Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Monday, 16 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Periods of rain, moderate and briefly heavy will continue for a few hours across Leinster while ending soon in Munster. Further north, much lighter showers will come and go, but eventually most regions should see brighter weather by afternoon as any showers become very isolated. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mms are possible in Leinster and 1-3 mms most other regions. Highs around 18 C except 15-16 C in coastal north.

TONIGHT ... Fog patches, humid, isolated showers. Lows 9-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud south, warm and humid with occasional showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Rainfalls quite variable, possibly 15-30 mms in a few spots southwest, central and northeast, probably more like 5-10 mms northwest and southeast counties with highs 18-22 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Further heavy showers and risk of thunderstorms especially across Ulster, inland Connacht and north Leinster. Rainfalls 20-40 mms possible in these regions, but more dispersed and variable rainfalls further south, 10-15 mms on average. Some sunny intervals further south, fresh westerly winds developing, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and turning cooler with further showers (5-10 mms) in a northwest wind of 20-35 mph at times, highs 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers becoming mostly confined to parts of north central and southwest, highs near 18 C.

OUTLOOK ... A more settled spell may begin to develop, expect some coastal low cloud and fog, drizzle in west at times, but hazy sunshine with cloudy intervals further east, rather warm inland and east coast with highs to about 21-23 C by Sunday. Beyond the weekend it may become rather warm for a few days with potential for highs into the mid 20s. It all depends on how far north a strong ridge of high pressure drifts, conditions would become especially warm if the ridge axis reaches or passes a Dublin-Shannon line.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Outbreaks of rain and thunderstorms in several parts of central and western Canada with highs around 22-25 C. Showers and thunderstorms moving into the upper Great Lakes, hot and humid most of the Great Lakes and northeast regions, highs to 33 C with isolated thunderstorms again. Similar in the Midwest trending to exceptionally hot again in parts of the central plains states. Frequent showers across the Gulf coast states. Hot and dry southwest, warm and seasonable in Pacific northwest and variable cloud with isolated storms near west coast B.C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday had extensive low cloud and drizzle at first with a marine layer, then the sun tried to poke through at times by afternoon with highs near 22 C. Isolated thunderstorms around the region at present time.

Today's cloud picture is simply "cirro-cumulus" from June 2007 around these parts.

UPDATE ... Tuesday, 17 July, 20:00h IST
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The ALERT is maintained for locally heavy or severe thunderstorms in the next 18 hour period with tomorrow mid-day being the peak of probability for this to develop. Details follow ...

TONIGHT will continue warm and humid with outbreaks of thundery rain possible in the southwest and later across parts of the northwest. In general, this activity is not expected to be too intense and rainfalls of 10-15 mms may develop in some parts of Ulster and west Munster.

TOMORROW (Wednesday) the latest guidance suggests development of two clusters of heavy rain with embedded severe thunderstorms possible. These will track across the southern (inland) counties from mid-Kerry to around the Wexford-Wicklow border, and the north-central counties from about north Mayo to Meath respectively. In each case the risk of severe storm development would likely peak as these clusters track from central to eastern portions and there will also be some tendency for other storms to develop in between these clusters around Kildare and Dublin. Some places affected can expect 20-30 mms rain, hail, strong wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, and even the slight risk of a weak tornado (F0-1).

Tomorrow morning's forecast will update the latest guidance available on these potentials for all regions. I may update around midnight if there is anything significantly different to report.

Update _ Wed 18 July 4:00 p.m.
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ALERT for possible severe storm developing in next hour across north Westmeath and south Meath, moving southeast (or towards Athboy and Trim) at about 30-40 knots. Possible strong winds to 60 mph and hail, slight risk tornado, brief torrential rainfalls of 20-30 mms. This is being closely watched, further alerts if likely to proceed as far as Dublin region. Approximate timing 4:20 pm Athboy, 4:45 pm Trim, 5-6 pm Maynooth to Dublin. Track is likely to be 5-10 miles wide. Other more localized severe thundershowers could develop mainly to south of this track.

Briefly, thanks to all who have visited and pushed the count over one million. It would have to be a severe weather day.

Thursday, 19 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks developing, showers more isolated than past two days, some places dry (south, east more likely) ... rainfalls where they occur 2-5 mms ... highs 17-18 C ... NW breezes of 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, chilly, mist or fog patches in valleys. Lows inland about 4-7 C, coastal and urban areas 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, just a slight chance of isolated showers in north, highs 16-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, a bit warmer during the day, morning lows 5 to 8 C then highs about 19-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, warmer. Low cloud, fog or drizzle may affect some outer coasts south and west. Lows 7-9 C and highs 20-22C.

MONDAY ... Showers developing in some western districts, but partly cloudy and warm elsewhere, highs 22-25 C (except 19-21 C west, north coasts).

OUTLOOK ... Most of next week looks dry and warmer especially away from the south coast which could see onshore breezes and low cloud, fog at times. Details are yet to be confirmed, it may become very warm, or there could be a slight influx of cooler air before this very warm spell gets more established (depends on where the ridge sets up and whether there is a weakness in it, some models are suggesting a weak tropical storm-like feature near the Azores which could allow the subtropical high to swell up over Ireland and the U.K.). Some maps look very warm and could see highs into the 28-30 C range well inland.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread in the Great Lakes, Ohio valley and southeast U.S. while cooler and drier air works its way a bit further south into the northeastern states although it will still be quite warm at 29-31 C. Dry and warm across much of the central region, with isolated storms in western Canada in a warm and humid southwest flow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday started cloudy with drizzle but then became sunny and rather warm with a high around 23 C.

