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Why do Sinn Féin consistently top online polls?

  • 11-01-2013 12:57pm
    #1
    Debator
    Site Banned Posts: 95 ✭✭


    I was browsing politics.ie which is currently hosting an online poll "If there were to be a General Election tomorrow which political party would you vote for?"

    Naturally SF is way ahead in the lead. I have noticed this pattern across almost every online political poll on boards.ie, politics.ie, irishtimes etc. But we all know that these results don't translate into reality. SF are a lunatic fringe party with past terrorism links, with a measly 14 seats in the Dáil (compared to FG's 73, Labour's 33 and even the Independents are more popular than them with 21 seats). This raises several questions:

    (1) Are websites, such as boards.ie, infested with sleeper cells of SF supporters (or Shinnerbots as they're sometimes referred to) aiming to contaminate young impressionable minds with their propaganda?

    (2) If this is the case, why do SF supporters bother hi-jacking these online polls? They have no influence and are a meaningless victory.

    (3) How can we stop the influx of shill accounts?

    Below is the current politics.ie poll
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    Tagged:


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Comments

  • #2
    Chips Lovell
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,264 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    I don't believe that Sinn Fein have an army of shills and bots. I just think its a case that Sinn Fein's demographic is more likely to be active users of online discussion forums and that they're more attached to arguing their position, thus increasing their visibility.


  • #3
    maccored
    Registered Users Posts: 10,657 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    i think its because many people deep down realise SF raise valid points, but then come election time, havent the bollocks to vote for them. People dont really like change in reality - prefer the status quo, no matter how crap it is.


  • #4
    Bogger77
    Registered Users Posts: 1,857 ✭✭✭Bogger77


    vote early, vote often, vote sinn fein.


  • #5
    nuac
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,769 Mod ✭✭✭✭nuac


    SF do come in some numbers to many online polls. I have heard of text messages etc been sent around by them

    Re the current poll on politics.ie I see that there is a number of total who have voted for each party in the column before the percentages.

    By clicking on this ( if you subscribe ) you can get the noms de guerre of each poster has voted.

    Anybody interested can look up each poster's posting record. If a number of voters for any party haven't posted for some time before voting, conclusions can be drawn


  • #6
    Owryan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,024 ✭✭✭Owryan


    From my own limited knowledge most of those I know who support SF are in their teens and happily share all the latest 'ra/SF pictures on fb because its the thing to do. Yet most of them are too young to vote.

    My younger brother is a prime example , just turned 20, he and all his friends seem to have swallowed the SF spiel yet none ever bother to vote.

    In Carlow the SF machine is putting all its effort into targetting the younger generations. If they do get them to vote then......... shudder


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  • #7
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,445 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I think a large thing as well is that a lot of people on politics ie are actually living in Northern Ireland which has got a huge SF vote. These polls aren't restricted to people living in the south only.


  • #8
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Interestingly, the Boards poll in the run-up to the election in 2011 was quite different:

    Position|Party|Votes|Support
    1. |Fine Gael |6,576 |30.6%
    2. |Labour |4,832 |22.5%
    3. |Independent |3,738 |17.4%
    4. |Sinn Féin |2,534 |11.8%
    5. |Fianna Fáil |1,762 |8.2%
    6. |Green Party |1,036 |4.8%
    7. |Socialist Party |466 |2.2%
    8. |People Before Profit |366 |1.7%
    9. |Workers' Party |80 |0.4%
    10. |Workers and Unemployed Action Group |56 |0.3%
    11. |South Kerry Independent Alliance |40 |0.2%
    12. |Christian Solidarity Party |16 |0.1%

    That's based purely on Boards voters, and it looks very similar to the national results - a poll in the Politics forum might give a stronger SF showing, although a poll in 2009 on the forum didn't:

    Party|Votes|Support
    Fianna Fáil |37 |6.49%
    Fine Gael |172 |30.18%
    Sinn Féin |70 |12.28%
    The Labour Party |161 |28.25%
    The Green Party |27 |4.74%
    Libertas |17 |2.98%
    Independent |29 |5.09%
    Cannot Vote |10 |1.75%
    Wouldn't Vote |19 |3.33%
    Workers/Socialist/Hard Left |28 |4.91%

    Not sure why we're more balanced, bar the absence of FF voters - I'd certainly agree that places like politics.ie, journal.ie etc show much higher SF support than we do. Here's the current Journal poll, for example:

