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The Fiscal Treaty Yes or No

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,285 ✭✭✭tfitzgerald


    I am going to vote NO!


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 9,081 Mod ✭✭✭✭ziedth


    Sully wrote: »
    I'm using students as an example, as its a big example and the age group of people leaving the country in the majority. A lot of the people I personally know are graduated a few years, or didn't go to college, and are leaving for a better lifestyle and in some cases giving up jobs.

    Sully it's obvious to me you are ALLOT more clued into the political side of things and Ireland's Macroeconomic environment but you are delusional if you think people are immigrating as a lifestyle choice.

    If we go back five/six years I would hazzard a guess that most of us would only know a couple of people who left the country to work( I'm not counting traveling as I'd call that's extended holiday) while now I could easily pick 10 people who I would call friends over the years and at least twice that of local girls and guys from out my way that had no work and had to move.

    you can't seriously believe that if there was work available that these people would have still left the country?


  • Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭letsbet


    Fair enough. Wonder what the sample size was because any economic report that I've read will cite economic reasons as the main driver of the increase (which is not measured in the above report). Also, it'd be nice to see what jobs the people were working at before they left. It says that 75% said they were in better jobs so it'd nice to know how many people with say masters qualifications were working in bars and got higher paid jobs abroad.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 9,081 Mod ✭✭✭✭ziedth


    letsbet wrote: »
    . It says that 75% said they were in better jobs so it'd nice to know how many people with say masters qualifications were working in bars and got higher paid jobs abroad.

    TBF this is a very good point


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,228 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Sully wrote: »
    I'm using students as an example, as its a big example and the age group of people leaving the country in the majority. A lot of the people I personally know are graduated a few years, or didn't go to college, and are leaving for a better lifestyle and in some cases giving up jobs.
    In real life, Sully, are you Mary Coughlan? :)

    Regards...jmcc


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,759 ✭✭✭✭dlofnep


    I'll be voting no - there is absolutely no benefit to this treaty to the state. It continues to erode our national sovereignty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,471 ✭✭✭blue note


    dlofnep wrote: »
    I'll be voting no - there is absolutely no benefit to this treaty to the state. It continues to erode our national sovereignty.

    What about the benefit of having access to funds to continue to meet our expenditure? How would you solve that problem?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭lightspeed


    If we were to vote no and we did not have the funds, how would the promissory notes and continued bailout money get paid back? Would we not just default and then send the euro crashing into a brick wall?
    What logical reason is there to believe that Angela Merkel and the powers that be would allow that to happen in comparison to just grinding their teeth and giving Ireland another bail out if needed. Another thing, Given how close we are now to china, If we were that badly on the brink of poverty, could and would the chinese not lend some of their money. What about the internet? Cant we just get some of that internet money[


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 28,439 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cabaal


    Finnbar01 wrote: »
    The Eurozone is flawed and is a contradiction in and of itself, that's why it will collapse.

    Interesting?
    I what do you suggest will replace it, do you think the systems in place in the likes of America or China or perhaps even Russia are better? Please do tell.
    Incidentally both yourself and sully are scaremonegring. This country has been through the rough and tough before and we got thru it.

    I'm not scaremongering, I'm being realistic, you suggest the failure of the EU like some anarchists wet dream with no accounting for the actual massive and prolonged negative affects it would have on Ireland and for the people of Europe as a whole.

    You suggest that Ireland could survive harsh cuts with obsoletely no accounting for the actual reality of people living day to day and employment in this country,

    In short, you dismiss the systems, agreements and governments in place and say they will fail and Ireland will get by but you haven't suggested an alternative and you have not taken into account the massive negative and life changing implications of the failures and changes you want to happen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,228 ✭✭✭jmcc


    If we vote 'No' does that mean that politicians will have their salaries cut and will former politicians have their pensions cut?

    Regards...jmcc


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭lightspeed


    Cabaal wrote: »
    Interesting?
    I what do you suggest will replace it, do you think the systems in place in the likes of America or China or perhaps even Russia are better? Please do tell.



    I'm not scaremongering, I'm being realistic, you suggest the failure of the EU like some anarchists wet dream with no accounting for the actual massive and prolonged negative affects it would have on Ireland and for the people of Europe as a whole.

    You suggest that Ireland could survive harsh cuts with obsoletely no accounting for the actual reality of people living day to day and employment in this country,

    In short, you dismiss the systems, agreements and governments in place and say they will fail and Ireland will get by but you haven't suggested an alternative and you have not taken into account the massive negative and life changing implications of the failures and changes you want to happen.

    Borrrow money from china = Alternative?