Saturday, 21 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, mainly over south and east at first, with light showers possible this morning in Mayo, Sligo, Donegal and nearby portions of Leitrim, Derry. That's a warm front activating on its way to Scotland, meanwhile other parts of Ireland will turn warmer during the day in a light to moderate southerly wind, with highs 18-21 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, hazy or misty, low cloud near west coast may bring drizzle or fog. Lows 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Warm and humid, muggy, with low cloud or sea fog drifting inland at times south and west coasts, trending to elevated fog, stratus layers breaking to hazy sunshine further inland. Highs 18-20 C near the coasts and about 21-24 C inland, east coast (except where sea breezes push in from southeast). Light rain will slowly extend further east and 1-3 mms could fall in western and northern counties.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, warm and muggy, patchy light rain at first should begin to break to isolated showers, lows 12-16 C and highs 21-25 C except 17-19 C near some coasts with local fog or mist.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, isolated showers mainly west and north, warm and muggy. Lows 12-16 C and highs 22-26 C except 18-20 C near some coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued warm with sunny intervals, stronger sea breezes from Irish Sea as winds become more easterly, allowing the west coast to warm up further, highs 22-26 C warmest near west coast and inland, central.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... There is some chance of the warm spell continuing, but the model consensus indicates slight or perhaps moderate cooling in a northeast wind flow, models diverge on how strong this cooling trend might become, but expect at least a slight drop in temperatures in most regions and a sharp drop in Ulster and coastal Leinster, highs typically 18-21 C south and west, to 14-17 C Ulster and near 18 C Dublin, variable cloud northeast to sunny intervals southwest, isolated showers developing north and east. Some models have more of a showery solution with moderate winds reaching 15-30 mph, but it may not be that big a change.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The following weekend may see a slight improvement back towards warmer temperatures as this northeast flow relaxes and the ridge edges back closer to Ireland after being pushed away to the west. This is tentative, but would expect some sunshine and highs around 22 C in this pattern, trending to more cloud and 18 C north/east, in light to moderate NE breezes but variable near coasts.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The most severe heat is now back where it started about a month ago, in Colorado and western Kansas, with more seasonable warmth in the east, as heavy showers fade out early this morning over parts of the mid-Atlantic states. Heavy storms in parts of the Gulf coast region where it is very humid. Also heavy storms at times in Alberta and inland British Columbia, mainly settled but warm across the central prairies and northern plains states, and a few isolated storms moving through the upper Great Lakes along a weak frontal boundary. Temperatures on both sides of that weak front are in the 25-29 C range daytime although much cooler locally near chilly Lake Superior which has 16-18 C water temps.

MTC's LOCAL (Vancouver, B.C.) FORECAST ... New readers may wonder why I post this, but a long time ago the regular readers asked me to give a brief summary each day of my weather for comparison ... our climate is not vastly different from Ireland although the summer tends to be sunnier and a bit warmer here ... but Friday was cloudy with morning thunderstorms then light rain or drizzle, highs near 18 C. Severe storms then developed further inland. This has been perhaps the stormiest summer in many years across B.C. and Alberta and we have not been in the severe heat although at times it has been warmer than average recently.

Don't forget the Cloud Festival, see thread on this forum ... today's cloud picture is a sunset shot from Utah last August.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer at bottom of each daily post.

Monday, 23 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, warm and humid. There may be brief sunny or at least brighter intervals in a few places especially in the southeast and southwest. Highs generally 18-21 C but could reach 23 to 25 C in some places like Wicklow and 22 C inland southwest. Rainfalls generally not very heavy, 2-5 mms in some places, notably north Mayo, Donegal and parts of central Ulster, trace to 2 mms more likely further south and east. Southwest breezes becoming light and variable by afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy and very muggy with lows only 13-17 C. Some drizzle or light rain persisting in north, west.

TUESDAY ... Warm and humid with morning drizzle slowly clearing away to partly cloudy with highs reaching 22-25 C away from cooler south and west coasts where 16-19 C. Winds rather light and variable except for 10-15 mph onshore sea breezes. There may be an interval of heavier showers in north Connacht and Ulster around late afternoon and evening, potential for some thunder with this, and 10-15 mms rain locally.

WEDNESDAY ... Coastal low cloud, fog or drizzle, but many places brighter with some warm sunshine at times, lows 12-16 C and highs 22-25 C (18-21 closer to south coast). Very light easterly flow could lead to some drifting fog near east coast but this might not come very far inland, if at all.

THURSDAY ... The warmer weather could hold on in parts of south, central and southwest in partly to mostly cloudy weather, but turning cooler mid-day to afternoon or evening in Ulster and parts of north Leinster, inland Connacht as winds pick up from a north-westerly direction. A few showers could develop along a cold front by afternoon and evening across western counties, before which highs may reach 22-24 C south, but temperatures could be held to 20 C in central counties with 14-17 C in Ulster.

OUTLOOK FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Generally cooler again with scattered showers developing, and some risk of a more prolonged interval of rain, as low pressure may develop in the cooler northerly flow. Highs only 15-18 C through this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a slight rebound in temperatures early next week towards 20-22 C in variable cloud and isolated showers.

Forecasts for U.K.