    Party|Votes|Support
    Fianna Fáil|1829|22.82%
    Sinn Fein|1748|21.81%
    Labour|1284|16.02%
    Fine Gael|985|12.29%
    Independent|976|12.18%
    Green Party|801|9.99%
    Socialist Party|393|4.90%

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • #9
    Technoprisoner
    Registered Users Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭Technoprisoner


    did it ever dawn on you that the polls might be telling the truth. that the ordinary people of ireland have had enough of what fine gael/labour/finna fail have to offer. personally im sick of it and will be voting sinn fein. i can see labour losing at least 5 seats in the next election and fine gael rpobably about the same. Those seats have to go somewhere dont they


  • #10
    gaffer91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,082 ✭✭✭gaffer91


    Support for SF can mainly be explained by the youthful demographics of the website, and the internet in general I would say. Many SF supporters on here are probably young chaps who still think that supporting the 'RA is the mark of a hard man and don't realise how utterly futile an ideology like nationalism is.

    Regarding "shinnerbots" this is probably untrue, but I do admit to getting a good laugh from time to time at the naive SF propaganda that some of the shinners on here spout. While I obviously can't name them for fear of getting into ad hominem territory, some of the posters on here are so indoctrinated with SF's fusion of far left ideology and extreme nationalism that it's quite pitiful. They'll grow out of it hopefully.


  • #11
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Technoprisoner wrote: »
    did it ever dawn on you that the polls might be telling the truth. that the ordinary people of ireland have had enough of what fine gael/labour/finna fail have to offer. personally im sick of it and will be voting sinn fein. i can see labour losing at least 5 seats in the next election and fine gael rpobably about the same. Those seats have to go somewhere dont they

    Well, no, because the point about these online polls is that they don't reflect public opinion. Online polls are self-selecting (people choose to be in them) out of small audiences with particular interests (politics.ie, boards.ie. journal.ie), and do not represent the Irish public at large, although Boards probably comes closest through sheer scale.

    As such, the prevalence of SF or any other party in such polls is completely meaningless except as a guide to the readership of a particular website. It should not be mistaken for real life - although that mistake may be part of the explanation of the effect.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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  • #12
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    Technoprisoner wrote: »
    did it ever dawn on you that the polls might be telling the truth. that the ordinary people of ireland have had enough of what fine gael/labour/finna fail have to offer. personally im sick of it and will be voting sinn fein. i can see labour losing at least 5 seats in the next election and fine gael rpobably about the same. Those seats have to go somewhere dont they

    I think their popularity simply reflects a viewpoint similar to yours which is a protest view. You don't say you want to vote for their policies, simply just because they are opposing the government.


  • #13
    pablomakaveli
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,752 ✭✭✭pablomakaveli


    Its clear Sinn Fein are often over represented online polls. Its never backed up in elections which is the real indicator.

    With online polls we could have people from NI voting where Sinn Fein are more popular due to the tribal nature of politics and people under the age of 18 with which Sinn Fein would be more popular. (I can testify to that with me and a lot of my friends being very pro-republican when we were teenagers). So the online polls arent really worth considering.


  • #14
    Debator
    Site Banned Posts: 95 ✭✭Debator


    Bogger77 wrote: »
    vote early, vote often, vote sinn fein.

    This is precisely the propaganda pushing I'm referring to from SF shills. If you want to debate policy, fair enough. But spouting meaningless slogans like a robot is pointless. You're hardly going to convert anyone.


  • #15
    FTA69
    Registered Users Posts: 9,252 ✭✭✭FTA69


    Debator wrote: »
    (1) Are websites, such as boards.ie, infested with sleeper cells of SF supporters (or Shinnerbots as they're sometimes referred to) aiming to contaminate young impressionable minds with their propaganda?

    That's 100% true in my opinion. I've heard that Sinn Féin actively have an IT department that pays large amount of boards infiltrators from the proceeds of the Northern Bank Robbery. I mean it's a great political strategy when you think about it, having recreational arguments on the internet brought many a party to power.


  • #16
    Chips Lovell
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,264 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    Debator wrote: »
    This is precisely the propaganda pushing I'm referring to from SF shills. If you want to debate policy, fair enough. But spouting meaningless slogans like a robot is pointless. You're hardly going to convert anyone.

    I'd say Bogger's tongue was firmly in his cheek.


  • #17
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users Posts: 14,986 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    OP
    Online polls are unscientific.
    People can vote multiple times and they do not take into account demographics like age, location etc.

    Polls by Red C etc are scientific, they use a defined sample size, poll in all constituencies and people only answer the questions once..

