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  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    Fully conscious that this is an impulse bet so I may come to regret it:

    Blackburn v Man Utd LOSE
    (Asian Handicap Cards)
    Blackburn -0.5
    €20 @ 1.95

    Brings net profit to date down to €77.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Card Bets for this weekend, all 365:

    Man Utd v QPR
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 3.0 - €40 @ 1.875

    West Brom v Blackburn
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 3.0 - €20 @ 1.875

    Not card related but can't see anything other than a home win:

    Arsenal v Man City
    (Full Time Result) Arsenal €40 @ 2.40

    And a €5 donation to the good people of Bet365:
    Liverpool v Aston Villa
    (Correct Score) Aston Villa 1-0 €5 @ 19.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    Card Bets for this weekend, all 365:

    Man Utd v QPR
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 3.0 - €40 @ 1.875 PUSH

    West Brom v Blackburn
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 3.0 - €20 @ 1.875 PUSH

    Not card related but can't see anything other than a home win:

    Arsenal v Man City
    (Full Time Result) Arsenal €40 @ 2.40 WIN Returns €96

    And a €5 donation to the good people of Bet365:
    Liverpool v Aston Villa
    (Correct Score) Aston Villa 1-0 €5 @ 19.00 LOSE

    Net profit to date €118


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    For tomorrow:

    QPR v Swansea
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.825

    Wigan v Man Utd
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 4.0 - €40 @ 1.825


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    For tomorrow:

    QPR v Swansea
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.825 WIN Returns €73

    Wigan v Man Utd
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 4.0 - €40 @ 1.825 WIN Returns €73


    Net profit to date €184


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  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    For the weekend, all 365:

    Arsenal v Wigan
    (Asian Total Cards) - Over 3.5 - €40 @ 1.70

    West Brom v QPR
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.90

    FA CUP:
    Liverpool v Everton
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 5.0 - €20 @ 1.925

    Tottenham v Chelsea
    (Card Handicap) - Chelsea 0.0 - €20 @ 2.05


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    For the weekend, all 365:

    Arsenal v Wigan
    (Asian Total Cards) - Over 3.5 - €40 @ 1.70 WIN Returns €68

    West Brom v QPR
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.90 LOSE

    FA CUP:
    Liverpool v Everton
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 5.0 - €20 @ 1.925 PUSH

    Tottenham v Chelsea
    (Card Handicap) - Chelsea 0.0 - €20 @ 2.05 LOSE

    Poor weekend, brings net profit to date down to €152


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    For this weekend, all 365

    Arsenal v Chelsea
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 5.0 - €20 @ 2.025

    Liverpool v West Brom
    (Asian Total Cards) Over 3.0 - €30 @ 2.10

    Fulham v Wigan
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 3.0 - €40 @ 1.875

    Bolton v Swansea
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 4.0 - €50 @ 1.775


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Hi Cardex I was gona back asain over 5 in Arsenal game do you mind me asking why you think it could be under?


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    robbie1977 wrote: »
    Hi Cardex I was gona back asain over 5 in Arsenal game do you mind me asking why you think it could be under?

    My reasoning is pretty flawed to be honest. It's a bit of a throwaway bet. I was actually going to pass on this game altogether but succumbed to weakness as I was about to log off and stuck a sneaky €20 on!

    So it's the chanciest of my bets for the weekend hence the small stake. It's a bit counter intuitive so bear with me. I looked at this during the week when the prices hadn't yet gone up. Everything pointed towards high no. of cards. I had it in mind to bet on >3.5 regardless of the price. Then 365 posted today with a threshold at asian 5.0. Typically when I see asian 5.0, I always go with under, regardless of who's playing. I just have it in my mind that a 6 card game is the exception, not the norm. I also think bookies overestimate local derbies and how dirty they're going to be. I've noticed that a lot these pass off with a pretty average no. of cards. I can see why you'd be considering >5.0. It's the obvious bet and may well come off. Worst case scenario, I lose €20. Hopefully the others will cover it!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    The ref being inexperienced with premier league matches had
    me wondering if he will be able to control the game.
    Its strange giving him a high profile game when he has'nt seemed to
    have done any before.

    Thanks good luck with your bets.
    Great thread.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    robbie1977 wrote: »
    The ref being inexperienced with premier league matches had
    me wondering if he will be able to control the game.

    I think the ref is Mike Dean who has a fair few games under his belt. Could be mistaken.

    I like your logic though. Hadn't entered my thinking at all. It's as good a reason to go with overs as any other.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Oh soccerway has it different :confused:

    http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2012/04/21/england/premier-league/arsenal-fc/chelsea-football-club/1117379/


    Edit your right its Mike Dean soccerway have it wrong.
    they have that other guy down for 2 matches tomorrow now that was'nt there earlier


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Strange that!

    I normally rely on the premiership site cos the details cut and paste nicely into a spreadsheet.

    They have Dean marked down http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/match-official-appointments-21-24-april.html

    http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/match-official-appointments-21-24-april.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    For tonight:

    Barcelona v Real Madrid
    (Number of Cards in Match) - Over 8.5 - €30 @ 1.66

    Barcelona v Real Madrid
    (Full Time Result) - Barcelona - €33 @ 1.61


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    For this weekend, all 365

    Arsenal v Chelsea
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 5.0 - €20 @ 2.025 LOSE (Dumb bet, hopefully Robbie77 made a few quid on overs!)

