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Libertas welcomes Cóir endorsement

  • 02-06-2009 3:57pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭


    According to the Examiner (p.8, doesn't seem to be online):
    Libertas has welcomed the support of anti-abortion group Cóir for the European election candidates. In recent days, members of the group have been canvassing for Libertas Dublin European candidate Caroline Simons.

    Well, it's not as if we didn't know that Libertas was connected to Cóir, but a candidate endorsement plus canvassing for Simmons....that cat is firmly out of the bag, then.

    Is this a sensible move by Libertas/Cóir, or a last-ditch attempt to capture the social conservative vote?

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


«1

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭Hitman Actual


    I can see that it might help Coir. They're generally hated outside their own minority extremist section of society, so whoring themselves out to any other groups might help their standing.

    I don't see how it helps Libertas though. If such a tie was ever going to gain them extra votes, surely it's a bit late now? And they'll never be able to shake off the connection in future debates. Even during the referendum campaign, Catholic bishops were endorsing the Lisbon Treaty (or at least acknowledging the fact that senstive social issues would not be affected), in direct opposition to Coirs deceitful stance. At any rate, issues of abortion and euthanasia only played a small part in the No vote (2%), so it's not like anyone really listens to Coir anyway. Meh, it's something of a pointless move by Libertas, imo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    While I'd never vote for Libertas and their loose play with "truth" annoys me a bit I don't really have a problem with them. Cóir/Youth Defence on the other hand make my blood boil. They're nutters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    well with support like this:



    Declan Ganley doesnt need Coir.

    So of course they are out helping Caroline instead...


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    I can see that it might help Coir. They're generally hated outside their own minority extremist section of society, so whoring themselves out to any other groups might help their standing.

    I don't see how it helps Libertas though. If such a tie was ever going to gain them extra votes, surely it's a bit late now? And they'll never be able to shake off the connection in future debates. Even during the referendum campaign, Catholic bishops were endorsing the Lisbon Treaty (or at least acknowledging the fact that senstive social issues would not be affected), in direct opposition to Coirs deceitful stance. At any rate, issues of abortion and euthanasia only played a small part in the No vote (2%), so it's not like anyone really listens to Coir anyway. Meh, it's something of a pointless move by Libertas, imo.

    That's why it interests me. It would be pretty damaging in the autumn, and last time they did what they could to minimise and pooh-pooh the connection. Even up to now, despite the rather obvious links, it's been kept quiet - yet now it's suddenly in public view with only a few days to go. That makes it look like a desperation move - a gamble for the conservative vote - yet we've heard all kinds of claims recently of a 'Ganley surge' and a 'Libertas groundswell'.

    Something does not add up - I'm tempted, of course, to add that that's hardly surprising where Libertas is involved...

    slightly perplexed,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    does he still have 500 candidates?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    That's why it interests me. It would be pretty damaging in the autumn, and last time they did what they could to minimise and pooh-pooh the connection. Even up to now, despite the rather obvious links, it's been kept quiet - yet now it's suddenly in public view with only a few days to go. That makes it look like a desperation move - a gamble for the conservative vote - yet we've heard all kinds of claims recently of a 'Ganley surge' and a 'Libertas groundswell'.

    Something does not add up - I'm tempted, of course, to add that that's hardly surprising where Libertas is involved...

    slightly perplexed,
    Scofflaw

    Well, there have been suggestions that the polls are underestimating Ganley's core vote because people are reluctant or embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for him. This is somewhat mirrored by the odds on Ganley winning a seat with bookmakers who have him on much shorter odds than his 9% would warrant.

    He's still an outsider though, at 5/4 (2.25) versus the third place candidate Marian Harkin trading at 1/7 (1.14) but 5/4 is very short nonetheless given where he's been polling.

    For comparison, Toireasa Ferris is polling at 13/14% and trading at 5/1 (6.00) which is a substantial difference.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    nesf wrote: »
    Well, there have been suggestions that the polls are underestimating Ganley's core vote because people are reluctant or embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for him. This is somewhat mirrored by the odds on Ganley winning a seat with bookmakers who have him on much shorter odds than his 9% would warrant.

    He's still an outsider though, at 5/4 (2.25) versus the third place candidate Marian Harkin trading at 1/7 (1.14) but 5/4 is very short nonetheless given where he's been polling.

    For comparison, Toireasa Ferris is polling at 13/14% and trading at 5/1 (6.00) which is a substantial difference.

    I imagine that the difference essentially reflects the bookie's difficulties in judging Ganley's 'form'.