    That's the answer to your question


  • #18
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,458 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »
    I don't believe that Sinn Fein have an army of shills and bots. I just think its a case that Sinn Fein's demographic is more likely to be active users of online discussion forums and that they're more attached to arguing their position, thus increasing their visibility.

    There is evidence to suggest that they do have a network of users collaborating together with the aim of promoting the SF point of view alongside inflating the level of SF support when it comes to online polls and so forth. I also believe that their Facebook page is being artificially supported with 'likes' - something which other 'experts' in regards social media also suspect.

    It has become quite noticeable ever since they employed someone full-time with the sole role of promoting the party in the online arena. SF are probably ahead of the curve here, and other parties are still playing catch up.

    I think the policy is misguided somewhat in anycase. Firstly, people can see through it and secondly - nothing beats knocking on doors.

    gaffer91 wrote: »
    Support for SF can mainly be explained by the youthful demographics of the website, and the internet in general I would say.

    That undoubtedly goes some way in explaining it, however there has to be more to it than that in my view. There is this myth that SF captures the majority of the 'youth vote'. However it is just that, i.e. a myth. The fact of the matter is that recent RedC polling, which is scientific, has shown that FG, FF & SF are effectively split when it comes to voter support amongst the 18 - 34 age bracket. Indeed in recent times FF have outperformed SF when it comes to support amongst younger voters.

    So if that is the case, why aren't FF or FG proportionately represented in these online polls?


  • #19
    gaffer91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,082 ✭✭✭gaffer91


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    That undoubtedly goes some way in explaining it, however there has to be more to it than that in my view. There is this myth that SF captures the majority of the 'youth vote'. However it is just that, i.e. a myth. The fact of the matter is that recent RedC polling, which is scientific, has shown that FG, FF & SF are effectively split when it comes to voter support amongst the 18 - 34 age bracket. Indeed in recent times FF have outperformed SF when it comes to support amongst younger voters.

    So if that is the case, why aren't FF or FG proportionately represented in these online polls?

    That's a good point actually and one I can't really offer an explanation for on the most part.

    Regarding FF being under-represented I would say that this is probably because it is popular for people online to try and see who can hate FF the most. While there was a massive justification for it during the last government, and possibly still is to a certain extent because the scale of the FF's mistakes were so large, it is not really conducive to a good debate for FFers. I'd guess that most FFers online probably simply give up posting on political forums, rather than try and make headway with the vitriol from posters like raymon and Liam Byrne before him, who just detest FF and will never change their views.

    On a side note, having said all that I'm not actually a FFer myself and were there an election in the morning I wouldn't vote for them- but it's equally true that there are certain (admittedly pretty unlikely) circumstances in which I would, so I don't hate them as much as most posters on this forum and others seem to.


  • #20
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    There is evidence to suggest that they do have a network of users collaborating together with the aim of promoting the SF point of view alongside inflating the level of SF support when it comes to online polls and so forth. I also believe that their Facebook page is being artificially supported with 'likes' - something which other 'experts' in regards social media also suspect.

    It has become quite noticeable ever since they employed someone full-time with the sole role of promoting the party in the online arena. SF are probably ahead of the curve here, and other parties are still playing catch up.

    I think the policy is misguided somewhat in anycase. Firstly, people can see through it and secondly - nothing beats knocking on doors.




    That undoubtedly goes some way in explaining it, however there has to be more to it than that in my view. There is this myth that SF captures the majority of the 'youth vote'. However it is just that, i.e. a myth. The fact of the matter is that recent RedC polling, which is scientific, has shown that FG, FF & SF are effectively split when it comes to voter support amongst the 18 - 34 age bracket. Indeed in recent times FF have outperformed SF when it comes to support amongst younger voters.

    So if that is the case, why aren't FF or FG proportionately represented in these online polls?

    I think the reasons behind it are, in a sense, SF-specific, and relate to their rather more recent association with armed struggle compared with other parties. Demonstrating 'popular support' is a standard tactic in unconventional warfare, where ideological and moral support is not guaranteed in the same way as nationalistic support in conventional warfare. It's vital for armed struggle groups to show that their support is strong to encourage their combatants, who rarely have the support structures available to regular combatants, to encourage their own supporters, to strengthen their hand at the negotiating table, to emphasise the legitimacy of their cause, and to demonstrate the legitimacy of support for them.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • #21
    blahfckingblah
    Registered Users Posts: 1,666 ✭✭✭blahfckingblah


    Debator wrote: »
    This is precisely the propaganda pushing I'm referring to from SF shills. If you want to debate policy, fair enough. But spouting meaningless slogans like a robot is pointless. You're hardly going to convert anyone.
    its always easy to spot the people who really focus on hating sinn fein..