TODAY & TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, a few showers in most central and northern parts including most of Wales, north Midlands, but sunny intervals and very warm in southeast and some distance north into Midlands, even south Yorkshire. Highs will range from 22-24 C in north (16-19 C near west coast of Scotland) to 25-29 C southeast England, 21-24 C Wales and inland northern England except near 17 C western coasts. Some rainfalls of 10-15 mms in parts of southern Scotland and northern England, mainly over higher ground, 2-5 mms on lower terrain.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trend to Ireland, warm with some sunshine at times mid-week, turning cooler in Scotland late Wednesday and in northern England on Thursday, but in Wales and southern England, staying warm until late Thursday or closer to London perhaps Friday ... highs could reach 24-28 C mid-week and even higher in south central England (27-31 C inland) ... then falling to about 18-21 C later in the week and next weekend, moderate N to NW winds and showers developing.

Forecasts for North America

Many central and eastern regions have now seen a welcome change from severe heat to more seasonable July heat, with weak frontal systems bringing a few rather isolated thunderstorms. Highs generally 29-33 C. More widespread showers in parts of the Gulf coast. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are moving across B.C. towards Alberta, the rest of western Canada is generally settled and warm. Highs only 17-20 C in B.C. and Washington state due to extensive cloud, showers. Much warmer further east and south.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Vancouver, B.C.) ... Sunday was a mostly cloudy day with showers around the region although it stayed totally dry at my location until almost 10 p.m. when showers began. Heavy storms further east. It was chilly for mid-July with highs only about 16-18 C.

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Disclaimer: Boards.ie and members posting in this thread offer weather forecasts on the basis of caveat emptor and in legal terms for entertainment of the reader; base any important or potentially safety-sensitive decisions on a full range of official weather information and not solely on information contained herein. These forecasts are not designed for use in aviation. Forecasts may not always be updated, and various contributors to the thread, while experienced in weather forecasting through forum activity, may not have professional training in meteorology. Boards.ie and its participating members will not be legally responsible to users of these forecasts for any reason.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer at bottom of each daily post.

Wednesday, 25 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Coastal low cloud, fog or drizzle, but many places becoming brighter with some warm sunshine at times, highs 21-23 C (18-21 closer to south coast). Very light easterly flow could lead to some drifting fog near east coast but this might not come very far inland, if at all. There could also be thick sea fog near outer headlands of the north coast as well as some local light rain or drizzle there. South coast may have intervals of fog and hazy sunshine as winds gradually shift. In general, with such slack winds, weather conditions may well be quite different in nearby locations, as there is not much to shift low-level moisture very far. There will be a tendency for the weather to improve most in the west relative to recent days.

TONIGHT ... Widespread fog, mist, and low cloud, some clear patches remaining, and lows 11-14 C.

THURSDAY ... The warmer weather could hold on in parts of south, central and southwest in partly to mostly cloudy weather, but turning cooler mid-day to afternoon or evening in Ulster and parts of north Leinster, inland Connacht as winds pick up from a north-westerly direction. A few showers could develop along a cold front by afternoon and evening across western counties, before which highs may reach 22-24 C south, but temperatures could be held to 19-21 C in central counties with 14-17 C in Ulster.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and considerably cooler with passing showers, sunny intervals. Winds NW to N 20-30 mph, morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs about 15 C north to 18 C south.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and cool, lows 6-10 C and highs 15-18 C, passing showers mainly western and northern counties. Rainfalls slight for most, 1-3 mms on average. Winds NW 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, cool, showers may become longer intervals of rain in parts of Ulster, north Connacht. Lows 7-10 C and highs about 15-17 C. Less risk of rain in south, amounts likely to vary from 10-15 mms north to 0-3 mms south.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Showers or light rain on Monday, then a gradual improvement mid-week, but staying rather cool with only faint signs of a return to warmer temperatures well on into the two-week outlook period.

Forecasts for U.K.

TODAY & TONIGHT ... Little change from previous days, with sunny and quite warm weather in southern and parts of central England, south Wales, more cloud further north. Only slight rainfalls in this cloudy area today and a few breaks are likely to develop. This will allow temperatures in the north to rise slightly especially inland, to 20-23 C in places, but 17-20 C near the coasts. In the south, it will once again reach 27-30 C except 22-25 C near the southwest coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Continued similar trend to Ireland, warm with some sunshine at times Thursday and even on Friday in the south, turning cooler in Scotland late Wednesday and in northern England on Thursday, with scattered showers mainly in western districts ... highs could reach 27-31 C tomorrow and 23-27 C on Friday in the London area, but otherwise closer to 20 C by Friday ... then falling to about 18-21 C next weekend, moderate N to NW winds and more widespread showers developing . The weekend may stay largely dry in parts of southern England but will be wet in the north and especially in Scotland where it will be only about 15 C. The further outlook is for unsettled and rather cool weather early next week with a slight warming trend during the week, but only back to around 20-22 C at most.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls and severe storms likely in parts of upper Midwest, western Great Lakes. Seasonably warm most eastern states, southern Ontario. Hot and humid over the plains states with highs 37-42 C. Somewhat cooler than recent days in western Canada but drying out in Alberta, B.C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Vancouver, B.C.) ... Tuesday was cloudy until mid-afternoon, although dry, then it turned sunny and warmed up to about 22 C after sitting around 17 C under the cloud.