    Liverpool v West Brom
    (Asian Total Cards) Over 3.0 - €30 @ 2.10 LOSE

    Fulham v Wigan
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 3.0 - €40 @ 1.875 PUSH

    Bolton v Swansea
    (Asian Total Cards) Under 4.0 - €50 @ 1.775 WIN Returns €88.75

    Barcelona v Real Madrid
    (Number of Cards in Match) - Over 8.5 - €30 @ 1.66 LOSE

    Barcelona v Real Madrid
    (Full Time Result) - Barcelona - €33 @ 1.61 LOSE

    Piss poor last weekend although my larger stake came off again. Fortunately most of the Barca bets were offset by in-play punt on next goal here.

    Overall, net profit down to €120.75 approx.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Difficult to see any stand-out card bets this weekend so small stakes:

    Wigan v Newcastle
    (Asian Handicap Cards) - Wigan 0.0 - €20 @ 1.975

    Man City v Man Utd
    (Asian Handicap Cards) - Man Utd 0.0 - €20 @ 1.775

    Like the look of this double:

    Everton v Fulham
    (Full Time Result) - Everton AND
    West Brom v Aston Villa
    (Full Time Result) - West Brom

    €30 returns €85.50


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    For today:

    Newcastle v Man City
    (Full Time Result) - Newcastle - €20 @ 5.50 (got this early in the week before it drifted in) & €30 @ 4.50

    Throwaway accum for the day:
    Stoke @ 4.75
    Tottenham @ 1.90
    Everton @ 1.75
    Trebles, 1 bet * €10.00 returns €148.69


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cards for today:

    Man Utd v Swansea
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.0 - €30 @ 1.90

    Blackburn v Wigan
    (Asian Total Cards) - Over 4.5 - €20 @ 1.775

    Aston Villa v Tottenham
    (Asian Total Cards) - Over 3.0 - €30 @ 1.725

    QPR v Stoke
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 4.0 - €20 @ 2.025


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    Difficult to see any stand-out card bets this weekend so small stakes:

    Wigan v Newcastle
    (Asian Handicap Cards) - Wigan 0.0 - €20 @ 1.975 WIN Returns €39.50

    Man City v Man Utd
    (Asian Handicap Cards) - Man Utd 0.0 - €20 @ 1.775 LOSE

    Like the look of this double:

    Everton v Fulham
    (Full Time Result) - Everton AND
    West Brom v Aston Villa
    (Full Time Result) - West Brom

    €30 returns €85.50 LOSE

    Brings net profit down to €90.25 approx.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    which bookie did you do this bet with?


    Aston Villa v Tottenham
    (Asian Total Cards) - Over 3.0 - €30 @ 1.725


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Formation wrote: »
    which bookie did you do this bet with?


    Aston Villa v Tottenham
    (Asian Total Cards) - Over 3.0 - €30 @ 1.725

    Bet365, they're about the only place you'll find asian cards


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    For today:

    Newcastle v Man City
    (Full Time Result) - Newcastle - €20 @ 5.50 (got this early in the week before it drifted in) & €30 @ 4.50 LOSE

    Throwaway accum for the day:
    Stoke @ 4.75
    Tottenham @ 1.90
    Everton @ 1.75
    Trebles, 1 bet * €10.00 returns €148.69 LOSE


    Brings net profit down to €30.25. Will update cards later after the Wigan game.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    Cards for today:

    Man Utd v Swansea
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.0 - €30 @ 1.90 WIN returns €57.00

    Blackburn v Wigan
    (Asian Total Cards) - Over 4.5 - €20 @ 1.775 LOSE

    Aston Villa v Tottenham
    (Asian Total Cards) - Over 3.0 - €30 @ 1.725 WIN returns €51.75

    QPR v Stoke
    (Asian Total Cards) - Under 4.0 - €20 @ 2.025 WIN returns €40.50

    Brings net profit up to €159.50


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cards for the weekend on bet365:

    Chelsea v Blackburn Rovers - Over 2.0 - €100 @ 1.750
    (Asian Total Cards)
    Referee: L Mason

    Wigan Athletic v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Over 2.0 - €100 @ 1.850
    (Asian Total Cards)
    Referee: M Oliver

    Must say I like the look of both even allowing for the fact that Mason and Oliver are at the lenient end of the scale (average 2.52 and 2.45 cards per game respectively).

    Chelsea and Blackburn have the worst disiciplinary records in the league, 19th and 20th in the table respectively.
    6 cards when they met last November
    Chelsea team cards in their last 5 games: 4 - 4 - 3- 2 - 1
    Blackburn team cards in their last 5 games: 2 - 1 - 2 - 4 -1

    Wigan and Wolves are similarly high up the disciplinary table, 17th and 14th respectively.
    3 cards when they met last November
    Wigan team cards in their last 5 games: 1 - 2 - 2 - 3 - 1
    team cards in their last 5 games: 1 - 1 - 3 - 1 - 1

    Resaonably confident we'll at least hit Asian 2.0 on both of these thereby guaranteeing stakes returned. After that we're in the money.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Just lumped another €160 on cards in Chelsea Blackburn


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Cardex


    Cardex wrote: »
    Cards for the weekend on bet365:

    Chelsea v Blackburn Rovers - Over 2.0 - €100 @ 1.750 LOSE
    (Asian Total Cards)
    Referee: L Mason

    Wigan Athletic v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Over 2.0 - €100 @ 1.850 WIN returns €185
    (Asian Total Cards)
    Referee: M Oliver
    Cardex wrote: »
    Just lumped another €160 on cards in Chelsea Blackburn LOSE

    Ugh, well I was intending on finishing the season with a bang but not like this! All net profit to date wiped out. Net loss around €15 I'd say. Will be back in August.

    In the meantime, I've been following some of this chap's daily tips. His analysis on some games is really excellent (although some days he just lists the bets without reasons). Worth taking a look. Will be following the rolling accumulators in particular.


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