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The Arc

  • 05-07-2011 12:36pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 25,775 ✭✭✭✭


    I can't see past Pour Moi for The Arc. 3yo's have dominated the race in the last 15 years or so and usually it is won by a 3yo who has won a G1 over 1m 4f by mid July. So we're looking at Pour Moi, Treasure Beach or a possible runaway winner of the Grand Prix de Paris on Thursday week.

    I think a lot of it has to do with the weight-for-age and that the 3yo have really strengthened and matured come October and so are possibly built more like 4yo's come the latter part of the season but still receive WFA.

    Also the last 2 Epsom Derby winners have gone on to win The Arc.

    So what does everyone else fancy for the race?


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Last 2 derby winners have gone on to win the Arc but one was a freak and last years Arc was brutal.
    Pour Moi looks a good bet but I can't back him for the simple fact that he has to be ridden from back of the field. If the field is about 20 horses that could be very off putting,with the race famous for having traffic problems


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    I decided a good few years back that I'd only ever back French-trained 3yos for the Arc. Decided on this after doing my brains on English/Irish trained horses in the late 80s and early 90s. Obviously the last 2 Arc winners were Irish and English trained but the likes of Carnegie, Peintre Celebre, Montjeu, Dalakhani, Rail Link, Zarkava etc. have given me a nice enough profit on it in recent years.

    Overall it's a 3yo's race and the French horses are laid out all season for it. Pour Moi looks to have a great chance and will probably be a much shorter price on the day if So You Think doesn't turn up but I think Baraan could be ante-post value at 14/1. He beat Pour Moi at Longchamp in April and he lost about 10 lengths at the start of the French Derby last month but finished really well to get 3rd. If he wins the Grand Prix de Paris next week he'll be a lot shorter for the Arc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    The only stand out one at this stage is Pour Moi , just think of him passing the post at Epsom he was in a different class to the rest of the field . It's not too hard to see him him doing the same in the Arc . Every year people get excited about some of the older horses for the Arc and end up backing some of them in hope of a good price . You would be hard pressed to make a profit backing older horses in the race , they do win but it's very hard to pick the right one . English or Irish Derby winners on the other hand have a great record , but they have to be top Notch . Is Pour Moi top notch , i think so .
    1999 Montjeu 3 Michael Kinane John Hammond Michael Tabor 2:38.5
    2000 Sinndar 3 Johnny Murtagh John Oxx HH Aga Khan IV 2:25.8
    2001 Sakhee 4 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 2:36.1
    2002 Marienbard 5 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 2:26.7
    2003 Dalakhani 3 Christophe Soumillon Alain de Royer-Dupré HH Aga Khan IV 2:32.3
    2004 Bago 3 Thierry Gillet Jonathan Pease Niarchos Family 2:25.0
    2005 Hurricane Run 3 Kieren Fallon André Fabre Michael Tabor 2:27.4
    2006 Rail Link 3 Stéphane Pasquier André Fabre Khalid Abdullah 2:26.3
    2007 Dylan Thomas 4 Kieren Fallon Aidan O'Brien Magnier / Tabor 2:28.5
    2008 Zarkava 3 Christophe Soumillon Alain de Royer-Dupré HH Aga Khan IV 2:28.8
    2009 Sea the Stars 3 Michael Kinane John Oxx Christopher Tsui 2:26.3
    2010 Workforce 3 Ryan L. Moore Sir Michael Stoute Prince Khalid Abdullah 2:35.3

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prix_de_l'Arc_de_Triomphe
    There are always the fillies but they have a poor strike rate , i like the French Filly Golden Lilac . The only older horse that appeals is So You Think if he runs (unlikely) as he has the profile of a tough older horse . Workforce shouldn't be good enough to win it two years in a row , not even the great Montjeu could do that . What about the Japanese horses does anyone know who they are likely to be sending over , you will get a better price about their quality horses than the likes of a midday or the Leger winner .


    Just looking at the betting 9/1 for St Nicholas Abbey in the Arc , 7/4 for the King George . Wonder what price you would get for the Arc straight after the King George if he wins it . If you had a bet at the 9/1 now you could lay it off on betfair after the King George if he won the race and you'ld definitely beat the 7/4 on offer in the king George . Would that work .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    I've 25 each way on St Nic for the Arc at 33/1. Put it on after he was beaten on his reappearance this year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    I've 25 each way on St Nic for the Arc at 33/1. Put it on after he was beaten on his reappearance this year.
    Tasty , he looked like a monster at Chester and Epsom was a let down even though he won . Even if he's just a classy stayer he could easily run into a place like Westerner did a few years ago , he finishes like a train . Do you use Betfair , i'm a bit old school but if i had more time and money i'd enjoy hunting for value on it .