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Disclaimer: Boards.ie and members posting in this thread offer weather forecasts on the basis of caveat emptor and in legal terms for entertainment of the reader; base any important or potentially safety-sensitive decisions on a full range of official weather information and not solely on information contained herein. These forecasts are not designed for use in aviation. Forecasts may not always be updated, and various contributors to the thread, while experienced in weather forecasting through forum activity, may not have professional training in meteorology. Boards.ie and its participating members will not be legally responsible to users of these forecasts for any reason.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 27 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and considerably cooler with passing showers, more frequent in the north and northwest, and sunny intervals, more frequent in the east and south. Winds increasing later this morning to NW 20-30 mph, and afternoon highs about 15 C north to 18 C south. Rainfalls generally slight but could amount to 3-5 mms in parts of Ulster especially near the Antrim coast.

TONIGHT ... Frequent showers north, moderate NW winds and lows 7-9 C. Partly cloudy to overcast, isolated showers south, lows 6-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and cool, with highs 15-18 C, passing showers more frequent and heavier in western and northern counties. Rainfalls slight for most, 1-3 mms on average, possibly 5-8 mms in parts of Ulster and Connacht. Some of the heavier showers are likely in the morning with a trough droppping southward. Winds NW 20-35 mph. Some sunshine at times in south, likely to be overcast further north.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, cool, showers may become longer intervals of rain in parts of Ulster, north Connacht. Lows 7-10 C and highs about 15-17 C. Less risk of rain in south, amounts likely to vary from 10-15 mms north to 0-3 mms south.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain, highs near 15 C, chilly -- could be somewhat better in north as rain will be heavier near south coast. Rain and fog may clear later in the day in the southwest as somewhat warmer air around 18 C moves slowly north.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Tuesday may see the rain continuing to drift further north with a gradual warming trend to follow; slightly unsettled later in the week, with the greatest threat of rain in western counties, temperatures should return almost to normal late July or early August values.

Forecasts for U.K.

TODAY & TONIGHT ... Friday warm and humid in the southeast with scattered showers, one or two heavy thunderstorms possible even around the opening of the Olympics, moving across the Channel from France during afternoon and moving into London during the late afternoon and evening; highs near 24 C. Further west and north in south-central England, mostly cloudy, a few isolated showers or brief thunderstorms, highs 21-23 C. Midlands and Wales cloudy with showers and highs 19-21 C, and cooler further north with highs of only 13-16 C in Scotland. ...

OUTLOOK ... The weekend may stay largely dry in parts of southern England but will be wet in the north and especially in Scotland where it will be only about 15 C. The further outlook is for unsettled and rather cool weather early next week with a slight warming trend during the week, but only back to around 20-22 C at most.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy showers and thunderstorms moving slowly south into the southeast states, followed by somewhat cooler weather moving in from the Great Lakes region where today likely to be partly cloudy with isolated showers, highs in the 24-27 C range. Still rather hot in the central plains states, seasonably warm across western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Vancouver, B.C.) ... Thursday was sunny and warm with a lot of haze and highs around 25 C.



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Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 29 July, 2012____________________________________________

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frequent showers and rather cool, with some brighter intervals this morning in east and south, but eventually most places will have a shower or two, with accumulations of about 5 mms on average. It will be quite cool for late July with winds NW 15-30 mph, and highs about 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Gradually clearing as showers die out, cool ... lows 6-9 C. Winds falling off to calm inland.

MONDAY ... Sunny to start especially in eastern counties, then increasing cloud, some rain by afternoon or evening mainly in west Munster, a bit warmer especially for east coast, with afternoon highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Some rain at times, heavier west and north, 10-20 mms possible there, foggy over hills in Connacht and Ulster. Lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C. Rather gusty southeast to south winds affecting coastal regions of south and west, later east coast. Some gusts to 35-40 mph possible.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers and a risk of gusty winds developing in Connacht and Ulster, from SW to W at 20-40 mph (and possibly higher gusts in coastal locations). Somewhat better conditions for east and south coasts with a bit more sunshine in the mix there, morning lows 11-13 C and highs about 17 C. Rainfalls likely to average about 10-15 mms, heavier in Connacht.

THURSDAY ... Still rather unsettled but possibly less frequent showers in more of a partly cloudy regime, lows 8-11 C and highs 15-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather unsettled and perhaps a degree or two below normal in temperatures ... from Friday (3 Aug) to Monday (6 Aug) it seems likely to remain about 17-19 C by day with showery rainfalls, and then a faint prospect of warmer weather returning for a while in the following week to ten days.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be rather cloudy in most places although some sunshine at times in the southeast, with frequent showers and some thunder or hail possible in western and central to northern England, parts of Wales and most of Scotland. These showers will not be absent from the southeast but more isolated and some places could remain dry. Highs 19-22 C southeast, trending cooler further west and north, to about 17 C (14 C northern Scotland).

TONIGHT will be cloudy with showers in most regions and lows from 10-13 C in the south, trending to about 7-10 C further north.

OUTLOOK is unchanged ... variable with some showers mostly western and northern districts almost each day and longer dry intervals with some sunshine despite a lot of cloud for the south and east. Highs all week likely to be in the cool to comfortable range of 17-20 C. Wednesday and Thursday look particularly wet for Scotland and some parts of Wales and northern England. Towards the end of the week, some heavy to severe storms could impact the Olympic Games sites in the southeast (realizing that there are a few outside that zone).