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 28,439 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cabaal


    lightspeed wrote: »
    Borrrow money from china = Alternative?

    How is this any different to borrowing money from Europe and the IMF, instead of loosing stuff to Europe we'd loose stuff to China.

    China aren't going to do stuff for us just because they are nice, they are going to want stuff in return.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,063 ✭✭✭Finnbar01


    Cabaal wrote: »
    Interesting?
    I what do you suggest will replace it, do you think the systems in place in the likes of America or China or perhaps even Russia are better? Please do tell.

    We default and go back to our own currency. We also keep the trade agreements in place. The EU should be about trade not political and fiscal union.
    I'm not scaremongering, I'm being realistic, you suggest the failure of the EU like some anarchists wet dream with no accounting for the actual massive and prolonged negative affects it would have on Ireland and for the people of Europe as a whole.

    So I'm an anarchist now? Well at least that beats being called a racist and xenophobe when I tried to explain to people years ago about the dangers of joining the eurozone. There's a very good chance that the EU will collapse and I played no act, hand or part in it.
    You suggest that Ireland could survive harsh cuts with obsoletely no accounting for the actual reality of people living day to day and employment in this country,

    There's plenty of room for cuts without creating massive hardship. We have quangos that need culling and social welfare entitlements that need chopping.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭merlante


    Seems to be there are two future Irelands:

    A. Ireland inside the Euro, transiting from Troika programmes to fiscally consolidated united states of Europe over the next 15 years. Ireland will be compensated for the loss of its sovereignty and off-shore tax regime by EU structural funds, as business migrates to the core.

    B. Ireland leaves the Euro, pegs against the Euro or Sterling at a particular rate, and bears the slings and arrows of current risk. It provides medium term euro-punt rates to FDI and allows companies to do business in Euro. Irish deficit, debt and unemployment are reduced within 3-5 years as currency is allowed to devalue and the positive balance of trade widens. Ireland is out of favour in Europe but can pursue dynamic economic and foreign policies, ala Denmark, Switzerland, etc. Strong & savvy leadership required. Greater risks and rewards.

    This is the only real debate behind all of the other fake debates about "yes for jobs" or "no and the sky falls in" or "no to end/increase austerity". Even the abortion debate is more to the point than the ridiculous "crap treaty but no choice -> reluctant yes" debate we currently have (since A will lead to legalised abortion on a shorter timescale).

    Needless to say that we won't get the one and only debate that matters because most political parties are more pro-Europe than voters generally are, or more to the point, are eager to run back to the teat of one large power or other. As McWilliam's says, our elite have been allowed into the European "good room", with the tin of USA biscuits (just for visitors), and they'll be damned if they'll give their new sophisticated friends the finger. (It's a pity our political class were not a generation younger.)

    To my mind, if you are in favour of option A, you keeping voting yes (it's always 'yes') to all of these treaties until they stop offering the franchise; and if you're in favour of B, you keep voting no. That's the crux of it. These treaties cannot be viewed in isolation, they're part of a teleology towards a utopian future Europe. I think whether you go along with it or not is a matter of personal philosophy.


  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 24,056 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sully


    Finnbar01 wrote: »
    The Eurozone is flawed and is a contradiction in and of itself, that's why it will collapse.

    Incidentally both yourself and sully are scaremonegring. This country has been through the rough and tough before and we got thru it.

    Me? scaremongering? You stated twice that the EU was corrupt because their accounts were never audited. You were wrong. I'd put that down as scaremongering tbh. When you say "Eurozone" do you mean the European Union or the actual Eurozone itself? Either way, the Eurozone survived despite people reporting that it was about to collapse and Europ itself seems to be pulling through this mess despite people saying it was also on the brink.

    Those within the EU see the advantages and wont walk away that easily. Look at the UK - they were muttering about a referendum on it but it didn't go through.
    ziedth wrote: »
    Sully it's obvious to me you are ALLOT more clued into the political side of things and Ireland's Macroeconomic environment but you are delusional if you think people are immigrating as a lifestyle choice.

    If we go back five/six years I would hazzard a guess that most of us would only know a couple of people who left the country to work( I'm not counting traveling as I'd call that's extended holiday) while now I could easily pick 10 people who I would call friends over the years and at least twice that of local girls and guys from out my way that had no work and had to move.

    you can't seriously believe that if there was work available that these people would have still left the country?

    I'm convinced its a mix of both, with a little more leaning towards leaving for a different lifestyle that just lack of jobs / economy. Its just what I have noticed in the current recession. I'm not saying for one second that its all one side. Its a controversial opinion but it seems to be reflected in that Irish Times poll.