    Hopefully Moore won't be on him if Workforce runs . A nice cool Jockey on him like Soumillon or Colm O Donohue might keep him balanced and out of trouble .


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Im not the biggest fan of bet fair,just something I don't like about it but I do occasionally lay.
    Ive said before,I don't like Moore riding for Coolmore ahead of some of the lads there. Colm would be my choice,hasn't put a foot wrong.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Galikova is running today, yet again over 1m2???? Am I wrong that she looks like she needs 1m4?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Quite correct but should still have the class to do it over 10. Have you a link to the card?


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,775 ✭✭✭✭kfallon


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    Quite correct but should still have the class to do it over 10. Have you a link to the card?

    http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,453718,00.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=658996&meetingid=48389&date=2011-08-15&ref=mainracenavigation&refsite=&nav=racecards


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Strong race. She may get away with it in a weak race but not in that,she couldn't quite get to Golden Lilac last time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Looks a strong group 1 for Goldikova.

    Planteur each way for me at 12/1

    http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,453719,00.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,949 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    I'm all over golden lilac at 5/4


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Galikova wins at 9/4 with Golden Lilac third at 5/4 fav


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Looks like Galikova won well 3 lengths better than golden lilac. 10/1 for Arc now, reckon.the step up will serve her well


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,949 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    It's clear she needs the step up now, The dead ground brought out the stamina in her. I don't think she's that much better than golden lilac tbf.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    First thoughts , she's only so fancied for the Arc because of her pedigree. I looked back for 3y old fillies that won the Arc, Zarkava was already a superstar at this stage like Three Troikas in 1979. Galikova is more like the Aga Khans 1982 winner Akiyda , who finished 2nd in the Diane like Galikova and hadn't won a group race before the Arc. So maybe she can keep improving, nothing apart from Pour Moi or his stablemate Meandre appeals unless So You Think takes his chance.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    I have fancied her for 1m4 in a bit and she definately needs it. Not sure about the comment on her breeding being fair, she is with a decent trainer, has a top jockey on her and seems to fly late on - all very handy for a decent arc


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Not too many big race wins missing from Galileo's stud record. If she could win the Arc it'd top off a near perfect year for him


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,049 ✭✭✭Brianderunner


    Booked my eurostar last week and going to this race for the 5th time now. For me its between Workforce and Nathaniel, with the slight nod for Workforce. I don't buy into Pour Moi at all, he just outstayed tired horses in Epsom imo and i can see him coming 7th or 8th.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    I don't think that's necessarily a fair description. The horse has great speed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Arc trials today, thought i'd resurrect this thread. First trial over and Sarafina did the business in quite a strong field in the Foy. Still think she won't do it in the Arc, hope Galikova gives Galileo his seventh Gp1 winner out of this 3yo old crop in the Vermeille.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Good auld Galikova :). Keep up the good work my wonderful princess, the Arc is there for the taking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Sarafina has that Arc wrapped up. Her turn of foot will blow them away. Her run in last years race is so unbelievable that she deserves to win it this year.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Nulty wrote: »
    Sarafina has that Arc wrapped up. Her turn of foot will blow them away. Her run in last years race is so unbelievable that she deserves to win it this year.

    I am taking her as cover but I am very confident of Galikova, I reckon she was not as fit as she could have been, won it handily and the smile on the faces of head and peslier spoke a thousand words to me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    The race Sarafina won has a poor record in the Arc statistically. I think it's quite open this year


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    I liked Reliable Mans win, and of those definitely running in the Arc he's the best value, Galikova has done enough to convince me she's up to it but she's not confirmed yet and neither are Nathaniel and So You Think. Can't have Sarafina or Workforce and i think they will make the market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    UrbanSea wrote: »
    The race Sarafina won has a poor record in the Arc statistically. I think it's quite open this year

    That makes 0 difference to the horse though. I agree it is quite open but she is certainly the deserved favorite. I wouldn't want to be taking any shorter than she is now though for obvious reasons. Did you see the race Urban? She was mighty impressive. I don't think there's a gap she won't go for and that turn of foot makes her a near certainty to place so long as she doesn't get floored on the run in.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    I know that,that's why I said statistically.

    Yeah,I thought she should have been thrown out


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    She would've been thrown out if she was English-trained but the French stewards wouldn't want to upset the Aga Khan. I think CP Lemaire is a major drawback for Sarafina. He gave her a terrible ride in last year's Prix Vermeille and he gave her a shyte ride on Sunday, almost not getting a run in a 4 runner race. He's a clueless jockey - just look at the ride he gave Sahpresa in the Falmouth at Newmarket this year to see just how clueless he is. I can see him getting into all sorts of trouble in the Arc.

    I think the Arc will be won by a 3yo as they've won everything else this year. Galikova and Nathaniel would be on my shortlist.


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