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Intelligence agencies debunk the media hysteria on Iran

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Siuin wrote: »
    It doesn't look good :(

    I'd say it's great, a good shooting war is just what we want, fuel at €100 a litre and riots and anarchy everywhere.

    They always cause depressions and bubbles to burst and plunge people in desperation prior to war. We've been preparing for war for several years already.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,659 ✭✭✭Siuin


    JustinDee wrote: »
    They're on alert. Its hardly for the first time.

    They've been on alert for the past few months, and have already gone through the drills for when/if something does happen, but this was rather worrying.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,823 ✭✭✭WakeUp


    plasmaguy wrote: »
    While most nuclear armed states have done well to stop proliferation, it's hard to see Iran doing the same, since if it was a direct fight, they would lose any nuclear conflict.

    Nuclear armed states , all of them , are a threat to our very existance and nuclear weapons a freak of science I dont think there is anything well about them or who has them. All nuclear weapons should be disbanded and put beyond use the onus is on the nations who have them to start the process and this in turn will discourage other nations from seeking them. All nations have a responsibility to us as people to get rid of them - no more nations should be allowed develop them including Iran if that's what they intend to do but maybe there wouldn't be a need for that if the nations who already had such devasting life ending power at the finger tips got rid of theirs.
    Nobody is absolved of blame when it comes to nukes not the nations who have them nor the nations that might seek them we need to do away with them before they destroy us.

    In a nuclear conflict all of us lose not just the nations pushing the button, one goes off most if not all of them go off and we all lose.

    People paying attention to what is going on right now with regard to Iran would know full well we have three fully armed ( minus the EU ) nuclear nations making moves at the moment, US, Russia and Israel. This isn't a game its happening. This push toward manufactured war with Iran can not be allowed succeed it just cant there is way too much at stake. There is a reason why many leaders and nations none more so than Russia are warning of dire consequences should an attack on Iran take place.

    In light of the fact a potential strike upon Iran is probably imminent unless enough people speak out against to stop it from happening insane as it would be to go ahead with it, I would like post this video.

    It isnt really relevant to the thread although its content with regard to the nations involved is scarily similar to what is taking place right as we speak and is relevant to the comment Im replying to - we all lose out.

    I believe it should be mandatory viewing for all supporters of war, war mongers and politicians - the people who make war happen. This drama was made in 1984 its a BBC production if you have the time to watch it its a powerful production. Maybe after watching this people who are quick to rally behind calls to arms might think twice in the future. We need men and women of peace running our world not the people who run it at the moment - they want war and destruction and one day they are going to start something if they are allowed continue and none of us will walk away from it.

    This drama is sobering, powerful, depressing, factual and quite brilliant I hope the MOD's will leave it up as its never been more relevant than it is today. We are but the press of a button away from this I hope it changes some peoples mind about starting futile destructive wars at the whim of some politician/s.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 315 ✭✭happyman81


    cyberhog wrote: »
    It's still vaild.

    No it isn't.

    See what I did?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    WakeUp wrote: »
    Nuclear armed states , all of them , are a threat to our very existance ]

    Threads was reportedly responsible already for the disarmament that has taken place since it's production. It was based on the almost inevitability of conflict with the USSR, growing public awareness of dirty nukes as well as escalating arms race and the 'star wars' project led to the collapse of the CCCP.

    We have been primed for another war, that's a certainty, as bad as war is, we'd not have the technology today that we all enjoy, including typing on this internet thingie.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭The Israeli


    We are all gonna die. We are all gonna dieeee ughhh hehhhh

    But first of all, I have to finish taking all my tests for the semester. They will wait. I've talked to them.

    I was thinking about something:
    In my opinion the chosen date of the attack is March 7th. I'll tell you why:
    On this day we celebrate Purim. It's a holiday that symbolizes the victory of the Jews in Persia on the Haman - a Persian minister who wished to kill all the Jews, and Haman's supporters.
    That's why, it's the 7th. Makes sense? :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    This white paper by The Brookings Institute pretty much covers everything anyone needs to know about the military reality of this thing. Here's a link... just sign up to scribd..takes two secs and download the pdf. I read it for the first time a while back and it clarified a lot of things for me anyway. Written by an ex Persian Gulf CIA analyst, an ex ambassador to Israel etc etc people who know what they're on about.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/52444400/Which-Path-to-Persia-Options-for-a-New-American-Strategy-toward-Iran-1999

    anyone wants me to email the pdf just pm me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    Fair play 'Wake up' I second all of that !


    Here is another paper on the subject if anyone is interested is some more intensively boring reading.