North American forecasts

Seasonably warm in the east, a few more thunderstorms in mid-Atlantic states and western Great Lakes regions, highs generally 29-33 C. Showery across western Canada with some severe thunderstorms developing mostly in SK and w MB, spilling over into parts of Montana and North Dakota. Rather widespread "monsoon" storms in the higher parts of the southwest, hot and dry in some valleys and desert zones.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Saturday) was sunny with a high near 22 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 31 July, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some rain at times, generally spreading north and lasting several hours before tapering off to drizzle or light showers in the south, 10-20 mms possible in most regions but with a later start, 3-7 mms in most of Ulster. Foggy over hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs near 17 C in most regions but 14-16 C west coast. Rather gusty southeast to south winds affecting coastal regions of south and west, later east coast. Some gusts to 35-40 mph possible. Otherwise breezy and becoming very humid later in the day.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming more confined to north and east, 5-8 mms further accumulation, some heavier showers possible in north Donegal (but mostly offshore), foggy or misty across central and southern counties, mild. Lows about 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers and a risk of gusty winds developing in Connacht and Ulster, from SW to W at 20-40 mph (and possibly higher gusts in coastal locations). Also, an interval of heavier showers in Leinster by mid-day with risk of a thunderstorm in the Dublin region. Somewhat better conditions for south and southwest coasts with a bit more sunshine in the mix there, highs about 17-19 C in most regions, warmest around Limerick. Rainfalls likely to average about 10-15 mms, heavier in north Connacht, west Munster and east coast.

THURSDAY ... Still rather unsettled but possibly less frequent showers in more of a partly cloudy regime, winds remaining blustery in parts of the west, but staying south to southwest as the low begins to circle around west of Donegal Bay. Quite variable conditions by afternoon with isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms but also some sunny intervals. lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, seasonable temperatures if not a little below average. Lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

WEEKEND ... There are two theories of how the weekend might turn out from the available guidance, which could be summarized as poor and mixed. The "poor" option comes about from the low tracking directly across Ireland in its dying stages with considerable cloud, frequent showers and depressed temperatures. The "moderate" option could develop if the low circles around to the south and leaves Ireland in more of a weak easterly flow which could allow for some longer dry intervals and less frequent showers, all of which would allow temperatures to stay a bit milder. The options are probably in the range of 16 to 19 C for maximum temperatures, and 10 to 30 mms rainfall on average, so it's not a vast difference. Splitting the difference, we could say partly to mostly cloudy with occasional showers, highs 17-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather unsettled into the following week although showers may be somewhat brief and isolated for much of the time, temperatures in the 17-20 C range by day. Models are currently backing away from any return to really warm weather such as was seen briefly last week.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be overcast in most regions with outbreaks of light rain, the longest dry spells will be in Yorkshire and the northeast, and much of Scotland where some sunshine may begin the day. Highs will be about 18 C in most regions, a bit cooler in higher parts of Wales with low cloud and hill fog, and perhaps a bit higher in the Edinburgh and Newcastle regions.

TONIGHT will see further misty light rain and fog, lows near 12 C. Rainfalls in total will only be about 5-10 mms in many regions as the heavier falls stay in Ireland until Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY could see heavy showers and thunderstorms especially in the western parts of England and most of Wales, towards late afternoon and evening, with highs 17-18 C. Further east it could be partly cloudy at times between passing showers, and about 20 C. Further north, outbreaks of light rain and for the far north, fog and low cloud, highs 15-17 C.

OUTLOOK is for rather cloudy weather and becoming more settled towards Friday in eastern counties, as it stays more frequently showery in the west, temperatures generally in the 17-19 C range by day (20-22 C southeast England). Slight risk of heavy thunderstorms towards end of the week and weekend in the south. The weekend is likely to be more cloudy than sunny with isolated showers and temperatures not far from normal, highs 19-23 C.

North American forecasts

Severe storms likely in Michigan and Ontario today from a slow-moving frontal wave. Sunny and hot further east and south, except for a separate area of heavy rain moving up the Carolina coast towards southeast Virginia. Also stormy again in parts of western Canada, and across the upper Midwest, as a new disturbance forms in South Dakota-Iowa. More settled and warm near the west coast, continued scattered monsoonal thunderstorms southwest higher elevations. Phoenix has been seeing almost daily "haboobs" or sandstorms from (nearly) dry thunderstorms moving northwest from higher terrain into the lowlands known as the Valley of the Sun (more like the Valley of the Sand at this time of year). Sometimes these storms can create zero visibility on interstate highways in that region from blowing sand.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Monday) was cloudy with a bit of sun at times later in the day, and several degrees cooler than the weekend at about 18 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 2 August, 2012
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Astronomy note: Full moon occurred earlier today at 0429h IST.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some intervals of sunshine this morning in west, partly to mostly cloudy elsewhere, showers developing but heaviest in south central counties then later these will move north towards Longford and surrounding counties, with the risk of a few isolated heavy thunderstorms. Rainfalls generally 3-7 mms but could reach 20-30 mms in a few of these central districts. Some places on the other hand could remain dry all day. Highs 16-19 C with moderate south winds tending to back to SE later. Gusty winds could develop around intense shower cells but otherwise mainly 10-15 mph.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, a few showers, mild, foggy in places, lows around 10 to 12 C, some rainfalls of 2-4 mms.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, and risk of some heavier thundery showers in the south, later moving north towards central Leinster, Dublin area, some rainfalls of 10-20 mms in these, otherwise 5-10 mms. Highs will range between 16 and 19 C. Winds continuing to back SE to E as the low begins to drift across the south, gradually weakening as it goes.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or a few periods of light rain, some tendency for improvement across northwest and later other parts of the west as the disturbed weather begins to redevelop over Britain with the drifting low. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms possible in southeast, less elsewhere. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers more isolated, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers in a few places, but some other places dry with longer intervals of sunshine, rain spreading in by evening from west. Lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some further showers at times, but a chance of a warmer interval developing later next week.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, any morning sunshine will fade behind thickening higher cloud, and there will be outbreaks of rain by afternoon and evening, generally about 5-10 mms. Highs near 21 C south, 17 C central and 14-16 C northern England, Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Showers, mild, some fog developing, lows 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK is for rather cloudy weather and becoming more settled towards Friday in eastern counties, as it stays more frequently showery in the west, temperatures generally in the 17-19 C range by day (20-22 C southeast England). Slight risk of heavy thunderstorms towards end of Friday and into the first half of the weekend in the south. The rest of the weekend is likely to be more cloudy than sunny with isolated showers and temperatures not far from normal, highs 19-23 C. The longer term is subject to the same uncertainty as Ireland, with some prospect of a warmer, dry spell developing towards 8th-15th August but a risk of heavy rain or thunderstorms in south central and southwest England.

