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*Everything HPAT and Medicine 2012*

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    Darksider wrote: »
    Look at this survey, there seems to be serious points inflation going on this year.

    Though there does seem to be a correlation with higher points being more likely to be posted on the internet than lower points, which means it might not be a very representative sample.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjdswhIupxjadC05Z1ZFemR5SDZGT2M3Q29rZ1Z1QXc#gid=0

    That was going to be my next point. People on higher points seem to be more likely to post it online too. Also there is potential for people inputting p=false scores too to drive the average up and freak other people out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 53 ✭✭back to back


    The lower points colleges have dropped in the 2nd round the last 3 years, due to people across all colleges refusing the first offer.

    ucg was 729 1st round last year.dropped to 728 random selection ,but i failed to get in even on 728,so you can see why i dont consider that it dropped.on 743 this year so hoping !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭hollingr


    Mad Shark wrote: »
    I am hoping your predictions will becomes true as I will be so pleased but I predict a rise of between 8 and 12 points across the board... thats my gut feeling.... good luck everyone - be sure to post and tell us how you did!!

    Gut is about as accurate a guess as we can make in fairness.. too many variables to be making accurate predictions!

    I think it'll be less than 8-12 and more likely a 5~ point increase in the lower points colleges by final round offers for a few reasons:

    8-12 would be consistent with the last few years where HPAT scores inflated year on year, which is not the case this year. Less people have scored over 180 in the hpat this year compared with last year (according to comparison of ACER graph data, which isn't 100% accurate)

    Once over 550, maths bonus can only give you +5, absolute maximum

    The only spanner in the works is the number of people being pushed up from 525 to 550 and into contention.. but the probability of being 525-550 range AND 90th percentile AND using full 25 bonus is very small.. I don't think it will be enough to effect points 'that' significantly.

    My most optimistic, best case scenario guess:

    College......2009.........2010...........2011...........2012
    Cork..........715...10.....725.......8....733*.....6.....739
    UCD..........719....6......725......10....735......5.....740
    galwy........712*..5......719.......9....728*.....7.....735
    RCSI.........715*..6.......721.....11....732.......5.....737
    Trinity.......724*..7......731*.....8.....739*.....5.....744


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭JamJamJamJam


    Taco Chips wrote: »
    Just out of interest, what make you think 8 - 12? That seems a bit high. The jump was about 10 across the board last year and that was with the higher HPAT scores. I know that the bonus points and the higher amount of people in the 550+ range will increase the points but I don't think it will be by that much. Especially since HPAT scores have stagnated. Or maybe I'm just too optimistic...

    For me it's because you have a certain number of people each year getting in with a leaving of 530 or 540 and a good HPAT... To the people who would normally have filled this category, the 25 bonus points will be worth between around 10 or 20 points more, rather than 5 points (for people at 550+ anyway)... Leading to a bigger jump in cut off points!


    Well, that makes sense in my head... I could well be getting something wrong...! :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 40 drbtrenier


    I'm going to throw my prediction in too for the craic of it, but I have no real idea of what the rise is going to be...

    TCD - 748
    UCD - 745
    Cork - 742
    RCSI - 742
    Galway - 739


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  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    Taco Chips wrote: »
    Just out of interest, what make you think 8 - 12? That seems a bit high. The jump was about 10 across the board last year and that was with the higher HPAT scores. I know that the bonus points and the higher amount of people in the 550+ range will increase the points but I don't think it will be by that much. Especially since HPAT scores have stagnated. Or maybe I'm just too optimistic...

    For me it's because you have a certain number of people each year getting in with a leaving of 530 or 540 and a good HPAT... To the people who would normally have filled this category, the 25 bonus points will be worth between around 10 or 20 points more, rather than 5 points (for people at 550+ anyway)... Leading to a bigger jump in cut off points!


    Well, that makes sense in my head... I could well be getting something wrong...! :P
    True. But thats a smaller subgroup of the total applicants. And even smaller then when you exclude those that did pass maths.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭JamJamJamJam


    Taco Chips wrote: »
    True. But thats a smaller subgroup of the total applicants. And even smaller then when you exclude those that did pass maths.

    Fair point.. Hmmm... I dunno, the HPAT these days seems to be far more about preparing for the exam with courses, practice material, etc. The only other source of increased points I can think of is (maybe????) that previously, good and bad HPAT results were pretty much spread evenly among all applicants. However, now good HPAT scores are increasingly linked with students who do well in the Leaving Cert, too. This would just be because these students are normally the ones who do more preparation.. And if a student prepares for one, they probably prepare for the other too!

    Just a hypothesis :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 53 ✭✭Mad Shark


    Taco Chips wrote: »
    True. But thats a smaller subgroup of the total applicants. And even smaller then when you exclude those that did pass maths.


    six hours to go - i am told no point getting up at six am as the site will crash??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭QueenOfLeon


    Mad Shark wrote: »
    six hours to go - i am told no point getting up at six am as the site will crash??

    I don't think it will crash completely tbh. There haven't been any major problems in the last few years, nothing that would delay it by any major amount of time. That being said, you don't have to accept it at 6am on the dot, so having a lie in will do no one any harm! :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭DoctorMedicine


    Somebody had posted the points up here at about half past midnight last year from the Irish Times-will it be the same this year?:)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭hollingr


    nothing left to do but wait with baited breath... hopefully some newsroom folk will pt us out of our misery sooner rather than later


  • Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭DoctorMedicine


    hollingr wrote: »
    nothing left to do but wait with baited breath... hopefully some newsroom folk will pt us out of our misery sooner rather than later

    Ah sure run down to the shop there, Hollingr, and pick up a copy of the Irish Times to fill us in;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭blubloblu


    Irish Times has Monday's stories up, but nothing related to CAO afaics.


  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    blubloblu wrote: »
    Irish Times has Monday's stories up, but nothing related to CAO afaics.
    Of course. Fffffff****


  • Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭DoctorMedicine


    Even though nobody is really posting here, I feel as if I am not the only one pulling an all-nighter?:);)


  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭hollingr


    ill stay up til 2.30, then end up sleeping in til midday and missing all the fuss

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/pdf/a3_front_20120820.pdf

    no mention of medicine :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 53 ✭✭nogivingup


    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/pdf/a3_front_20120820.pdf
    No Medicine news but still worth reading!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭QueenOfLeon


    Strange they haven't mentioned medicine, usually its one of the first things that's mentioned. Here's hoping it means there were no huge rises for them to shout about!


  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭hollingr


    was thinking the same thing queen - not mentioning it means probably nothing too mad or newsworthy coming from it....... or so I will continue to hope! :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 johnnyboy18


    Duno, compared to other courses it might not look like such a huge rise - so that's why med might have been overlooked but to us the rise could still be huge 10+


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  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    Cork is 738* from the other thread!


  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭hollingr


    fast off the mark taco!

    small 5 point jump... please continue this trend medicine


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20 marienhof


    wat other thread?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭QueenOfLeon


    RCSI 741...


  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    RCSI is 741!


  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭hollingr


    medicine RCSI - 741... game over for me! :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20 marienhof


    sure u have 2nd round :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭hollingr


    anyone any recollection of how much medicine tends to drop by in subsequent rounds? i doubt it's ever gone down much?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭QueenOfLeon


    hollingr wrote: »
    anyone any recollection of how much medicine tends to drop by in subsequent rounds? i doubt it's ever gone down much?

    Last years second rounds, just from a previous post of my own. I'm sure I had reliable sources at the time :P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    TCD is 746*!!


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