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Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

  • 21-11-2011 10:17pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭


    I was wondering what horse you think represents the best value in the ante post markets for Cheltenham?

    For me it's Samain but I am not sure where he is going, that aside Denman could be well worth an each way smash given the training masterstroke on Kauto.


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 436 ✭✭Huntey


    Sir Des Champs at 25/1, Ante-Post would break your heart though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,219 ✭✭✭Goldcupfav


    Sonofvic ew at 33/1 for the RSA. Should be running in a novice chase over 3m on Thursday at Newbury. 2/2 over hurdles always going to make a much better chaser.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Goldcupfav wrote: »
    Sonofvic ew at 33/1 for the RSA. Should be running in a novice chase over 3m on Thursday at Newbury. 2/2 over hurdles always going to make a much better chaser.

    Grands Crus will be in that novice chase on Thursday aswell I think


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,219 ✭✭✭Goldcupfav


    Grands Crus will be in that novice chase on Thursday aswell I think

    Yeah seen he was entered in the race. If GC runs i will have a nibble on Sonofvic w/o GC.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,285 ✭✭✭Oscars Well.


    Prospect Wells for the supreme novices at 14/1.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Ive no doubt at all , Tataniano is superb value for the Champion Chase. on good ground i think hell be difficult to beat, he is in the top 3 jumpers of a fence in training imo... 16/1 currently i have a little bit on at 25/1 not so long ago..


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,271 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Ive no doubt at all , Tataniano is superb value for the Champion Chase. on good ground i think hell be difficult to beat, he is in the top 3 jumpers of a fence in training imo... 16/1 currently i have a little bit on at 25/1 not so long ago..

    I was expecting big things from him last year but things didnt go to plan.

    He is a savage jumper and that round he put in at Aintree when slamming Osana was the best round id seen from a novice since Azertyuiops Arkle.

    On good ground against the current crop id fancy him to run really well also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Have had a little on Mr. Moonshine for the RSA at 33/1 and Unaccompanied for the Champion Hurdle at 33/1.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    SE will be 10-y-o and BZ will be 11-y-o in march and they are the first 2 in the betting.
    Captain Chris is 4th fav and he might'nt run in it.

    Realt Dubh is 25/1 with sportingbet for the champion chase.
    He was 3rd in the arkle, which has a great record for it runners in the next years CC.
    He then pushed Captain Chris hard at punchestown.
    With normal improvement this year he should have a good chance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,330 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Just dont see him being quick enough. If he good enough for a grade 1 at the festival, I think it will be the Ryanair.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 436 ✭✭Huntey


    Wishfull Thinking has a better chance of going for the Queen Mother than Captain Chris imo. Wouldn't be surprised to see him stepped back to 2 miles.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    If Captain Chris runs in the Champion Chase then he will probably win it. I learned my lesson last year. Never ever take on the Arkle winner in the Queen Mother. The record is unreal


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,219 ✭✭✭Goldcupfav


    Goldcupfav wrote: »
    Sonofvic ew at 33/1 for the RSA. Should be running in a novice chase over 3m on Thursday at Newbury. 2/2 over hurdles always going to make a much better chaser.

    Goes up against Grand Crus tomorrow. 6/1 with 365 now. Think thats a decent price. I have my doubts over Grand Crus staying 3 miles. Paul Nicholls always keeps one of his better chasing prospects for this race. (1833 and Michel Le Bon winners the last two years both are fancied for the Hennessy on Sat, his record is 7 winners in the last 20 runnings also had a few bf's in the last few years) With Viking Blond in the race they should go a decent clip even with 4 runners. Im on Sonofvic EW at 33's for the RSA if he does manage to beat GC tomorrow he will be less than half that price tomorrow evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,271 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    The Grands Crus thing is getting old, the horse has bags of stamina and is proven over three miles.

    Just because Big Bucks got the better of him last season twice doesnt mean he lacks staying power.

    If BB had gotten injured GC would have crushed everything all season.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    mdwexford wrote: »
    The Grands Crus thing is getting old, the horse has bags of stamina and is proven over three miles.

    Just because Big Bucks got the better of him last season twice doesnt mean he lacks staying power.

    If BB had gotten injured GC would have crushed everything all season.

    He did finish 6th behind 3 Mullins horses in France. Maybe he was over the top but he stopped very fast that day when the going got tough


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    I'm not in the "Grand Crus won't stay" camp but I am in the "RSA is a gruelling test for young horses & can ruin them" camp.

    I'd go Jewson if he were mine. Knowing Pipe he'll surely at least get an entry in the Gold Cup & if he's on track to be top novice chaser I wouldn't put it past them to run him


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    I'm not in the "Grand Crus won't stay" camp but I am in the "RSA is a gruelling test for young horses & can ruin them" camp.

    I'd go Jewson if he were mine. Knowing Pipe he'll surely at least get an entry in the Gold Cup & if he's on track to be top novice chaser I wouldn't put it past them to run him

    It's amazing how often Pipe says 'pick up some prize money' in his interview, I don't recall Nicholls every mentioning the money. I understand Nicholls has better horses but I wouldn't put it past Pipe to make the wrong choice for the horse just for the cash


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 436 ✭✭Huntey


    I'm not in the "Grand Crus won't stay" camp but I am in the "RSA is a gruelling test for young horses & can ruin them" camp.

