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Champion Hurdle, 13-03-12

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13 tomdillon2012


    Binocular to win dont think Hurricane Fly is suited to Chelt track, Binocular a course specialist. I think the Fly is underpriced @ odds on. Surely Sizing europe represents better value if you want something @ that price. Binocular e/w for me


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Zarkandar
    Binocular to win dont think Hurricane Fly is suited to Chelt track, Binocular a course specialist. I think the Fly is underpriced @ odds on. Surely Sizing europe represents better value if you want something @ that price. Binocular e/w for me

    Make up your mind


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Zarkandar
    Binocular to win dont think Hurricane Fly is suited to Chelt track, Binocular a course specialist. I think the Fly is underpriced @ odds on. Surely Sizing europe represents better value if you want something @ that price. Binocular e/w for me

    If you watch last years Champion Hurdle you'll see Hurricane Fly pulled very hard from the start yet still had enough left in the tank to battle a tough Peddlers up the hill. In fact, Mullins has since stated he was disappointed with last years winning run!

    Now to this year... Mullins says The Fly's most recent win was he best ever! Why? Crucially, Mullins noted that they were fearful for the horse's chances that day (hence the alarming drift) as he didn't have the usual "boldness" beforehand. He would, with hindsight given the exhibition that followed, later suggest that this may simply be because the horse has matured and settles better.


    Binocular's run against Celestial Halo, while impressive, doesn't hold up to The Fly's equally devastating showing against much better quality in Oscars Well, Thousand Stars and Unaccompanied.


    Conclusion: While Binocular is definitely worth an each-way bet, The Fly is proven at Cheltenham, will settle better this year and have more left in the tank to power up the hill. Only one winner I'm afraid! ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13 tomdillon2012


    Binocular to swot the fly up the hill. . Would you rather back a quevega big bucks double @ 6/4 or hurricane fly @ 10/11


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 4,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shane732


    Zarkandar
    Binocular to swot the fly up the hill. . Would you rather back a quevega big bucks double @ 6/4 or hurricane fly @ 10/11

    With Quevega you're hoping that Mullins turns her out right first time and that the mares race is pretty weak. Personally I fancy Quevega - even if she's not 100% I think she'll beat the rest of the field.

    I think a Mullins treble may be on the cards. What about the fourfold for Ruby - including Kauto in the mix!

    You can get somewhere around the 5/2 mark on the treble.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Zarkandar
    Binocular to swot the fly up the hill. . Would you rather back a quevega big bucks double @ 6/4 or hurricane fly @ 10/11

    If I was going big I'd do the single on Hurricane Fly definitely. Ruby laughs when asked has he any worries about The Fly whereas he warns that it would be a major feat for Quevega and Big Bucks, while massive favourites in weaker looking fields, to take their respective races for the fourth year. Oscar Whiskey, although not proven over World Hurdle trip, scares me as I ALWAYS FEAR THE UNKNOWN.

    I've all 3 done in numurous ways anyway so I'll be a loser if any are beat! :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭mr.jingle


    Zarkandar
    Shane732 wrote: »
    With Quevega you're hoping that Mullins turns her out right first time and that the mares race is pretty weak. Personally I fancy Quevega - even if she's not 100% I think she'll beat the rest of the field.

    I think a Mullins treble may be on the cards. What about the fourfold for Ruby - including Kauto in the mix!

    You can get somewhere around the 5/2 mark on the treble.

    Who are the three in your Mullins treble?

    With Paddy power giving better prices on all Ruby Walsh's mounts in March including the Festival then i can see you getting even's there on the day. Personally can see him going off around 10/11 on the day. Personally i can only see Zarkandar as his only real challenger this year as he's unexposed compared to some of the others


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Zarkandar
    mr.jingle wrote: »
    Who are the three in your Mullins treble?

    With Paddy power giving better prices on all Ruby Walsh's mounts in March including the Festival then i can see you getting even's there on the day. Personally can see him going off around 10/11 on the day. Personally i can only see Zarkandar as his only real challenger this year as he's unexposed compared to some of the others

    Ruby says Zarkander wont have the pace for CH and that Binocular is the main danger. Can't be having Zarkander given Ruby refuses to give him a chance!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    I remember reading before though that Ruby never really rated Zarkandar


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    Good support for Rock On Ruby today in the champion market

    While I think HF will win of the so called "good things" he surely faces the stiffest opposition


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Zarkandar
    UrbanSea wrote: »
    I remember reading before though that Ruby never really rated Zarkandar

    And it seems he still doesn't when it's up against proven CH class in The Fly and Binocular! Paul Nicholls has been tipping it up as a brilliant each way bet at the Festival but it screams out to me why a superb race judge such as Ruby hasn't done likewise given he's rode the horse and the horse has done absolutely everything asked of him. It's obvious from the Betfair Hurdle at least that Zarkander is the type of horse who keeps finding and finding but I don't think Ruby feels it has the class to be a CH contender.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Zarkandar
    Good support for Rock On Ruby today in the champion market

    While I think HF will win of the so called "good things" he surely faces the stiffest opposition

    Who of the "good things" do you think will get beat? I have, like many I assume, done all (SS, HF, Q, BB) but one will invariably let me down...just keep changing my mind each day as to which one it'll be! :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Zarkandar
    I'm not in a hurry to oppose any of the "shorties" but will be availing of the PP offer innate Arkle. Probably via an each way bet on Cue Card


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,271 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Foolish to write off an unbeaten horse.

