disappointed because I couldn't race my electric cars outside as it was still raining and then snow from late Jan until March; sadly though these have mostly been the wet kind of snow falls which are not as fun as the crispy stuff we had last year. Also these later snows tended to be short lived in my experience, often melted away withitn a couple of days. Last year was lovely, I got to enjoy a month of compacted snow and ice on my cycle to work.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    185536.JPG

    The Strat Warming at the beginning of last November was near record breaking even though it was not classed as a Major Midwinter Warming it DID play an important role in weakening the Polar Vortex for our cold spells later on.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    DEAR SANTA PLEASE CAN I HAVE THIS IN MY STOCKING THIS YEAR
    cfs-2-744_ryu7.png

    AND THIS

    prectypeuktopo.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    redsunset wrote: »
    185536.JPG

    The Strat Warming at the beginning of last November was near record breaking even though it was not classed as a Major Midwinter Warming it DID play an important role in weakening the Polar Vortex for our cold spells later on.

    So whats your views on any chances of cold in jan feb 2012
    can you see the AO dipping


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Baby steps,
    The Strat is so cold at the moment and not good cause this keeps a strong PV westerly flow,however get it to warm up somewhat and then this decreases Polar Vortex strength and gives us better chance of height rises,(negative AO).

    There have been several years when Nov and Dec strat have been almost as cold as now and in Jan arrived a Major strat warming,(84/85 as an example).So all is not lost.
    Monthly Mean Strat temps at 30mb

    1984 QBO East
    Nov -71
    Dec -73

    1985
    Jan -53 (Major Midwinter Warming)

    Result
    Jan - Feb 1985

    185539.JPG


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Maps drawn up focusing on La Nina central based years as we are currently in.


    Without a Strat Warming conditions in Jan

    185542.JPG


    With a Strat Warming conditions in Jan and i think is in line with M.T's view of Scandi high bringing easterly fllow

    185543.JPG


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    One of the coldest month's on record was February 1986.

    Mean Sea Level Pressure for Feb 86' based on 06z readings:
    185546.png
    Image Source: European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts

    A month of near constant easterlies drawn in from the heart of Europe.

    Bring them on again this February, (or any other month for that matter!)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Not really expecting a "big freeze" this winter myself, just because we don't get that many of them here, last winter was expectional, but it's impossible to know...

    All you can do is look at some of the signals and teleconnections but even then its just models and estimates based on historical examples. Nobody anywhere knows what kind of weather we'll actually have in one or two months time. Anyone who claims to know that for a fact is an idiot. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    The infamous winter of 1947 only got going mid to end of January, up to that it had been a pretty mild and wet winter.
    Not entirely true, there were signs of blocking and what was to come in December of that winter. This winter any cold seems to be hundreds of km east of Moscow. (sorry for nit picking!)

    Rrea00119461217.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    ............ and even when Ireland was under the influence of a mild Atlantic regime the blocking was still there.

    Rrea00119470103.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I'm gonna call it now. No big significant widespread snowfalls this winter. Nor extremely cold temperatures. I've right in predicting the past 19 winters. This will be my 20th correct one. No doubts.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    I'm gonna call it now. No big significant widespread snowfalls this winter. Nor extremely cold temperatures. I've right in predicting the past 19 winters. This will be my 20th correct one. No doubts.

    Lottery numbers please then?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    im not expecting major countrywide snow from this winter, I think we will see a few more cold snaps which hopefully turn out to be a bit more eventfull and easterly sourced than the current one but at same time im not really expecting 2 extreme cold snaps to the level we saw last winter. However with the exception of last winter, i do remember the majority of the good winters in the 80s where the majority of the snow fell in January or February and sometimes into March, even once in April.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It only takes a week to ten days for the Atlantic-dominated regime to fade out, blocking can develop that fast. Obviously what is needed is a stratwarm event to change the current circumpolar vortex that has given near-record values for the arctic oscillation. However those records were set in Dec 1990 which was a winter dominated by cold after about 10 January.

    I'm expecting a similar reversal this winter and it won't likely show up even in the further reaches of the model runs until late this month. The mild before Christmas was expected and a more variable trend will probably develop again after about the 27th. Cold may not win out for two or three weeks beyond that.

    Some encouraging signs are noted this week for later in the winter. Blocking is increasing in eastern Siberia. Model runs continue to flirt with high pressure at higher latitudes in western Europe. These are tentative signs in the right direction. Would not expect any sudden or dramatic shifts but gradual progress. This is rather conservative but I expect at least one of the two months Jan-Feb to be colder than normal, more likely January but would give a 65% probability that one of the two will be below and 30% that both would be below.

    Anyway, in some ways it's good to have a mild regime over the holiday period, people can get around and business does well. And it's still Christmas regardless.

    Certainly agree it's far too early to "call" winter at this point.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I'm sorry but there was no need for yet another winter thread so I've merged it with the main one. We're only 19% through the winter, so it's a bit early to be lamenting what could have been.

    Statistically the coldest part of the winter has yet to come, so patience will win out in the end! ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I'm sorry but there was no need for yet another winter thread so I've merged it with the main one. We're only 19% through the winter, so it's a bit early to be lamenting what could have been.

    Statistically the coldest part of the winter has yet to come, so patience will win out in the end! ;)

    I understand and MT's post above does give a coldie like me some hope! :D

    D


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,603 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Tonights ECM is a a bit of a horror show from start to finish for cold weather fans:(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8 MEAN


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I'm sorry but there was no need for yet another winter thread so I've merged it with the main one. We're only 19% through the winter, so it's a bit early to be lamenting what could have been.

    Statistically the coldest part of the winter has yet to come, so patience will win out in the end! ;)


    winter is nov dec and jan so we are over 50% through this winter sory


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭highdef


    Nope, winter is December to February, from a meteorlogical point of view. Winter is November, December and January going by the pagan calender. For some unknown reason, a lot of people in Ireland still go by the Pagan calender. I have no idea why!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8 MEAN


    highdef wrote: »
    Nope, winter is December to February, from a meteorlogical point of view. Winter is November, December and January going by the pagan calender. For some unknown reason, a lot of people in Ireland still go by the Pagan calender. I have no idea why!

    nope the 1st of spring is 1st of feb


  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    MEAN wrote: »
    nope the 1st of spring is 1st of feb

    nope ;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    In these here parts we use meteorological winter, and all our threads, competitions, etc. refer to this. Other winter forecasts also use Dec-Feb as "Winter".

    So in that regard, we are only in the 17th of 91 winter days.


This discussion has been closed.
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