    I'm not sure why people would be shy about saying they're going to vote Libertas, though - they seem a very vocal lot normally. Shy about FF I can understand, but shy about Libertas? I'm dubious - I think the whole thing suggests to me that the Ganley surge is rather like the one in Iraq, and that Libertas know it. I can't see any other reason for this announcement, when they've kept the CÓIR connection quiet so long.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I imagine that the difference essentially reflects the bookie's difficulties in judging Ganley's 'form'.

    His odds have been shortening for the past month. He was out at 4/1 at one point if I recall correctly.
    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I'm not sure why people would be shy about saying they're going to vote Libertas, though - they seem a very vocal lot normally.

    Libertas are vocal, but I'm not sure if that applies to people who are considering voting for them.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭Hitman Actual


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I'm not sure why people would be shy about saying they're going to vote Libertas, though - they seem a very vocal lot normally.

    Something trivial and not really worthy of debate, but I did find the following piece in The Times today amusing. Caroline Simons apparently made a veiled accusation that one of their opponents had attempted to set their Dublin office on fire, and their campaigners ran with it. What with Coir having to help her out, and this bizarre accusation, Caroline is obviously feeling the pressure in this last few days.
    wrote:
    Libertas fires off bizarre press release as campaign heats up

    In the last days of an election campaign, paranoia can go into overdrive. And so it proved for Libertas, who admit a press release sent out yesterday was, to say the least, “over zealous”.
    It concerned a fire at the party’s office on Dublin’s Baggot Street. “The cause is unknown,” said the breathless release, which quoted the party’s Dublin candidate Caroline Simons as “shocked that something like this would happen. The basement of our office building is on fire. I hope that this is not the action of some political crank. I know the political establishment are against us, but this is highly unusual. If this fire is found to be the action of an opposing political party – we will seek prosecutions. Fires are dangerous things.”
    According to press officer John McGuirk, the release was issued by an overzealous subordinate. It was in fact a small fire caused by an electrical fault and there were no injuries. The candidate herself was unaware of the details. She was out canvassing in North Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭Jack Sheehan


    This just in: Libertas go snooker loopy over small electrical fire.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    BlitzKrieg wrote: »
    well with support like this:

    Declan Ganley doesnt need Coir.

    So of course they are out helping Caroline instead...
    youtube wrote:
    MsDonegal
    Joined: 30 May 2009
    That account only has 1 video, yeah I'm totally sure some randomer in Donegal joined up to youtube on the 30th May 2009 just to post a cutsie amateurish video of a song about Declan Ganley.

    One with strangely high quality sound production values and all.

    Oh yes, and this brand new, one time youtuber is strangely savvy enough to include the following keywords on the video
    lisbon treaty the lisbon treaty declan ganley song the declan ganley song a declan ganley song declan ganley election song european elections no.1 song 5th june pat the cope sinn fein marian harkin padraig maclochlainn EU labour fianna fail fine gael joe reilly susan o'keefe paschal mooney PRO LIFE libertas

    Definite proof Ganley is in touch with the common person alright :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,211 ✭✭✭Happy Monday


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I'm dubious - I think the whole thing suggests to me that the Ganley surge is rather like the one in Iraq.

    Whatever that means....:confused:

    Declan G is the only major candidate from the southern part of the constituency and the only candidate from Co. Galway. This does matter as all politics at the end of the day is local.

    To what extent he will benefit from that will be clear at the end of the week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    Who says he's a "major" candidate?

    He's not from any of the big parties, he has a bit of profile but that's about it. He's no different from any other independent as far as I'm concerned.

    If the swastika drawn on his forehead in the poster around the corner from me is anything to go by, I would say he shouldn't count on 100% support in Galway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Whatever that means....:confused:

    Declan G is the only major candidate from the southern part of the constituency and the only candidate from Co. Galway. This does matter as all politics at the end of the day is local.

    To what extent he will benefit from that will be clear at the end of the week.

    That is true, of course. It's not really relevant to the question of how the Ganley surge is going, but it's true nonetheless.

    amused,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,211 ✭✭✭Happy Monday


    Who says he's a "major" candidate?

    Major in the sense that he is broadly viewed as a contender for a seat by the larger parties.

    If he wasn't a major candidate why are so many contributors on here obsessed by him?

    Plus - agreed - he won't receive anything like 100% in Galway.

    But he will receive a larger percentage of the Galway vote due to the inability of FF to field a candidate from this region.

    This bounce will bring him some way above the 9% the polls are currently suggesting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,258 ✭✭✭MayoForSam


    Heard Ganley on George Hook earlier, he welcomed the endorsement of Dana Rosemary Scanlon and declared himself to be pro-life. Obviously trying to attract the older, Catholic voters in the north and west. I thought he was shifty before now and this only confirms it.

    Journalist from the Mayo News reckons he has a decent chance of a seat though, he does have virtually the entire south of the constituency to himself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    For all this talk of him getting a seat, whose will he take?

