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Champion Hurdle, 13-03-12

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Please elaborate how I'm missing the point please.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    seoirsem wrote: »
    I'm siding with Hurricane Fly to win. HOWEVER as I'd never back a horse at odds-on at the festival, I'm looking for the each-way value instead. With it being 5/1 bar the Hurricane there are plenty to chose from : Zarkandar was impressive when winning the Betfair. but has been on anti-biotics since so hes not for me. Binocular is also at 5/1 and on his Kingwell victory you'd imagine he's make the frame for sure. A couple at bigger prices are Celestial Halo who chased Binocular home last time out, seems to be around forever but still only an 8 year-old. Won the champion hurdle trial at Newbury and Rock on Ruby again for the Nicholls yard at a tasty 14/1. Only beaten a short-head in last year's Neptune and less than a length behind Binocular in the Christmas hurdle. At a recent preview night Paul Nicholls couldn't understand why he was such a big price. But for me though my €10EW in the Champion Hurdle is going on Oscars Well. Jessie Harrington says he'll love the good ground. On straight form he has 7 lengths to find on Rock On Ruby for last year's Neptune Investment but I thought he ran a great race in not ideal conditions in the Irish Champion so I'll go for Oscars each-way.
    You then are playing for two places if you think The Fly will win.20e invested at 12/1 @1/4 the odds a place ,returns 40e if placed =1/1.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Please elaborate how I'm missing the point please.

    Actually having re-read your original post Fryern I really want you to "bother to explain"


  • Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭seoirsem


    sting60 wrote: »
    You then are playing for two places if you think The Fly will win.20e invested at 12/1 @1/4 the odds a place ,returns 40e if placed =1/1.
    Point taken, but still evens on Oscars to finish in the frame is a good bet and there's always the chance that .......


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    seoirsem wrote: »
    Point taken, but still evens on Oscars to finish in the frame is a good bet and there's always the chance that .......
    My point is ,if you are afraid of Hurricane Fly why not take 5/1 without.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭mr.jingle


    Zarkandar
    sting60 wrote: »
    My point is ,if you are afraid of Hurricane Fly why not take 5/1 without.

    Completely agree with you sting, the amount of people that tend to think that getting a placed between 8/1 - 12/1 shot is better than backing an even money shot is unreal, hear it nearly everyday in the bookies lads saying its better value when quite clearly it ain't!

    Not this race specifically just in general.

    I'd take the 5/1 w/o HF if you were confident enough


  • Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭seoirsem


    Fair enough lads, yer points are well made, but I'm an amateur barstool punter and the total paranoia I would have of Oscars dare I say winning and me taking 5/1 rather than 12's . I appreciate the advice though. Honestly it's something I've not studied in depth before.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    For a start don't back Oscars at 12/1. Coral are 14/1 NRNB


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    I really cannot believe he is so short in the betting. He seems a two and a half miler to me


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Zarkandar
    UrbanSea wrote: »
    I really cannot believe he is so short in the betting. He seems a two and a half miler to me

    Which is what you need to win the Champion, lots of stamina


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    As well as bags of speed. I'd back him in the Aintree Hurdle, but not a chance would I at Cheltenham


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭Mgoraf


    "From 8:30am tomorrow Hills will go 5-4 about Hurricane Fly in Champ Hdle.Available across all channels-retail, phone, internet and mobile."


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Mgoraf wrote: »
    "From 8:30am tomorrow Hills will go 5-4 about Hurricane Fly in Champ Hdle.Available across all channels-retail, phone, internet and mobile."

    Fair play to Hills, they often take a huge stand against horses


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Using the poll results Boards users estimate HF to be a 1/4 shot!


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 4,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shane732


    Zarkandar
    Using the poll results Boards users estimate HF to be a 1/4 shot!

    Think that would probably about the right price.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 4,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shane732


    Zarkandar
    Mgoraf wrote: »
    "From 8:30am tomorrow Hills will go 5-4 about Hurricane Fly in Champ Hdle.Available across all channels-retail, phone, internet and mobile."

    Wow, serious? VC are 4/6!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    Hurricane Fly will be odds against the day of the race anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Good to see the battle for turnover is alive & well. I rarely bet much NRNB unless I really see something over priced (usually in the handicaps). The likes of Somersby in the Ryanair or Boston Bob in whichever race he runs in won't be much shorter if at all on the day.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Good to see the battle for turnover is alive & well. I rarely bet much NRNB unless I really see something over priced (usually in the handicaps). The likes of Somersby in the Ryanair or Boston Bob in whichever race he runs in won't be much shorter if at all on the day.

    Well at least when plans are known


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Shane732 wrote: »
    Using the poll results Boards users estimate HF to be a 1/4 shot!

    Think that would probably about the right price.

    Slight bit of Hyperbole!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    but as I learned the hard way, any horse is beatable.

    back in 2003, the day after the gold cup I did 6 cross-trebles for the 2004 festival with 3 horses in the hurdle (only Rooster Booster lined up), Azertyioup and Moscow in the QM & Best Mate in the GC.
    was almost already planning how to spend my winnings (decent 4 figure sum), only for a 33/1 shot called Hardy Eustace to come along and spoil everything.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 4,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shane732


    Zarkandar
    Huntley wrote: »
    Hurricane Fly will be odds against the day of the race anyway.

    I reckon he will be as well but I think 5/4 is worry taking at this stage. He's not going to go much bigger that 5/4 anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Arbers already off & running on Betfair. HF now 2.0 to lay. Was less than 1.9 earlier.

    Still if you could lay him for a chunk at evs & get on at 5/4 you'd have a nice arb paying 3.5% ish for 8 days


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 4,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shane732


    Zarkandar
    Slight bit of Hyperbole!

    Maybe just a bit....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Binocular
    Shane732 wrote: »
    I reckon he will be as well but I think 5/4 is worry taking at this stage. He's not going to go much bigger that 5/4 anyway.

    Wills (William Hills like Jedward :D ) are BOG so may aswell take the 5/4.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    Not on ante post bets hucklebuck


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭prettyboy81


    Zarkandar
    That 5/4 will not last long 2mo me thinks, it will be hoovered up & gone by lunch time if it doesn't fair play to Hills.....I think Hurricane Fly arrives all well at the festival & if Sprinter Sacre bolts in like most are suggesting then Hurricane Fly will go off odds on 4/5....


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    As good a special it is I think waiting and backing him on the day with the Boyles special would still be the better option.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    Arbers already off & running on Betfair. HF now 2.0 to lay. Was less than 1.9 earlier.

    Still if you could lay him for a chunk at evs & get on at 5/4 you'd have a nice arb paying 3.5% ish for 8 days

    I wouldnt want to do it that way round though in case you can't get the bet on with Hills


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Btw where was this advertised/announced?


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