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Winter Charts 2011/2012

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Dear me ,

    Are we going to have to do this all again ,

    Another Easterly on the Horizon far far far far far out in FI land

    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=129127


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    A true beasterly. There will be no valentines day picnics this year according to the 18z!

    It's interesting as that is both the ECM and GFS picking up on a more westward blocking in a little under two weeks, If only.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    A reload for round 2:)

    gfs-2012013118-1-324.png?18?18

    I would love this to happen for Valentines Day. A nice walk in the snow hand in hand.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 197 ✭✭Eastcoastryan


    Dear me ,

    Are we going to have to do this all again ,

    Another Easterly on the Horizon far far far far far out in FI land

    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=129127




    I ain't taking a ticket for this rollercoaster... I'm out! My heart couldn't handle it!


  • Registered Users Posts: 117 ✭✭srocliffe


    That chart is a thing of beauty, and goes a very small way to help counteract the absolute wretchedness of the 18z run as regards what comes before this.

    However hard to get excited when even +72h has been very unreliable this week, never mind +324h, but I suppose it at least keeps some hope alive.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    I ain't taking a ticket for this rollercoaster... I'm out! My heart couldn't handle it!

    Thats what I said the first time round , and Im still here 3.5 years later


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    How strong is the block in this chart ???

    1050mb over Greenland and stretching towards Russia with a 1060Mb
    Nearly makes the last couple of model runs a distant memory to me :D

    gfsnh-2012013118-0-384.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Dear me ,

    Are we going to have to do this all again ,

    Another Easterly on the Horizon far far far far far out in FI land
    no thanks,after this easterly fiasco id rather what we got in 2010 a good N/NE spell


  • Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    I'd rather gouge my own eyes out with hot teaspoons than go through the past weeks model watching again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 117 ✭✭srocliffe


    delw wrote: »
    no thanks,after this easterly fiasco id rather what we got in 2010 a good N/NE spell

    Well luckily for you then, what's showing up in these FI charts is just that, a NE flow :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    It was stressful alright, I've heard greenie highs are a lot easier for the models to handle so if something does start brewing their in the next week hopefully it won't be so rough a rollercoaster.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    There was a time long ago when cigarettes had to carry a government health warning about the serious long term risks of smoking them.

    Have to wonder if it isn't time we started putting something similar on these charts, the damage they are doing to things like blood pressure and stress levels is not funny, not at all:D

    It's not a roller coaster, they keep going forward at about the same speed, this is more like that staircase thing in Florida. goes up slowly for what seems like for ever, then all of a sudden, it drops like a stone, and you don't know how soon it's going to stop and go up again. :p:p

    How mant times have people said "Game over", and then within a few hours even, the charts are hanging all manner of potential snowmageddon over us.

    Times like this, I'm glad I've got my own private lamp post I can stare at, at least I can turn it off so that I don't get even more dissapointed :D:D:D

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    I'd rather gouge my own eyes out with hot teaspoons than go through the past weeks model watching again.

    My sentitments exactly. I have spent the past couple of weeks checking the models on a daily basis. I was really hopeful of a decent cold spell for Ireland. The result? A few frosts, no snow and the mild Atlantic muck to win out at the weekend :mad:

    MT's forecast this morning does not inspire enthusiasm either for cold lovers - mild next week with highs of 9-12oC. We could be back in October!

    I think I will pass on the next rollercoaster ride. In my mind, the snow chances for Ireland this winter have all but gone. :(

    D


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Its alright lads, I found this !! :p;):D:pac:

    cfs-2-990_jik1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    And only 6 weeks away too!! :) looks like my prediction of +15C by St Patrick's Day could be about to fall apart! :eek: that wouldn't be a bad thing though if that chart came off mid-March :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Hay Su ,

    Have you any thoughts on how you think things might play out after mid month ?

    Are the teleconections pointing towards northern blocking ?

    Interested to hear your views after the great call on how this cold snap would play out and what your feelings are for the mild interlude to maybe midmonth .


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Not a lot of support or model consensus for this, but thought it may be interesting if this scenario came off next week, very brief event though if it did happen! - not too far into FI... :)

    191038.png

    191039.png

    preceded during the night by this:
    191040.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    CFS always cheers me up !

    cfs-2-342_sen0.png

    cfs-2-432_tuz5.png


  • Subscribers Posts: 8,322 ✭✭✭Scubadevils


    I recall someone saying back in about November that CFS was showing cold for most of Feb and nothing really prior to that, it may turn out to be correct!


  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    A reload for round 2:)

    gfs-2012013118-1-324.png?18?18
    and then this[IMG]http://62.89.145.4/charts/18_300_uksnowdepth.png?dt=14January 20061218:42[/IMG]


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Jaysus, that'd be one for the record books. The only part of the country with snow would be..........


    WATERFORD !!!

    :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    If this came about Ireland and the UK would get epic snowfall. Huge battleground over both countries

    epicsnowfall.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    WE all like to see a slice of heaven ever now and again :D :rolleyes: :D

    191300.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Some more pretty colours from Canadian model. 2 m anomaly temp in F


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    redsunset wrote: »
    Some more pretty colours from Canadian model. 2 m anomaly temp in F

    191305.png

    Is this anomaly from a certain time scale in overall winter or just the last week.

    Ireland looks very very chilly


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Top of image, 138 hours ahead


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    redsunset wrote: »
    Top of image, 138 hours ahead

    Yeah I seen that , but an anomaly is usually,

    Option A was this cold in January

    Option B will be this cold in February,

    The anomaly is the difference in the two so in this chart are we to take it that the 06/02/12 will be -10 to -17 degrees cold than the 03/02/12 ?

    Ive made that seem really complicated when it prob isnt !


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Below normal temps for said period.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Surely its just comparing the projected temperature with the average for this time of year? Going for about 6C below average in Ireland if that's the case


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Harps wrote: »
    Surely its just comparing the projected temperature with the average for this time of year? Going for about 6C below average in Ireland if that's the case

    The green is a -9 , the white is -16/-17 and the purple is -18/-19

    Has -9 on green if you look closely at it


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