    Study on a Possible Israeli Strike
    [FONT=Arial,Bold][FONT=Arial,Bold][FONT=Arial,Bold]
    on Iran’s Nuclear Development [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]Facilities

    http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    This is an article from Global Security Newswire today.

    Israel Would Not Notify U.S. of Impending Iran Attack: Report

    http://www.nti.rsvp1.com/gsn/article/israel-would-not-warn-us-impending-iran-attack-official/?mgh=http://www.nti.org&mgf=1


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,334 ✭✭✭RichieC


    This white paper by The Brookings Institute pretty much covers everything anyone needs to know about the military reality of this thing. Here's a link... just sign up to scribd..takes two secs and download the pdf. I read it for the first time a while back and it clarified a lot of things for me anyway. Written by an ex Persian Gulf CIA analyst, an ex ambassador to Israel etc etc people who know what they're on about.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/52444400/Which-Path-to-Persia-Options-for-a-New-American-Strategy-toward-Iran-1999

    anyone wants me to email the pdf just pm me.

    It just opened for me, no sign up required.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭The Israeli


    RichieC wrote: »
    It just opened for me, no sign up required.

    Probably because you were logged in to Facebook..

    After checking: I was wrong. It does log you in automatically through your facebook account, but it's unnecessary in this case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    I don't do the ould facespace twitter malarky so yeah it'll prob just open for yez... I put it up on scribd meself for people to DL... I figure the more stuff out there the better... rationality can only triumph when people can learn about **** ... scribd is awesome !


  • Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭cyberhog


    plasmaguy wrote: »

    There is no real evidence yet Iran is close to a bomb, but a nuclear armed Iran, given their support for terrorist organisations in the ME, is not something to be taken lightly.

    Exactly why I believe it is absurd and dangerous for people like Retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey to claim without any real evidence that the “The existence of Israel is at stake,”and "Within 60 months" Iran will "have a dozen weapons."

    You have two options here. You either subscribe to the view held by the intelligence agencies that Iran is not trying to build a bomb or you believe the wild speculation swirling around in the media from the likes of McCaffrey that Iran will have a dozen weapons within 60 months. If you have a rational mind and can use good judgment it should be pretty clear to you who is talking sense, and who is talking out of another orifice.


  • Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭cyberhog


    Siuin wrote: »
    Well, just got a phone call earlier from someone close to me who is currently working in an area of the IDF which basically gives orders for everyone else to move...
    he was asking if there was any possibility that his family could come to Ireland asap, and sounded really desperate. I asked what was happening, but he couldn't tell me.
    It doesn't look good :(

    Give me a break!

    Your friend sounds like the type of person the Holocaust historian Deborah Lipstadt decries.
    “People go nuts here, they go nuts. There’s no nuance, there’s no middle ground, it’s taking any shade of grey and stomping on it. There are no voices of calm, there are no voices of reason, not in this country, not in Israel. "

    “This is the kind of thing that scares me,” she said. “Jews have always been neurotic – I mean everyone’s neurotic, we just recognize it more – but we’ve raised our neuroses to a level that’s not healthy. We should eschew hysteria, but we don’t. Hysteria is never useful."

    http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/west-of-eden/top-holocaust-scholar-blasts-holocaust-abuse-by-u-s-israeli-politicians-1.401821


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,194 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    This is an article from Global Security Newswire today.

    Israel Would Not Notify U.S. of Impending Iran Attack: Report

    Meh. I wouldn't tell the US either. First rule of operational security. Don't tell anyone.

    NTM


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,659 ✭✭✭Siuin


    cyberhog wrote: »
    Give me a break!

    Your friend sounds like the type of person the Holocaust historian Deborah Lipstadt decries.



    http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/west-of-eden/top-holocaust-scholar-blasts-holocaust-abuse-by-u-s-israeli-politicians-1.401821

    Not sure how he qualifies as some kind of 'neurotic Jew' - tbh I'd be inclined to believe that he did hear something (although it probably won't happen until around passover by the sounds of things)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 46,938 ✭✭✭✭Nodin


    "security alerts" go on all the time in countries with a "terrorist" problem, or with overseas interests. Units are put on standby 'ready to go' just in case.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,334 ✭✭✭RichieC


    Meh. I wouldn't tell the US either. First rule of operational security. Don't tell anyone.

    NTM

    It's going to be you guys digging them out of the **** and paying for it either way.

    Iran does not view Israel as a real country. merely a satellite state of the USA.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,194 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    In which case, what difference does it make to the Israelis if they think they can rely on US help either way?

    A jaunt against Iran would be a one-time opportunity that they can't afford to have go wrong. The more people that know about something, the more likely there will be a leak, either deliberate or accidental. So, don't tell anyone and reduce the chances of something going wrong.