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  • #22
    maccored
    Registered Users Posts: 10,657 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    It's vital for armed struggle groups to show that their support is strong to encourage their combatants, who rarely have the support structures available to regular combatants, to encourage their own supporters, to strengthen their hand at the negotiating table, to emphasise the legitimacy of their cause, and to demonstrate the legitimacy of support for them.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    Sinn Fein are in an armed struggle? No -actually sorry - my bad. Misread, as its linked to the first paragraph

    I do disagree though. Well, as a Sinn Fein member I'd hoped someone would have let me in on the great online conspiracy.


  • #23
    LordSutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    Certainly on boards.ie polls SF always seem to be close to (or ahead) of the real leaders, the last general election springs to mind when there were twelve SF threads running simultaneously spanning three or four forums (Fine Gael only had two or three threads about them at the time) I even posted comments at the time questioning just why so many SF threads were popping up so often, and with so many new SF posters too! Same applies to the recent Presidential election when Martin McGuinness got massive support on online polls in various threads, and then, even when he came third (with less than half the number votes of Sean Gallagher), many still insisted that it was a close call for good old Marty :cool:

    Sinn Fein and their followers/fellow travellers are masters of media spin, so I would always expect them to come 1st in most online polls, ar at least to come a close 2nd. Reality of course is a different thing, but I'm sure that the psychology of them being seen to win so many online polls reaps rewards (real votes) for them among the younger more impressionable generation . . . .


  • #24
    GRMA
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,417 ✭✭✭GRMA


    I used to be a member of SF


    I was never asked to vote or anything online or to ask others to do so (I was secretary for a number of things in my area and would as such been responsible for sending out emails, texts etc). If you send out messages too regularly and about things people wouldn't care about (online polls being a prime example, what a big hassle that would be, you'd have lots of older members who arent tech savvy asking what the hell politics.ie is, how to sign up etc) you'd piss people off and they would stop reading them. I also ran a few social media things, facebook pages etc. I can only laugh at suggestions that people artificially bumped up "like" numbers. What a waste of time. Who honestly cares about the number of "likes" something has? The purpose of the pages is to share information, easily tie in supporters and members and to help keep various party structures around the country in touch, they aren't a dick measuring contest

    What would be the point? As fun as it is to wind anti republicans up who check under the bed for provos every night, valuable time is better spent doing leaflet drops, organizing events, knocking on doors etc.

    The answer re online polls is simply that SF have a lot of young supporters and members who are tech savvy whereas other political parties would have a much older membership. Support was/is also growing rapidly. As I said I used to be a member so I'm out of touch with things on the ground these days a bit.

    SF members are also part of what they would call the republican movement - its more than just a party so you have increased levels of motivation and enthusiasm as a result. You have a lot of young members who's family members may have been killed, jailed etc for being involved so things are generally taken quite seriously. Being a republican isnt something you do once a week at a cumann meeting and forget about when you go home.

    I always discouraged people from debating politics online (unless its something they really like to do)and especially on politics.ie. Its pretty much a waste of time.. People who talk politics online generally already have their minds made up and discussions are a series of attempts at oneupmanship (certainly here and p.ie, there are one or two sites which are different and mutually beneficial discussion takes place). Even people who claim to be "independent" have their minds made up. They are the "everybody is wrong but me/I wish a party existed that I agreed with" crowd. By engaging in debate you are not going to win over new supporters or members. "Ordinary" people, the kind of people you want to join, don't read these sites, or at least not in any real worthwhile numbers. Time is better spent elsewhere.

    I encouraged people to instead have a blog or write articles and submit them to be published on various party instruments, internal or otherwise.

    That in mind why would I have encouraged people to post on sites, or to rig polls? It's pointless.

    You also get a serious amount of abuse from some quarters for republican views so a lot of people if they see a poll vote in it, but dont waste their time actually debating it.

    Bit of a long rambling post, but to conclude, OP, there is no plot or plan to get SF members to spam things or whatever, so calm down.


  • #25
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    maccored wrote: »
    Sinn Fein are in an armed struggle? No -actually sorry - my bad. Misread, as its linked to the first paragraph

    I do disagree though. Well, as a Sinn Fein member I'd hoped someone would have let me in on the great online conspiracy.

    My bad - the way I put that suggested an SF social media war-room directing people to online polls and so on, which wasn't really what I was talking about (although it's true for the Israeli hawks).