  • Registered Users Posts: 511 ✭✭✭Smiley Burnett


    I'm voting no because that will mean no more spending cuts and no more tax increases!!! Isn't that right??? After all, that's what the shinners and the lefties are telling us!! Vote no to austerity and it will all be fine and dandy!!
    P.s. can anyone define what austerity actually is???


  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭insight_man


    I'm voting no because that will mean no more spending cuts and no more tax increases!!! Isn't that right??? After all, that's what the shinners and the lefties are telling us!! Vote no to austerity and it will all be fine and dandy!!
    P.s. can anyone define what austerity actually is???

    Didn't look it up in the dictionary but paying €11.13 Billion for membership of the ESM probably fits the bill. That along with the interest payable on the €11.13 Billion could certainly be described as austerity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭insight_man


    blue note wrote: »
    What about the benefit of having access to funds to continue to meet our expenditure? How would you solve that problem?

    Funding will be available there is no doubt about that. Certainly you'll hear the scary stories that we won't have money to pay social welfare, nurses, teachers etc. How many times have we heard that line from the FG/Lab government. The same people who said a yes vote to lisbon would bring jobs, investment, security, keep our young people at home etc. remember all that? The same people who are now cutting wages, social welfare, nurses, doctors, guards, education and special needs budgets, just like the previous government.

    The euro will NOT be allowed to fail because Ireland 'owes' billions to German, French and other banks and they all want their money back, plus an unravelling of the euro is disastrous for those very same countries. All All economists and bankers have said this already over the last few years.

    So we will have availability of money, especially as we have passed every exaamination of our finances by the trioka since we went into the current programme. As a result our government has been telling us that our reputation is being restored and that we won't even need a second loan anyway, so the issue is unlikly to arise in the first place.

    However if we vote yes to the austerity treaty the certainity that a number of very important and crippling things will happen to Ireland because its part of the treaty:

    We must pay €11.13 billion into the ESM fund, as our contribution, a very expensive 'insurance' policy

    We must also reduce our debt to GDP ratio beyond the current 3% target (which is currently crippling the country) to 0.5%. If we can't reach 3% how do you think we reach 0.5%? Just imagine the cuts needed and the social chaos that will entail.

    Lastly we must comply immeadiatly with the 60% rule. This means we must lower our debt to 60% of our GDP. That gap is estimated to be (almost exactly) €100 Billion by all leading economists. This gap must be reduced at a rate of 5% over 20 years (know as the 1/20 rule). This means FUTHER cuts of €5 Billion per year on top of all the other cuts ie: (5b x 20 = €100 billion) -Ireland cannot now nor ever will be able for such harsh measures.

    Finally, if we fail to make these 'adjustments' the European Court will fine us €120 million per year, as a slap on the hand. So that really helps us out of our troubles.

    Hope this clarifies the real hard issues for you and the real questions you must ask yourself, ie how much money this is really going to cost us and can we afford it. Ireland simply cannot survive these measures without destroying any semblence of a caring society. Without leaving total destruction behind.

    The measures outlined above will be EU law and will be enforced by the European Court and the unelected commissioners, so there is no 'pulling out' afterwards. We can just about pull back from the abyss at this stage, before the vote, but if we vote yes what has happened here already will be the proverbial walk in the park. Yes or no...you decide.


  • Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭IRISHREDSTAR


    I'm voting No why should we all suffer so politicians and government quangos can pay themselves huge money make them do what they said in the last election by voting no


  • Registered Users Posts: 852 ✭✭✭CrackisWhack


    Im voting No for jobs


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,510 ✭✭✭Max Powers


    Im voting No for jobs


    The level of ignorance on here is staggering. First off we should all take a look at what went on in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria now to see what people will go thru to have the right to vote. In that light, voting should not be taken lightly, you should educate yourself on what it is about (not from the tabloids) and make a balanced decision based on what you think is best for the country.
    • Its not about 'sending a message' to politicans as that mesasge will not be heard and they will continue with their massive salarys and benefits while the rest of the country suffers.
    • It is not an austerity treaty
    • Voting yes or no will not magically create jobs
    To add my 2 cents to what i see The fiscal compact about is: we will only be able to spend approximately what we take in or a percentage over that. Whether you think that type of basic budgeting (which we all generally live by) is a good or bad thing for this country is up to you.

    Somebody mentioned China for a loan of money, that money would be dependent on us providing all sorts of collateral and stipulations. China, judging by the way they operate in Africa and other countries would be one of the last countries I would want to be indebted to.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 28,439 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cabaal


    Max Powers wrote: »
    The level of ignorance on here is staggering. First off we should all take a look at what went on in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria now to see what people will go thru to have the right to vote.

