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M17/M18 - Gort to Tuam [open to traffic]

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Comments

  • #842
    galwayrush
    Registered Users Posts: 12,815 ✭✭✭✭galwayrush


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Question is whether a ( in total) €400m PPP like this is kept 'alive' or a €150m PPP like the N7/N11 project. I suspect I know the answer.

    Roll on the Claregalway Bypass.

    Claregalway Bypass and Galway Outer Bypass... ffs so obviously neeed.


  • #843
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Bonds are at 8.2% now. Crawling downwards...


  • #844
    jenningso
    Registered Users Posts: 131 ✭✭jenningso


    A Claregalway bypass coupled with the removal of the roundabouts in Galway............. a recipe for 5 mile tailbacks into Galway, what a mess! What I mean is that this isn't a problem that can be solved with the Claregalway bypass alone, Galway City needs it's outer bypass badly and maybe then a simple bypass of Claregalway would be a fine solution until Ireland Inc can afford the M17/M18. This is a sad situation we're in, millions have been spend on land aquisition on the M17/18 route already so I suppose there are individuals in the NRA who will want the project to proceed as is. If only they bypassed Claregalway a decade ago.........
    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Question is whether a ( in total) €400m PPP like this is kept 'alive' or a €150m PPP like the N7/N11 project. I suspect I know the answer.

    Roll on the Claregalway Bypass.


  • #845
    Irish and Proud
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭Irish and Proud


    MYOB wrote: »
    Bonds are at 8.2% now. Crawling downwards...

    That's a big drop for one day - the 10 Year Bond Yields for Ireland were hovering at around 8.65% for the last few days - until today.

    Regards!


  • #846
    black47
    Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭black47


    Irish and Proud wrote: »
    That's a big drop for one day - the 10 Year Bond Yields for Ireland were hovering at around 8.65% for the last few days - until today.

    Regards!

    I know someone has posted previously but I can't seem to find it. What % does the bond percentage have to drop to before one of the consortia will bite


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  • #847
    antoobrien
    Registered Users Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭antoobrien


    black47 wrote: »
    I know someone has posted previously but I can't seem to find it. What % does the bond percentage have to drop to before one of the consortia will bite

    It was in another thread, the post is here if you want to read the analysis.

    In short we're not really sure but we think that the 5 & 10 year bonds need to go to somewhere around 5% before they start becoming viable.

    The current yields are:
    5 years - 7.653%
    10 year - 8.174%


  • #848
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I'd say we are 6 months away right now from any PPP being funded. We would need 2 x GNP/GDP quarters in the right direction to engeder confidence and we would need that long to get the 10 year yield down around the 5% I would think.

    It is going in the right direction but it would take very little to derail that rather recent progress. 10 Year may even go below 8.1% today, now at 8.119%

    There are signs of yield inversion which will confuse the message but there are encouraging developments on CDS where we dropped ( from a high level) as others rose, eg France and Germany. Then again CDS is the new short selling and is somewhat meaningless as a measure...even if it does obsess certain people. :)

    But we are nevertheless some time from getting any PPP off and it will likely be the much smaller Newlands PPP and perhaps the school bundle containing the 2 new Doughiska schools rather than Gort -Tuam.


  • #849
    eugyoung
    Registered Users Posts: 7 ✭eugyoung


    Hik Guy just a bit of a finance head its at 7.93 at the moment


  • #850
    Irish and Proud
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭Irish and Proud


    black47 wrote: »
    I know someone has posted previously but I can't seem to find it. What % does the bond percentage have to drop to before one of the consortia will bite

    Around 5% for 10 year bonds I think - AFAIK, this figure is similar to that Ireland enjoyed before the yields increased towards the end of 2010 - this put immense pressure on Ireland to accept the current bailout.

    Regards!


  • #851
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    eugyoung wrote: »
    Hik Guy just a bit of a finance head its at 7.93 at the moment
    It may well be but look at the 1 year, we need de-inversion as well.


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  • #852
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The N11 project can probably go at a higher rate than 5% because of the cash machine commercial element that won't be judged as state debt; 5% for this one seems about right.


  • #853
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    eugyoung wrote: »
    Hik Guy just a bit of a finance head its at 7.93 at the moment

    I think this is the first time it's dropped below 8% in quite a long time. Whether that's significant or not is another discussion entirely. I shan't drag this too off-topic, but an article:

    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-aims-for-2012-bonds-entry-2887833.html


  • #854
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    It is significant as is being decoupled from Club Med. I would not let off a 10 year issue at 7% all the same.


  • #855
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    It is significant as is being decoupled from Club Med. I would not let off a 10 year issue at 7% all the same.

    With reference to your previous post, and providing all of that happens, do you see the realistic possibility of any "larger" PPPs such as the M17/M18 going ahead in the next 3-4 years, say? We know the Newlands/M11 has (or has had) some EIB funding to help it along which is a significant chunk of its overall price, so one would imagine it could just about squeeze through even if it had to be part-funded by the exchequer. But what do you think of the larger projects?