    Nobody knows how much Zarkandar has left in the locker, not even Ruby.

    I do think he'll need to travel much sweeter than he did at Newbury but after the cough and being out for so long who knows how straight he was that day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Zarkandar
    mdwexford wrote: »
    Foolish to write off an unbeaten horse.

    Nobody knows how much Zarkandar has left in the locker, not even Ruby.

    I do think he'll need to travel much sweeter than he did at Newbury but after the cough and being out for so long who knows how straight he was that day.

    Well if anyone knows I'm pretty sure it's Ruby! ;) Given his Cheltenham record, I can rarely remember Ruby choosing the wrong mount in a big race, bar choosing his beloved Kauto over Denham when beaten occasionally.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,783 ✭✭✭handsomecake


    jimjamcos wrote: »
    Well if anyone knows I'm pretty sure it's Ruby! ;) Given his Cheltenham record, I can rarely remember Ruby choosing the wrong mount in a big race, bar choosing his beloved Kauto over Denham when beaten occasionally.
    he under rated zarkandar in last years triumph;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    Zarkandar
    he under rated zarkandar in last years triumph;)

    OOPS...I stand corrected, apologies! :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Binocular
    I am all over Zarkandar since September and thought that was a huge performance for a sick horse who will come on for the run.


    Write him off at your peril. He may not have the greatest top gear but he keeps finding for pressure and won't be fading out the back like a wilted lilly.

    I reckon it will be a close fought thing between HF and Zarkandar with Binocular in third.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Zarkandar
    hucklebuck wrote: »
    I am all over Zarkandar since September and thought that was a huge performance for a sick horse who will come on for the run.


    Write him off at your peril. He may not have the greatest top gear but he keeps finding for pressure and won't be fading out the back like a wilted lilly.

    I reckon it will be a close fought thing between HF and Zarkandar with Binocular in third.

    Zarkandar can't win the champion hurdle if he comes off the bridle before 2 out as he has done in all his races do far. He gets outpaced and stays on. Against Hurricane Fly he will be staying on far too late.

    I see nothing to suggest he will travel any better, and I don't think he is as good as Peddlers Cross who came into last years CH unbeaten.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭d-gal


    Have taken thousand stars at 25/1 which I think is a crazy price. I don't think he will win but has a huge chance of placing. Fly, binocular and thousand stars for me.
    I'd much rather take over a 6/1 place rather than Zarkandar/Binocular which they don't have a hope The Fly!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    One reason why I stopped each way betting. The horse has no chance of winning IMO, and a place at 25/1 is effectively a little over a 5/2


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Zarkandar
    UrbanSea wrote: »
    One reason why I stopped each way betting. The horse has no chance of winning IMO, and a place at 25/1 is effectively a little over a 5/2


    YEP the horse has to have a chance of winning as well or its better to bet place only odds on betfair.. Altough in fairness maybe Thousand stars has a better than 25/1 chance (he is depending on something happening to HF).


  • Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭mccarte2


    Rock on Ruby
    Why not just back Thousand Stars at the 4/1 or 5/1 to place you'll probably get on the machine?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭d-gal


    mccarte2 wrote: »
    Why not just back Thousand Stars at the 4/1 or 5/1 to place you'll probably get on the machine?
    Just in case ;) horse is highly rated and over halft the horses in the race are over rated.
    I usually don't back anything e/w unless a minimum 16/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    Zarkandar
    Zarkandar can't win the champion hurdle if he comes off the bridle before 2 out as he has done in all his races do far. He gets outpaced and stays on. Against Hurricane Fly he will be staying on far too late.

    I see nothing to suggest he will travel any better, and I don't think he is as good as Peddlers Cross who came into last years CH unbeaten.

    Totally agree, and tbh the frightening thing for Hurricanes rivals is last year wasnt even he's best, he pulled hard and never settled. If he gets into he's usual rhythm say like Punchestown last year then Zarkandar would have absolutely no chance and Binocular would need a career best which seems a bit far fetched.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    Twelve left in it. Olofi will hardly go, along with Zaidpour. Maybe even Brampour

    http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=59354


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Zarkandar
    Do people reckon Brampour will go for this or the County hurdle? Top weight in the county, but perhaps Nicholls wants him in to keep weights down for his other entries?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    That could be true 9. I'd be surprised to see him in the Champion, but who knows.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Zarkandar
    I'm sure if they thought he could pick up place money in the CH they would go for it. I can't see him doing much in the county off 11st 12lb.

    I can't see him picking up money in the CH either off level weights against that opposition.

    Tough one for them, I think leaving him in the County to keep weights down is the most productive thing they can do.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Grandouet
    And they'd have a 7lb claimer on him. Why the interest, are you thinking of having a punt on him for the County?


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