    All of the things I mentioned are essentially reflexes which I'd see as motivating individual members, and quite possibly groups of friends/acquaintances who would might well call each other onto polls and comment threads. It's organic rather than orchestrated, but it's driven by the same sense of being involved in something more existential than mere party politics that drives Israeli hawks.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    [EDIT]I think GRMA has covered a fair bit of this in his post. Sorry - had the reply page loaded for a while![/EDIT]


  • #26
    newmug
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,571 ✭✭✭newmug


    I'm always amused by posters who think Boards reflects real, average Irish people. It doesn't. I'm not just talking about political views, I mean any subject, any topic, in any forum on Boards. Boards seems to be mostly populated by middle class Dubliners, most of whom are completely unaware that they lead priveleged lives, and that they would be in the minority on most issues discussed here on Boards were the same discussions to be had in a pub in Westmeath or Clare. One fella on AH yesterday had an epiphany moment when he realised some people grow their own vegtables:rolleyes:. Keeping with the pub theme, Boards is about as reflective of a genuine Irish pub as those tourist yipe-and-begorrah type places you find in every major world city.

    Boards is skewed, it is not the national thermometer for ordinary Irish peoples views or opinions.


  • #27
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    newmug wrote: »
    I'm always amused by posters who think Boards reflects real, average Irish people. It doesn't. I'm not just talking about political views, I mean any subject, any topic, in any forum on Boards. Boards seems to be mostly populated by middle class Dubliners, most of whom are completely unaware that they lead priveleged lives, and that they would be in the minority on most issues discussed here on Boards were the same discussions to be had in a pub in Westmeath or Clare. One fella on AH yesterday had an epiphany moment when he realised some people grow their own vegtables:rolleyes:. Keeping with the pub theme, Boards is about as reflective of a genuine Irish pub as those tourist yipe-and-begorrah type places you find in every major world city.

    Boards is skewed, it is not the national thermometer for ordinary Irish peoples views or opinions.

    Shrug - it remains more representative of the country than any other part of the Irish internet. The general election Boards poll was very close to the real result, and the levels of voting reached up to something like 3-4 in 1000 of the electorate in some constituencies.

    After all, a very large proportion of the people in Ireland are middle-class urbanites.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • #28
    newmug
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,571 ✭✭✭newmug


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    Shrug - it remains more representative of the country than any other part of the Irish internet. The general election Boards poll was very close to the real result, and the levels of voting reached up to something like 3-4 in 1000 of the electorate in some constituencies.

    After all, a very large proportion of the people in Ireland are middle-class urbanites.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


    I'd say its about 70/30 average, non-internet using rural Irishpeople versus middle class urbanite Irishpeople. That still gives a skewed result.


  • #29
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    newmug wrote: »
    I'd say its about 70/30 average, non-internet using rural Irishpeople versus middle class urbanite Irishpeople. That still gives a skewed result.

    ABC1 is 40% of the population, and if you included C2 - skilled manual and manual with responsibility for other people, who in Ireland are hardly classic working class - then you're looking at 63% of the population. Roughly the same figure - 62% - for urbanisation, and I'm not sure the urbanisation figures include the displaced urbanites in the 'commuter counties' around Dublin.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • #30
    Nodin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 46,938 ✭✭✭✭Nodin


    LordSutch wrote: »
    Certainly on boards.ie polls SF always seem to be close to (or ahead) of the real leaders, the last general election springs to mind when there were twelve SF threads running simultaneously spanning three or four forums (Fine Gael only had two or three threads about them at the time) I even posted comments at the time questioning just why so many SF threads were popping up so often, and with so many new SF posters too!.

    And I answered your post, if I recall, by by pointing out that many of those threads were started with an anti-Sinn Fein theme by posters who were clearly not pro-Sinn Fein.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=71469550&postcount=93


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  • #31
    LordSutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    Nodin wrote: »
    And I answered your post, if I recall, by by pointing out that many of those threads were started with an anti-Sinn Fein theme by posters who were clearly not pro-Sinn Fein.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=71469550&postcount=93

    Good memory there N, but what I am saying in this thread (post#23) is that boards.ie was up to its armpits at one stage with SF threads just prior to the last election. I don't know who started them, Pro SF or Anti SF, but they were popping up at an alarmimg rate pre the last election, and the election before that, if you looked into boards.ie it was wall to wall Sinn Fein threads in after hours & Politics, which begs the question "Why the disproportionate rate of SF threads/posts" if they are/were only the 4th largest party in the State.

    Pro SF threads/ Anti SF threads, they all keep SF in the limelight, which obviously hasn't done them any harm in online polls.


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