  • #856
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    The N17/N18 is funded by the EIB to the tune of €170m ...much more than the Newlands funding. They are the only 2 road projects with EIB funding requested or indeed in place from the EIB.


  • #857
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    I am aware of that, although the outstanding funding to be made up in the M17/M18 scheme is far more than that which is required for Newlands obviously. Do you have any idea what sort of amounts can be raised on the PPP markets, say, in 6 months time if our bond yield is at 5%?


  • #858
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Nope, save that I would start small with the Schools PPP and Newlands Cross.


  • #859
    antoobrien
    Registered Users Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭antoobrien


    Just came across a historical summary of Irish 10 year bonds. The average 20 year price is 5.75% (including the recent peak @ 14%), with the lowest rate being 3.06%.

    The highest recent rate while we were in the bond market was 5.8% in May 2010. You'd have to go back to 98 before the yields were higher.

    So in short we need to be in or about 6% to be able to borrow again (which is about the initial bailout rate). If we were to star borrowing at that level for important projects (this and NX/M11 come to mind) the prices would probably start to drop as investor confidence returns (lots of ifs buts & maybes).


  • #860
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I see Wells Fargo bank agree with my estimation.

    https://www.wellsfargo.com/downloads/pdf/com/research/international/Ireland_09272011.pdf
    However, government bond yields in Ireland have declined significantly over the past two months or so with the yield on the 10-year government security down about 550 bps. Ireland may be slowly “de-coupling” from the rest of the European periphery.

    We still need to wait 6 months and 2 x Q on Q GDP + GNP increases though. One quarter does not a recovery make.


  • #861
    mayo23
    Registered Users Posts: 22 ✭mayo23


    Just a mad thought: what if everyone in ireland chipped in €3 a month for a year? That would give (4.5 million) x (3) x (12) = €162 million :rolleyes:

    I know its ludicrous and I'm not at all suggesting it should be done. Just food for thought is all :D


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  • #862
    galwayrush
    Registered Users Posts: 12,815 ✭✭✭✭galwayrush


    mayo23 wrote: »
    Just a mad thought: what if everyone in ireland chipped in €3 a month for a year? That would give (4.5 million) x (3) x (12) = €162 million :rolleyes:

    I know its ludicrous and I'm not at all suggesting it should be done. Just food for thought is all :D

    Great idea except in this country, the administration would eat up at least 90% of all money collected.


  • #863
    spacetweek
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,944 Mod ✭✭✭✭spacetweek


    A lot of good news on this thread, guys. Nice to hear for a change.
    Spongey, you're uncharacteristically optimistic. A return to PPPs next year is actually better than many of us would have been hoping for. It still won't be until 2013 that we balance our budget, for example.
    mayo23 wrote: »
    Just a mad thought: what if everyone in ireland chipped in €3 a month for a year? That would give (4.5 million) x (3) x (12) = €162 million :rolleyes:
    This is also known as taxation :)


  • #864
    BluntGuy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    spacetweek wrote: »
    This is also known as taxation :)

    We need some form of proper local taxation in this country for sure.


  • #865
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    7.6% now.


  • #866
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    7.5%


  • #867
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    spacetweek wrote: »
    Spongey, you're uncharacteristically optimistic. A return to PPPs next year is actually better than many of us would have been hoping for.
    It won't be the M17/M18 PPP next year. I said I reckon they will poke the market with Schools Bundle 3 (allegedly all sorted by tomorrow say the Dept of Finance in that link :D ) and Newlands/N11 first and that will be for strategic reasons to do with managing returning market confidence as much as anything else.

    The M17/M18 looks like a 2014 or 2015 deal earliest.

    If we get a negative quarter in terms of GDP or GNP in the next 6 months all bets are off of course.


  • #868
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    I am waiting for "do motorways deliver" thread, since we all should be cycling between tuam and galway :D


  • #869
    dubhthach
    Registered Users Posts: 3,284 ✭✭✭dubhthach


    BluntGuy wrote: »
    We need some form of proper local taxation in this country for sure.

    Well in most of the world this is covered by Property tax. Something we don't have in this country. Of course as an example in Seattle they voted to increase sales tax by 1% (within city limits) to fund the construction of light rail system to SEATAC airport.


  • #870
    LFC Murphy
    Registered Users Posts: 825 ✭✭✭LFC Murphy


    Just giving this thread a bump to keep focus on it. I check it daily and get very disheartened when it gets left in the shadows


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  • #871
    galwayrush
    Registered Users Posts: 12,815 ✭✭✭✭galwayrush


    LFC Murphy wrote: »
    Just giving this thread a bump to keep focus on it. I check it daily and get very disheartened when it gets left in the shadows

    Forget about for many years to come, we haven't even got to a 'save the rare very common bog cotton or other such 'issues' stage yet.


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