North American forecasts

A near-perfect summer day for the lower Great Lakes and inland northeast, Ohio valley, highs near 30 C. Heavy showers and thunderstorms developing across the central plains states, Midwest, with the remnants of the severe heat and drought holding on in parts of the mid-south, then heavy showers in the southeast and parts of Florida. Hot in the southwest and seasonably warm in far west, while another in a seemingly endless series of Pacific fronts assaults parts of interior B.C. and Alberta (having perhaps the worst summer in ages across these regions, not so bad on the coast where I am). Severe storms today in Alberta will begin to evolve into a complex of very heavy rainfalls for SK-eMT-wND-swMB on Friday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Wednesday) was sunny and 21 C with a cooling sea breeze and afternoon high cloud becoming almost a total overcast by evening. Light southerly winds.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 4 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT posted for locally intense showers or thunderstorms developing over parts of the inland east and southeast, most likely in regions between Cork and Dublin although more focussed on the inland southeast in counties such as Laois, Carlow, Kilkenny and nearby portions of surrounding counties. Here, some rather slow-moving downpours with intense thunder and lightning could develop and lead to local spot flooding due to 20-30 mm downpours that may not move away very rapidly due to the current dynamics of the weakening system that is drifting east across southern regions. The cities of Dublin and Cork as well as Waterford and Wexford are more or less on the edge of this risk zone and could be affected although towns further inland are probably more at risk of urban flooding as this kind of activity sometimes builds up on sea breeze boundaries and the kind of uplift that might develop near higher inland hills.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers or a few periods of light rain, some tendency for improvement across northwest and later other parts of the west as the disturbed weather begins to redevelop over Britain with the drifting low. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms possible in southeast where one or two places could have a thundery downpour (see alert above), lesser amounts elsewhere and quite dry much of the time in some west coast locations and parts of Ulster. Highs near 16-17 C with winds tending to back to northeast then north 10-15 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, a few lingering showers mainly south and east, mild with lows 9-12 C. Fog patches in valleys and over hills.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny at times, showers more isolated, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C in light to moderate NW winds. There might be one or two isolated heavy showers near the east coast and some distance inland, but many places further west and north could have a dry day as the areal coverage of any showers will be something like 5-10% of the country. Sunshine could be as much as 7-10 hours in parts of the west.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers in a few places, but some other places dry with longer intervals of sunshine (8-12 hours possible), patchy light rain spreading in by evening or midnight from west. Lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain southwest spreading further east, somewhat lighter rainfalls than with recent disturbances, 5-10 mms on average, north may stay largely dry, highs around 17 C.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY ... We remain hopeful that another warm spell could develop and with some sunshine highs might reach 23 C or a bit higher in a few spots. This does not appear likely to become a set pattern for more than four days as, like a week ago, the warm spell breaks down as the ridge splits and allows the Atlantic to "drive the car" again. It would then become variable with near normal temperatures and occasionally showery frontal passages mid-month (after this warm spell comes and goes).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, showers becoming more frequent, some heavy thundery downpours by mid-day (west central) or later (eastern counties) with highs generally 18-21 C throughout Britain, possibly 22-23 C in a few places in the southeast and East Anglia. Rainfalls 10-30 mms possible.

TONIGHT ... Further showers and brief thunder showers, lows 11-14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud with some heavy or severe thunderstorms possible, trending more to partly cloudy with isolated showers further north, longer intervals of sunshine in parts of Cumbria and western Scotland. Highs generally 18-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Several more unsettled days Monday to Wednesday, heavier rain in south than elsewhere, cool with highs 17-19 C. Becoming warm or even hot and dry later in the week, highs rising to mid to high 20s and near 30 in the southeast. This warm spell or heat wave may coincide with the last few days of the Olympics then more seasonable weather is expected to return.

North American forecasts

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop over Minnesota (MN) and Wisconsin (WI) and spread gradually into Michigan (MI), then this complex will head into south-central Ontario overnight and redevelop there on Sunday.