    NTM


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,823 ✭✭✭WakeUp


    I wouldn't tell the US either. First rule of operational security. Don't tell anyone.

    NTM

    MM youre a military man and I'm sure you know more about such things than me maybe you can clear something up for me and other people on thread with regard to US knowledge of any prior attack :)

    Before I get to it, my own opinion of this will they wont they tell us if they are going to attack and all that lark, I think it is but a smokescreen between the US and Israel, an act , to give the Americans "plausible deniability".

    To the best of my knowledge Israeli defense radar , part of it anywayx- band early warning system , is integrated with US systems meaning the idea of the US being unaware of any upcoming action is either remote or impossible? Not only that but the US are in control of part of Israeli air defense?? I'm wondering can you confirm this or is there no truth in it. I understand your position I dont expect a detailed reply of something which is probably sensitive a simple yes or no would be grand:)

    And even if part of both nations defense isn't integrated, surely US radar and satellite coverage of the region would pick up the mass movement of Israeli Fighter jets in no time at all. Again as far I'm aware Israel do not possess stealth fighter jets and they wont exactly be sending a plane or two I would imagine any attack will involve their entire air-force? Surely this would be picked up I cant see how it couldn't be - making US and Israeli claims that one wouldnt know what the other is doing null and void??..


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  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭The Israeli


    WakeUp, you are probably right in everything you said, but US wants more than half an hour / one hour notice ahead to be truly ready.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,194 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    WakeUp wrote: »
    MM youre a military man and I'm sure you know more about such things than me maybe you can clear something up for me and other people on thread with regard to US knowledge of any prior attack :)

    Before I get to it, my own opinion of this will they wont they tell us if they are going to attack and all that lark, I think it is but a smokescreen between the US and Israel, an act , to give the Americans "plausible deniability".

    To the best of my knowledge Israeli defense radar , part of it anywayx- band early warning system , is integrated with US systems meaning the idea of the US being unaware of any upcoming action is either remote or impossible? Not only that but the US are in control of part of Israeli air defense?? I'm wondering can you confirm this or is there no truth in it. I understand your position I dont expect a detailed reply of something which is probably sensitive a simple yes or no would be grand:)

    And even if part of both nations defense isn't integrated, surely US radar and satellite coverage of the region would pick up the mass movement of Israeli Fighter jets in no time at all. Again as far I'm aware Israel do not possess stealth fighter jets and they wont exactly be sending a plane or two I would imagine any attack will involve their entire air-force? Surely this would be picked up I cant see how it couldn't be - making US and Israeli claims that one wouldnt know what the other is doing null and void??..

    Ballistic missile defence radars tend to look 'up', they're not going to worry about aircraft hugging the deck.
    but US wants more than half an hour / one hour notice ahead to be truly ready.

    That's the other thing. Even if they are detected by realtime systems, there's not much the US can do about it. Even if they wanted to.

    NTM


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,823 ✭✭✭WakeUp


    Ballistic missile defence radars tend to look 'up', they're not going to worry about aircraft hugging the deck.

    I understand that, I have a basic understanding how the different systems work I probably should have elaborated more in my last post. This is the part I don't understand.

    US and Israeli ballistic missile defense is integrated to some degree. The Iranians have ballistic missiles we know this. Any attack against them and its likely them missiles will be launched at targets in Israel and around the middle-east. Now if I was an Israeli military strategist/planner and the decision to attack Iran had been taken - to me the idea that they wouldn't inform the US who have a crucial fundamental role to play in the defense of their skies - I would find that dumb, reckless and absurd. Surely it stands to reason that if an attack is to go ahead they would want that radar and its ability to avert danger at full capacity, everybody on their toes and all systems go?? Not all involved playing catch up from the beginning?? That doesn't make sense to me that's the part I don't understand. I cant see how Israeli military planners would calculate taking such a risk ( not informing the US ) unless of course that's BS and spin which I personally think it is. How much control do the US have over Israeli radar defense do you know? would you be able to put it in a percentage?....


  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭The Israeli


    WakeUp wrote: »
    I understand that, I have a basic understanding how the different systems work I probably should have elaborated more in my last post. This is the part I don't understand.

    US and Israeli ballistic missile defense is integrated to some degree. The Iranians have ballistic missiles we know this. Any attack against them and its likely them missiles will be launched at targets in Israel and around the middle-east. Now if I was an Israeli military strategist/planner and the decision to attack Iran had been taken - to me the idea that they wouldn't inform the US who have a crucial fundamental role to play in the defense of their skies - I would find that dumb, reckless and absurd. Surely it stands to reason that if an attack is to go ahead they would want that radar and its ability to avert danger at full capacity, everybody on their toes and all systems go?? Not all involved playing catch up from the beginning?? That doesn't make sense to me that's the part I don't understand. I cant see how Israeli military planners would calculate taking such a risk ( not informing the US ) unless of course that's BS and spin which I personally think it is. How much control do the US have over Israeli radar defense do you know? would you be able to put it in a percentage?....

