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Repossessions
Comments
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That guy is a idiot. Cant believe my tv licence money in part is going towards publishing his rubbish online0
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http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/glut-of-repossessed-houses-could-depress-prices-by-up-to-25-224964.htmlGlut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’
One analyst warned that the growing mood for action on mortgage-holders with long arrears could see property values plummet as much as another 20%.
Others said a phased rise in repossessions was the key to limiting impact on prices, but they differed on whether prices should be allowed dictate policy.
Central Bank figures show 23,500 owner-occupied homes and 7,500 buy-to- lets are more than two years in arrears, meaning a first round of repossessions could potentially unleash 31,000 extra units onto a market with more than 50,000 units already for sale.
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Financial adviser Eddie Hobbs said talk of a price recovery was a “delusion” and would be until the “repossessions cascade” ended. He said the process had not even begun and when it did, repossessed properties would be priced 20% to 25% below existing units.
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However, Cathal MacCoille, chief economist with Davy, said delaying the problem would not solve it. “We should have seen 20,000 repossessions if we were on a par with the UK. There have been 1,300.
“Once you get past 365 days, the chances of recovering the loan is very low, but there is a big lump of people in arrears for more than two years. It’s better to sort through the underlying problems rather than protect house prices.”
Thanks to belcampprisioner for posting on a seperate thread
Agree strongly with Hobbs and MacCoille, if we don't sort this out now the IMF will be needed again in the future.
The forbearance measures are there, not, to keep people in their homes but to prevent property prices from collapsing further. Low house prices are good for the economy but bad for the "Irish Wealthy"
If we are passing massive debts to our children, would it not be beneficial if we passed on affordable housing also. When they reach affordable levels lock the prices in through tax mechanisms and use the tax proceeds to pay for the mistakes of this generation. These tax mechanisms should be designed so that it discourages development land hoarding, flipping, and all the other negative practices and policies of the past. Write it into our constitution and history books so that it is never forgotten0 -
Tough question. I've no doubt that I'm severely in negative equity myself, but it's our home, so we're staying and paying. Right now we can afford to. That, of course, may change.If you had purchased a house for 300k and now found that the house was only worth 125K. Would you be tempted?
Note
Many bought starter homes apartments, which they had outgrown by the time they moved in.
The banks/developers were bailed out, would you feel a bit aggrieved that you are left carrying the can for your debt + banks/developers debt + benchmarking + failed politicians extortionate pensions + every other Fianna Fail policy (of which, there were many)
Were I in this position, not only would I consider not paying but also suing the state/banks for (a) not allowing me to sell out of a loosing position in 2009, because they will not accept a price less than the mortgage
(B) not repossessing when the situation first became hopeless e.g. the loss of a job. This is what happens in every other normal functioning economy.
Failure to do either of the above has made the situation worse for both the borrower and the bank, with the borrower having the full liability.
There is a perception that repossessing is the worst evil known to mankind, when the truth is the complete opposite. Cutting that ball and chain from your ankles can be a very liberating experience
My question is this: while your post makes a lot of sense, it's not exactly proof. This professor is making this claim and I don't see any evidence. Now maybe he's got loads of evidence, but he hasn't provided it to the Indo. Maybe he has, but they've omitted it because it's boring and boring doesn't sell newspapers the way Lisa Murphy's antics do.
I could I suppose, but that's not my job. Why didn't the Indo? They've got paid, professional reporters on their staff that could have asked that question before the article was published. You may disagree with me, but I think this is lazy journalism.0 -
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http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0313/376398-government-mortgage-arrears/The Government and the Central Bank have unveiled unprecedented measures to tackle the mortgage arrears crisis.
The steps put greater emphasis on writing down debt, while acknowledging some borrowers will have to volunteer to surrender possession of properties.
Banks will be forced to reach sustainable solutions with 20% of borrowers in arrears by the end of July.
That figure will increase to 30% by the end of the third quarter of 2013 and 50% by the end of the year.
The Central Bank has also published a new code of conduct on mortgage arrears.
That will see the restriction that blocked banks from making more than three unsolicited contacts with customers per month dropped.
The Central Bank has not found the banks were harassing customers in its site visits to banks, but was concerned that the limited contacts were hampering lenders dealing with arrears.
The new policy will see borrowers afforded breathing space to deal with banks while blocking banks from harassing customers.
Significantly, as part of the new targets for banks, regulators are openly asking lenders to include debt forgiveness if it is appropriate.