Hot and humid south of this frontal disturbance, highs 30-33 C. Widespread showers and thunderstorms in the southeast from a weak tropical disturbance east of Florida. Meanwhile, tropical storm Ernesto is racing west across the Caribbean Sea towards the Yucatan and may enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. Landfall speculation is rather vague at present time, I would guess perhaps Texas or northern Mexico but all regions are in play. Meanwhile, a heat wave is developing over the west under a swelling upper ridge and highs will be well into the 30s or lower 40s inland. However, it remains rather cool further east in the Canadian prairies and northern plains states in the wake of the developing storms mentioned at the start (in MN/WI). Cloud is prevalent with a few showers, followed by gradual clearing and highs only 15-20 C in this air mass.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Friday) was sunny and very warm, borderline hot, at about 27 C. Expecting 33 C on the weekend and Monday which is also a holiday here.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 6 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The day will start out rather cloudy and could improve somewhat in the easterm, central and northern counties, where rainfalls should be rather isolated. Highs will be 16-19 C. Across the south, more unsettled with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, 3-5 mms rain possible, highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, drizzle or light rain in some parts of south and west, lows around 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain southwest spreading further east, somewhat lighter rainfalls than with recent disturbances, 5-10 mms on average, north may stay largely dry, highs around 17 C. Some chance of a thunderstorm south-central towards inland southeast by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, warm and increasingly humid, some scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle followed by hazy sunshine in a few parts of the south, lows 12-15 C and highs 18-22 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm. Coastal fog or low cloud, but most places should be bright and sunny with highs possibly reaching 25 C or thereabouts, 18-22 C closer to south and east coasts in weak sea breezes.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The warm spell will break down from the south and there could be heavy showers or even thunderstorms with this on Saturday and more likely on Sunday as the full impact of cooler air is felt. Highs will be about 21 C on Saturday and 17 C on Sunday. Following that, the pattern goes back to the more familiar summer-2012 pattern of slow-moving frontal systems from the west.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers at times for most regions, but only one or two heavier isolated thundershowers. Highs about 21 in the south to 17 C Scotland and Wales, 19 C northern England.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, misty in places, a few patches of light rain or drizzle, lows around 11 C.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY ... Warming up gradually with a lot of cloud, outbreaks of rain that could become thundery in Wales and north-central England, as temperatures rise to 23-26 C in the south, 18-22 C further north.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY ... Hot in most of the south, very warm as far north as parts of Scotland, highs 27-32 C inland, 22-25 C coastal. Showers will develop in Scotland and Wales by about Saturday afternoon/evening and will spread further east.

OUTLOOK ... Turning cooler in stages over the weekend, then back to a rather bland showery pattern again.

North American forecasts

Showers in parts of the coastal northeast, fair and less humid (27 C) in the Great Lakes and inland northeast. Hot and dry in parts of the south central states, isolated storms central plains. Hot and dry across most of the west well north into western Canada, isolated thunderstorms over the central prairies, but highs 33-39 C across much of the region, trending to 45 C in the desert southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Sunday) was sunny and hot, with a high near 32 and Monday is expected to be partly cloudy and about 28 C as a weak push of marine air begins to mix with this hot, dry air mass. As a result, there could be an isolated thunderstorm in view over the nearby mountains although I expect it will remain dry here.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 8 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, warm and increasingly humid, some scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle followed by hazy sunshine in a few parts of the south, and highs 18-22 C. Further rainfalls about 3-5 mms in a few places but mainly trace to 2 mm amounts.

TONIGHT ... Very humid and misty to foggy, some clear intervals especially well inland and over higher terrain. Lows 11-14 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, very warm. Coastal fog or low cloud, but most places should be bright and sunny with highs possibly reaching 25 C or thereabouts, 18-22 C closer to south and east coasts in weak sea breezes. Potential for 27-29 C in west if it remains sunny all day.

FRIDAY NIGHT could have some clear intervals for the folks who want to see the Perseids meteor shower. Cloud will be increasing slowly from the south except for thick low cloud near the south coast. Lows through the warm spell should remain above 10 C although it could briefly drop to 7-9 C just before dawn.

SATURDAY ... Somewhat cooler especially in south and southwest, outbreaks of light rain in west Munster, slight risk of thunderstorms developing west-central to southeast along a slowly advancing front. Highs 22-25 C in north, 18-22 C central, 15-17 C south and southwest.

SATURDAY NIGHT may also have some clear intervals in eastern and northern counties as the push of cooler air may become quite weak, the front could begin to dissipate before redeveloping on Sunday. In general, I would say the chances of clear skies are about 60% on Friday night and 40% on Saturday night in the region near Dublin where observers might be most interested in viewing the Perseids.

SUNDAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, extensive showers or thunderstorms possible, although there may be some places with warm sunshine also. Winds having backed into the southeast may now begin to return to southerly, highs around 20 C in some places, 15-17 C closer to south and west coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Showery or periods of rain developing early next week as temperatures sink back into the high teens (16-18 C). Eventually a more variable showery regime will return.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Periods of rain across the south this morning, foggy, turning warmer with some improvement especially south central and southwest counties, as the rain edges further north. Highs 21-24 C south, 18-21 C central. Variable cloud, highs 16-18 C in northern England and Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Warm and humid in the south, one or two brief showers, lows 14 to 17 C. Fog developing especially near southwest coasts. Cloudy, misty further north, lows 13-15 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals in most regions, very warm to hot, although much cooler close to the North Sea coasts. Highs generally 27-31 C but could be held to 15-18 C close to the North Sea, trending to 23-26 C in northern Scotland inland, 14-16 C coastal.