    I don't know their real considerations but the element of surprise is probably at top priority. Only very few people would be aware of the upcoming attack, if it comes to that.
    I believe that there isn't a big difference for the air defense forces because they are probably on a constant alert anyway, but sharing the strike information with more people can cause to an unnecessary leak to Iran.

    The benefits of prior knowledge to the Americans probably lie in the measures that they have to take to defend themselves against possible Iranian counter attacks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,683 ✭✭✭plasmaguy


    Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria to a lesser extent are all committed to wiping Israel off the face of the earth, there is absolutely no question of that, and will stop at nothing and I mean nothing to make that happen.

    If Hezbollah, Hamas and so on have no compunction in targeting innocent civilians and carrying out mass suicide and bomb attacks, there is no question they would have any hesitation about using a nuclear bomb against Israel.

    It's also likely the Iranian would try to station nuclear armed missiles as close as possible to Israel, to give them first strike capability...in other words if those nuclear armed missiles were stationed in Palestinian terroritories or in Syria, the Iranians could do serious damage to Israel, before the Israelis even knew what hit them, a bit like what the Soviets were doing during the Cuban missile crisis.

    Hamas might also use the threat of such a bomb or bombs as negotiating chips in future negotiations. Give us back Jeruesleum or else, would be one such demand.

    Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas are not moderate countries and organisations. They are extremists, and extremists usually go that bit further and more violently than everyone else. Proliferation of nuclear weapons and know-how in the region would be a major concern in this regard, much more so than with any other nuclear armed state, and the region is already a powder keg as it is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭cyberhog


    Iran's supreme leader insists his country is not seeking nuclear weapons.
    The Iranian nation has never pursued and will never pursue nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that the decision makers in the countries opposing us know well that Iran is not after nuclear weapons because the Islamic Republic, logically, religiously and theoretically, considers the possession of nuclear weapons a grave sin and believes the proliferation of such weapons is senseless, destructive and dangerous.

    http://news.antiwar.com/2012/02/22/irans-ayatollah-khamenei-we-will-never-seek-nuclear-weapons/


    No doubt the warmongers will claim he is lying, but the question is, why would Khamenei lie when it is already clear the West pays no attention to what he says? The warmongers don't even listen to their own intelligence agencies on this matter. Khamenei knows the warmongers have set their minds on bombing Iran so he would know lying will not do him any good at this point. So for that reason I would say it's more likely he is speaking the truth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    cyberhog wrote: »
    No doubt the warmongers will claim he is lying, but the question is, why would Khamenei lie when it is already clear the West.

    Honestly, at this point it doesn't matter what Iran does. The war mongers have made up there mind. Hopefully, saner heads will prevail and prevent what happened in Iraq happening again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭cyberhog


    Here's a timeline of the ever shifting nuclear doomsday.
    Late 1970s: US receives intelligence that the Shah had "set up a clandestine nuclear weapons development program."


    1984: US Senator Alan Cranston claims Iran is seven years away from making a weapon.


    1992: Israeli parliamentarian Benjamin Netanyahu tells his colleagues that Iran is 3 to 5 years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon


    1995: The New York Times conveys the fears of senior US and Israeli officials that "Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought" – about five years away


    1998: ...former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld reports to Congress that Iran could build an intercontinental ballistic missile – one that could hit the US – within five years.

    2002: CIA warns that the danger from nuclear-tipped missiles, especially from Iran and North Korea, is higher than during the cold war.


    2004: Secretary of State Colin Powell tells reporters that Iran had been working on technology to fit a nuclear warhead onto a missile.


    2006: The drums of war beat faster after the New Yorker’s Seymour Hersh quotes US sources saying that a strike on Iran is all but inevitable...


    2008: Then-US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton predicts that Israel will attack Iran before January 2009

    http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/422252

    The US and Israel have being crying wolf for over 30 years! It's all a load of waffle!

    I wish the neocon imperialists would find something else to do with their time. It's getting so tiresome listening to the same old unhinged rhetoric.


  • Registered Users Posts: 81,516 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    As pointed out by Mr. Stewart, the entire thing could simply boil down to campaign rhetoric, both here and in Iran:

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-march-6-2012/words-of-warcraft


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,334 ✭✭✭RichieC


    Link doesn't work from Ireland :C


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