In the Central Bank's definition of a sustainable solution, it includes repayment of "a revised principal sum" - in other words some of the debt being written down if the bank offers a deal to a customer.
The Central Bank hopes to increase the use of split mortgages.
This would see a home loan divided into two parts, with the customer paying the first part and the second part would be parked without interest accruing in some circumstances.
In some cases the second part would be written off at the end of the term of the home loan.
However, it would be up to individual banks to determine if this would be appropriate.
If a new sustainable solution cannot be reached with the bank, the borrower has the option to use the personal insolvency arrangements, which will be operational in June.
If banks fail to restructure loans they will have to write-down the loans to value of the loan to repossession value of the property.
That will require banks to set aside more capital for loans in arrears.
The measures will cover AIB, Bank of Ireland, Permanent TSB, Ulster Bank, KBC and ACC.
Almost 12% of owner occupier mortgages are in arrears.
Politicians and the Central Bank are frustrated with progress in the issue despite years of negotiations.
One of my biggest fears in this, is that banks management and staff will effectively have the ability to write down debt for mortgage holders of their choosing and incur the liability on the states behalf.
This will be open to widespread abuse.
Staff with authority to make decisions will be able to look after their friends and family.
This will happen in the exact same way bank staff friends and family have never had issues in attaining finance.0 -
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http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0313/376398-government-mortgage-arrears/
One of my biggest fears in this, is that banks management and staff will effectively have the ability to write down debt for mortgage holders of their choosing and incur the liability on the states behalf.
This will be open to widespread abuse.
Staff with authority to make decisions will be able to look after their friends and family.
This will happen in the exact same way bank staff friends and family have never had issues in attaining finance.
what an absolute joke. Its a shambles.
You cant pay use MARP, debt forgiveness is one thing debt forgiveness and allowing people keep their homes is a totally different kettle of fish.
besides this you can be sure bank officials will sort out family and friends unjustly so. This will be abused from pillar to post.
SHAMBLES. I actually thought FG & LAB have done a pretty good job of unravelling FF's mess up to this point but this more than undoes everything.0 -
Lets wait and see how it pans out. We're speculating here a bit. At least it's forcing banks to deal properly with arrears rather than just leaving them on the sidelines to build up. Personally I think most banks have been completely ignoring the issue altogether.
They've said repossessions will rise significantly so that should please some people. And if they can sort of many of the arrears with out huge numbers of write downs that has to be a good thing.0 -
cookie1977 wrote: »Lets wait and see how it pans out. We're speculating here a bit. At least it's forcing banks to deal properly with arrears rather than just leaving them on the sidelines to build up. Personally I think most banks have been completely ignoring the issue altogether.
They've said repossessions will rise significantly so that should please some people. And if they can sort of many of the arrears with out huge numbers of write downs that has to be a good thing.
in fairness the banks were hanstrung regarding reposessions under the legistlation. No bank wants to leave a hosue over 2 years in arrears without action.
I cant see anything but a vote getting exercise here its a joke. I feel sorry for people who are having mortgage difficulties I wish them all well, if there is any chink of light then i thnk the banks should work with them.
If the bank is likely to make a better return by doing a deal with them then reposession then thats the right thing to do as ultimately I want the banks to do the best thing financially as we own them.
It would be a bitter pill to swallow for me and others who were responsible and pay their debt but theres no point in being illogical in this. We need to think about this without emotion.
But FFS this is still hampering banks. Let them function correctly. Let them start by repoin any BTL's in aeears over 6 months whilst in parallel repoing any PPR's that are underwater with no hope of being reserected (using MARP)
That in itself is a significant exercise. Get that doen then re evaluate the loan books and the situation at that point. Why can these people not apply logic to things.0 -
in fairness the banks were hanstrung regarding reposessions under the legistlation. No bank wants to leave a hosue over 2 years in arrears without action.
I cant see anything but a vote getting exercise here its a joke. I feel sorry for people who are having mortgage difficulties I wish them all well, if there is any chink of light then i thnk the banks should work with them.
If the bank is likely to make a better return by doing a deal with them then reposession then thats the right thing to do as ultimately I want the banks to do the best thing financially as we own them.
It would be a bitter pill to swallow for me and others who were responsible and pay their debt but theres no point in being illogical in this. We need to think about this without emotion.
But FFS this is still hampering banks. Let them function correctly. Let them start by repoin any BTL's in aeears over 6 months whilst in parallel repoing any PPR's that are underwater with no hope of being reserected (using MARP)
That in itself is a significant exercise. Get that doen then re evaluate the loan books and the situation at that point. Why can these people not apply logic to things.