    I'd go Jewson if he were mine. Knowing Pipe he'll surely at least get an entry in the Gold Cup & if he's on track to be top novice chaser I wouldn't put it past them to run him

    Would you not think that running a novice in the Gold Cup would have a greater chance of ruining him than the RSA?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Huntey wrote: »
    I'm not in the "Grand Crus won't stay" camp but I am in the "RSA is a gruelling test for young horses & can ruin them" camp.

    I'd go Jewson if he were mine. Knowing Pipe he'll surely at least get an entry in the Gold Cup & if he's on track to be top novice chaser I wouldn't put it past them to run him

    Would you not think that running a novice in the Gold Cup would have a greater chance of ruining him than the RSA?

    Yes!

    2 independent points. I was saying firstly I'm not a fan of the RSA for young horses & maybe they'd go the Jewson route => ante post no go

    Secondly Pipe might be tempted by the GC (there seemed to be considering throwing him in at the deep end in the Betfair) so a double ante post no go


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,271 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Yeah if Grands Crus does rack up a few I could see them going the Pillar/Gold Cup route like they did with Therealbandit or the Racing Post chase/Gold Cup route they went with Gloria Victis who were both novices.

    Especially in what is looking a weak year, if anything was to happen to Long Run its up for grabs. (Hopefully nothing will happen to him)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    It's amazing how often Pipe says 'pick up some prize money' in his interview, I don't recall Nicholls every mentioning the money. I understand Nicholls has better horses but I wouldn't put it past Pipe to make the wrong choice for the horse just for the cash

    The number one function of a trainer in reality is to win prize money to keep the owners happy, at the end of the day it is the owners who will make the decisions all the trainer can do is advise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    I was thinking Steps to Freedom @ 10/1 for the Supreme Novices as a decent ante post bet. Has been impressive enough all summer and in the 2 graded novice hurdles he ran in. Also showing he can get up the hill at Cheltenham pretty well last time out when rallying from behind to get his head in front. Only thing I'd be worried about is his hurdling, he's liable to make a mistake or two on the way round.

    Jessie has said she's putting him away until Cheltenham and the only run he'll get is on the all weather early next year so the chance of him getting injured and not making it to the post are probably slightly smaller than with other novices who have a full campaign to get through.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    Arctic89 wrote: »
    I was thinking Steps to Freedom @ 10/1 for the Supreme Novices as a decent ante post bet. Has been impressive enough all summer and in the 2 graded novice hurdles he ran in. Also showing he can get up the hill at Cheltenham pretty well last time out when rallying from behind to get his head in front. Only thing I'd be worried about is his hurdling, he's liable to make a mistake or two on the way round.

    Jessie has said she's putting him away until Cheltenham and the only run he'll get is on the all weather early next year so the chance of him getting injured and not making it to the post are probably slightly smaller than with other novices who have a full campaign to get through.

    Personally I thought that Erricht was the horse to take out of that Cheltenham race you talked about , it was hes debut over hurdles and looked novicey at a few but is definitely open to huge improvement, he was sixth in last years champion bumper aswell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    My only ante post bet so far is Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. At 10/1.

    I know he hasn't jumped a fence yet, but Henderson always said he was an Arkle horse in making.
    No horse travelled better than him in the Supreme last year but he just got out stayed up the hill to finish 5 lenghts third to the class Al Ferof.
    Another year on his back and bound to improve hugely from 5 to 6.
    And basically once he wins any mickey mouse race over fences he will shorten up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Solwhit is interesting for the Arkle. Couldn't have him on my mind as an antepost bet but if he got to Cheltenham in good form, I'd be taking anything above 6/1. Of course, I'm saying that having not seen him jump. Assuming the best, he's likely to be in the first 3 in the betting anyhow.

    Is 30/1 value at this stage though? Not seen him jump a fence, on the easy list with a ligament injury.....probably about the right price imo. He's rated 164 over hurdles.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    Far to early to back anything for Cheltenham.A horse I would like to see run over three miles is Medermit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Slattsy wrote: »
    My only ante post bet so far is Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. At 10/1.

    I know he hasn't jumped a fence yet, but Henderson always said he was an Arkle horse in making.
    No horse travelled better than him in the Supreme last year but he just got out stayed up the hill to finish 5 lenghts third to the class Al Ferof.
    Another year on his back and bound to improve hugely from 5 to 6.
    And basically once he wins any mickey mouse race over fences he will shorten up.

    WOW !!!! Did you see him jump lads??
    Unbelievable jumper for a novice.
    Into 7s now in most places. Might go in again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    Very impressive jumping. I'm on Peddlers though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,219 ✭✭✭Goldcupfav


    Jumping was class but im sure he would of had harder schooling sessions at home than that race today.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Goldcupfav wrote: »
    Jumping was class but im sure he would of had harder schooling sessions at home than that race today.

    Definitely but like I said, he was bound to shorten even if he won a 2 runner race.
    The Arkle is gonna be some race.


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