OUTLOOK ... Staying hot over the weekend in southeast England, showery further west, turning a bit cooler.


North American forecasts

Showers and thunderstorms developing across large parts of western Canada and also western Great Lakes, very warm and humid south of these frontal zones, with further heavy showers in the southeast and Gulf coast regions, hot and dry around OK-AR-TN. Ernesto briefly became a hurricane and hit the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico about 0300h (UTC) and will re-emerge late today into the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche making for a second landfall near Veracruz Mexico later this week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Tuesday) ... We actually had some weather :eek: to report, frequent rather intense thunderstorms developed this evening after a bland, partly cloudy day with a high of 24 C. These storms formed along a weak warm front that stalled through the region and became a sea-breeze convergence boundary. Not much wind or hail reported, but frequent intense lightning and some downpours although it seems like maybe 15 mms at most. It is unusual to see forked lightning in this region, quite often we will go the whole year with just a couple of brief thundershowers embedded in fronts, and this is perhaps the third time in 15 years that I've recorded a proper thunderstorm here. Could see more of this tomorrow as nothing much is moving on the larger scale.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 10 August, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Patchy morning cloud or mist, then hazy sunshine for most places, very warm or hot with highs 23 to 27 C. East coast slightly cooler near the shore, south coast may stay in the low cloud and fog much of the morning but could clear at times to warmer sunshine later, highs 19-22 C. Some high cloud will be dimming the sun at times in the afternoon in west, but strong sunshine in many parts could burn in 20-30 mins without protection.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, especially over higher terrain, low cloud and drizzle may spread inland across south with light rain in parts of Kerry, Cork, Waterford (trace to 2 mms). Lows about 12 C on average. Moderate southeast winds developing in southern counties, rain spreading slowly towards southeast counties by early morning hours.

SATURDAY ... Somewhat cooler especially in south and southwest, outbreaks of light rain in west Munster, slight risk of thunderstorms developing west-central to southeast along a slowly advancing (to northeast) front. Rainfalls of 5-10 mms in some parts of Munster, south Leinster. Continued rather warm in Ulster, east Connacht and north Leinster, with highs 22-25 C in north, 18-22 C central, but only 15-17 C south and southwest.

SATURDAY NIGHT may also have some clear intervals with lows 8-11 C in eastern and northern counties as the push of cooler air may become quite weak, the front could begin to dissipate before redeveloping on Sunday. In general, I would say the chances of clear skies are about 60% on Friday night and 40% on Saturday night in the region near Dublin where observers might be most interested in viewing the Perseids. Sunday night is more likely to be extensively overcast.

SUNDAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, extensive showers or thunderstorms possible, although there may be some places with warm sunshine also. Winds having backed into the southeast may now begin to return to southerly, highs around 21 C in some places, 15-17 C closer to south and west coasts.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY ... Showery with some intervals of heavier rain possible, also a risk of strong SW winds developing with a small but intense low indicated on some model charts moving north to northeast across western counties around Tuesday. Temperatures will remain rather mild especially at night (typically lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The longer term looks relatively warm again, and it's possible that all periods will turn out a bit warmer as the push of cool Atlantic air may be rather weak this time. However, I still think that there is also some chance of a full return to the drab conditions of mid-July. Have seen a few charts in about two weeks that look warm to hot again, so perhaps this month will be a departure from recent years after all.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... I should have mentioned fast moving bolts for Thursday but today is likely to be hot in most places, with any morning cloud or mist rapidly giving way to almost clear skies, just the usual slight cooling near some coasts and in the far north. For almost all other locations in Britain, expect highs 27-32 C and light winds. Some east coast fog and highs 20-23 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy, becoming misty or foggy and close, lows 15-18 C. This will trend to cooler, clear conditions in parts of the inland north with lows 8-12 C in some valleys. Dense fog could develop especially close to east coast.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud west, some late showers or isolated thunderstorms, highs 23-27 C. Sunny again in the east until quite late afternoon or evening, hot with highs 27-30 C. Isolated heavy or severe evening thunderstorms may move north from France. (by the way Friday-Saturday in northern France could reach 35 C).

OUTLOOK ... Staying hot over the weekend in southeast England, showery further west with some heavy thunderstorms developing by Sunday in areas like Bristol and Bournemouth, Salisbury plain, Thames valley; turning a bit cooler especially west of London to Nottingham, but much of next week could stay a little warmer than average with highs 22-24 C. Heavy rains likely at times in Wales and Scotland, northern England mid-week.


North American forecasts

Heavy rainfalls continuing in parts of the lower Great Lakes and inland northeast, 30-60 mms could be recorded in places. Fairly dry in central regions with seasonably warm temperatures, trending to hot further west. Scattered but isolated thunderstorms over Rockies and parts of western Canada. Very hot in the southwest trending to near normal in coastal California due to strong sea breezes. Ernesto will slowly die over Mexico while dropping torrential rains. "Gordon" could form later today or Saturday near Cape Verde, heading for the Caribbean in 4-5 days. Florence came and went without doing much, a remnant low is north of Puerto Rico.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER (Thursday) was sunny and warm, highs near 23 C. About the same as Galway as it turned out.