I'd agree with you on the BTL's completely. If they look properly at the PDH/PPR's and find some that are completely unsaveable then proceed there too. In relation to the restrictions under the previous legislation, while I'd agree that it hampered banks dealing effectively with the arrears in many ways I do not for an instant believe that the banks would still have dealt properly with many of those in difficult arrears but who were still rescueable with the write deal (not including debt write down here as part of a deal).
Lets be honest here. Most of the banks would happily repossess most long term arrears cases and get judgements on the outstanding balance against the mortgage holder rendering them burdened for life. They are not the friendly face they like to present on their ads so someone/something still needs to keep them in check since as you say we own most of them.0 -
cookie1977 wrote: »Lets be honest here. Most of the banks would happily repossess most long term arrears cases and get judgements on the outstanding balance against the mortgage holder rendering them burdened for life. They are not the friendly face they like to present on their ads so someone/something still needs to keep them in check since as you say we own most of them.
totally agree. Thats where MARP needs to be used or if banks are prevening this process form working properly, that the regulator needs to get involved and kick some sense into them.
No point in burdening somebody for life. Repo and do a deal, 100, 200 a month or whatever is right in the individual circumstance for 10 years whatever it may be and just let people move on.
I know many would baulk at that, but we have to do something realistic and stop this knock on impact to the greater economy.
Its not like the people get off scott free, they will have lost their home, and still have a level of residual debt to pay off. Banks can finally clean up their balance sheet and life can move on.0 -
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totally agree. Thats where MARP needs to be used or if banks are prevening this process form working properly, that the regulator needs to get involved and kick some sense into them.
No point in burdening somebody for life. Repo and do a deal, 100, 200 a month or whatever is right in the individual circumstance for 10 years whatever it may be and just let people move on.
I know many would baulk at that, but we have to do something realistic and stop this knock on impact to the greater economy.
Its not like the people get off scott free, they will have lost their home, and still have a level of residual debt to pay off. Banks can finally clean up their balance sheet and life can move on.
Certainly if you've gotten in to debt (however that happened) there has to be some personal responsibility and serious consequences but there is absolutely no point in destroying someones life just to get a pound of flesh. No one is going to be happy with whatever solution is proposed but as long as all sides feel that there is some measure of fairness then that's what's important too.0 -
a modicum of logical non emotional thought. Pity as a collective society we cant act like that !0
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its about time repossession started happen wholesale its doing no one any favours sticking heads in the sand. Does who can pay should those who cant join the rental market and if you cant pay that I am sure our welfare state will pay for it.0
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monkeypants wrote: »Tough question. I've no doubt that I'm severely in negative equity myself, but it's our home, so we're staying and paying. Right now we can afford to. That, of course, may change.
My question is this: while your post makes a lot of sense, it's not exactly proof. This professor is making this claim and I don't see any evidence. Now maybe he's got loads of evidence, but he hasn't provided it to the Indo.
MP hope everything works out for you
He has another article in today's Irish Times, again no evidence just uses data available to question the level of arrears.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/can-t-pay-won-t-pay-where-does-the-truth-lie-in-the-mortgage-arrears-crisis-crisis-1.1334707
I do feel he brings an important point into the whole debt forgiveness debate.
Where there is debt forgiveness proposed there should be full transparency on the recipients income.
The Gov know something we don't and they are consistently drawing a line between "can't pay" and "won't pay". How long would it take to gather the PPS numbers of those in arrears and compare with Revenue data (amazing what excel can do)
This mortgage crisis is going to be very expensive to resolve and will lead to higher taxes and interest rates. If there are chancers out there trying to take advantage they need to be rooted out, so that you and I do not pay more.0 -
A month earlier in another article Gregory was suggesting between 35% and possibly more than 50% of those in arrears were strategic defaulters basing some of he's ideas on the US market which he says has up to 50% defaulters:
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2013/02/19/how-large-are-strategic-arrears-in-the-irish-mortgage-market/
Yet he does not take into account recourse versus non-recourse mortgage systems in both countries. He seems to be changing his mind as he never stated any figures he had in mind in the Irish Times article. A bit odd to me.
I'm all for identifying and pursuing strategic defaulters but pulling numbers out of a hat reminds me of a scene in the film the Manchurian Candidate about the "precise numbers of persons in the communist party"
http://www.tubechop.com/watch/10470620
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