    In that light, voting should not be taken lightly, you should educate yourself on what it is about (not from the tabloids) and make a balanced decision based on what you think is best for the country.

    So very true,
    People who say "I'm not going to vote as a protest" or "I'll just vote no to spite the government cause I don't know what its about" are complete f*cken idiots imho.

    People worked hard for our ability to vote and yet people throw that right away by doing stupid things, your only job is to educate yourself and some people are too lazy to even do that

    :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 563 ✭✭✭millie35


    max powers and cabaal yes or no is the question


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,510 ✭✭✭Max Powers


    millie35 wrote: »
    max powers and cabaal yes or no is the question

    Just for you Millie and your Shakespeare-ish question, Yes, even if its a little early to make up my mind 100%. Reason: mainly because i see prudent budgeting as a good thing for everyone. Our politicans arent capable of running a p-up in a brewery so they seem to need strict guidance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,063 ✭✭✭Finnbar01


    Max Powers wrote: »
    The level of ignorance on here is staggering. First off we should all take a look at what went on in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria now to see what people will go thru to have the right to vote.

    Do you actually think you or anybody else's vote matters one bit?


  • Site Banned Posts: 116 ✭✭DERPY HOOFS


    NO and no again when they make us do it again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,468 ✭✭✭✭OldNotWIse


    Doesn't matter a hoot what way we vote. They will just ask us to vote again and second time around we will give them the answer they want.


  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭insight_man


    Max Powers wrote: »
    Just for you Millie and your Shakespeare-ish question, Yes, even if its a little early to make up my mind 100%. Reason: mainly because i see prudent budgeting as a good thing for everyone. Our politicans arent capable of running a p-up in a brewery so they seem to need strict guidance.

    Interesting view on prudent budgeting Max Powers.

    But consider this in your quest for information and making an informed choice on prudential budgeting and if that concept fits with this treaty:

    Article 4 of the Fiscal Compact Treaty also known as the Austerity Treaty, requires contracting parties (us) to bring our debt to GDP ratio to 60%. This is known as the 1/20th rule. It requires the contracting party (us) to reduce any imbalance in our deficit by 1/20 per year of the figure that exceeds 60%, until the 60% is reached.

    Most economists estimate (because it's looking forward a bit, it's not possible to state the figure to the nearest cent) that our 'imbalance' in 2015 will be €100 billion. Therefore this rule, which becomes EU law and enforcable by the European Court, means that Ireland will have to introduce cuts and savings of €5 billion per year...for 20 years (5 x 20 = 100)

    This is on top and in addition to, any cuts already required / planned under the current programme which is for 2 or 3 more budgets.

    Most economists have said that Ireland cannot and will not survive such a programme, without destroying the very fabric of Irish society.

    This provision gave rise to the term Permenant Austerity. I'm sure you can see the cause and effects for yourself.

    As a numbers person consider this also. Irelands 'insurance' policy ie the ESM, requires us to pay €11.13 billion into the fund. No options, no choices this is the figure.

    Ireland does not have the money, so we borrow the money at high interest rates (from German & French banks etc), then try to pay it back with further cuts, higher taxes and charges etc.

    You would have to consider all this when you talk about 'prudential budgeting'. It can be argued that this process is the direct opposite to the prudential budgeting you are in favour of.

    I hope this post helps you and other boards members when trying to make up your mind wheather to vote yes or no.


  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭insight_man


    OldNotWIse wrote: »
    Doesn't matter a hoot what way we vote. They will just ask us to vote again and second time around we will give them the answer they want.

    Not necessarily true but I understand where you are coming from, Nice 1 & 2, Lisbon 1 & 2.

    This treaty only requires 12 countries to sign up to it and it goes ahead at that stage. So we can vote no and not be forced to vote again. If you remember last time the Irish were 'holding europe to ransom' according to FG/Lab/FF/Greens/PD's/The Media etc, etc.

    But this time Enda Kenny has given his word that we won't be asked to vote again if we vote no.

    Lets test his word and see how good it is.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭insight_man


    Cabaal wrote: »
    So very true,
    People who say "I'm not going to vote as a protest" or "I'll just vote no to spite the government cause I don't know what its about" are complete f*cken idiots imho.

    People worked hard for our ability to vote and yet people throw that right away by doing stupid things, your only job is to educate yourself and some people are too lazy to even do that

    :rolleyes:

    I agree fully about people needing to educate themselves about this treaty. It will have a significant effect on all our lives and our children's lives too.


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