    Higgins, Gallagher and Harkin all polling > 17%

    Conventional wisdom would see all of them elected, which one would Ganley oust, which one would have a total meltdown, because that's what it would take?

    Also I think Ganley will be transfer poison, anyone who wants him in will vote for him, he won't pick up mass transfers from any other candidate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,211 ✭✭✭Happy Monday


    For all this talk of him getting a seat, whose will he take?

    Higgins, Gallagher and Harkin all polling > 17%

    Harkin would be the most vulnerable - her vote has been targeted by Mooney and O'Reilly from the Cavan, Leitrim, Sligo part of the constituency.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    MayoForSam wrote: »
    Heard Ganley on George Hook earlier, he welcomed the endorsement of Dana Rosemary Scanlon and declared himself to be pro-life. Obviously trying to attract the older, Catholic voters in the north and west. I thought he was shifty before now and this only confirms it.

    Journalist from the Mayo News reckons he has a decent chance of a seat though, he does have virtually the entire south of the constituency to himself.

    Endorsed by Dana, endorsed by CÓIR, eulogised by Alive! and the Hibernian - I thought Libertas were supposed to be something new and shiny.

    glumly,
    Scofflaw


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,780 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Heading to and from Sligo today - everywhere the Western Rail Corridor crosses the road there's a sign saying "Ganley supports the WRC". Arriving into Sligo, "Ganley supports the retention of Sligo cancer services".

    Basically, if it's a local hot topic, he's all for it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    Harkin would be the most vulnerable - her vote has been targeted by Mooney and O'Reilly from the Cavan, Leitrim, Sligo part of the constituency.

    Yet Harkin was up 1 to 19% in the last poll.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    Heading to and from Sligo today - everywhere the Western Rail Corridor crosses the road there's a sign saying "Ganley supports the WRC". Arriving into Sligo, "Ganley supports the retention of Sligo cancer services".

    Basically, if it's a local hot topic, he's all for it.

    It's f*cking shameless isn't it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,211 ✭✭✭Happy Monday


    Yet Harkin was up 1 to 19% in the last poll.

    Only one poll that counts my Papal friend! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    Only one poll that counts my Papal friend! :D

    That's what I hear on the doorsteps... ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,211 ✭✭✭Happy Monday


    That's what I hear on the doorsteps... ;)

    Your representing the Christian Brothers your Holiness? :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭PopeBuckfastXVI


    Your representing the Christian Brothers your Holiness? :cool:

    lol... only thems that drink Buckfast!


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    nesf wrote: »
    Well, there have been suggestions that the polls are underestimating Ganley's core vote because people are reluctant or embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for him. This is somewhat mirrored by the odds on Ganley winning a seat with bookmakers who have him on much shorter odds than his 9% would warrant.

    He's still an outsider though, at 5/4 (2.25) versus the third place candidate Marian Harkin trading at 1/7 (1.14) but 5/4 is very short nonetheless given where he's been polling.

    For comparison, Toireasa Ferris is polling at 13/14% and trading at 5/1 (6.00) which is a substantial difference.

    I'd also imagine that they are trying to avoid getting caught for a big win. As others have posted he needs an awful lot of Galway to have any chance and with all the no-hopers eliminated he will be hard pushed to get any transfers from FG or FF. Even the Labour transfers are very unlikely to go his way.

    That really leaves SF and while they may be on the "same" side I can't really see their voters giving Ganley preferences. Just can't see him leapfrogging any of the candidate at 17%+. Harkin is well-liked and has worked very hard. That on its own may be enough for her. She is also at 19%, double his rating.

    In the 2004 EU elections the Independent share of the vote was just over 30% which included Dana's vote. 1999 had it at almost 35%. If that is replicated that would suggest that Ganley will be closer to 10%. Even at Dana's 13.5% he will not get elected.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,685 ✭✭✭✭BlitzKrieg


    For all this talk of him getting a seat, whose will he take?

    Higgins, Gallagher and Harkin all polling > 17%

    Conventional wisdom would see all of them elected, which one would Ganley oust, which one would have a total meltdown, because that's what it would take?

    Also I think Ganley will be transfer poison, anyone who wants him in will vote for him, he won't pick up mass transfers from any other candidate.

    I think a flaw in his campaign has been that he has gone after everyone, so he burnt his own bridges in the way of transfers. If he focused on Fianna Fail like everyone else, he might have built some momentum in the way of transfers, but now anyone who would vote for any of the major parties wouldnt give him a transfer because he has attacked every major party.

    I think this could be the achilles heal to the aggressive form of politics found in the US but not here, aggressive politics does not work well with the transfer system because you are pushing yourself purely for one spot and norhing else. While toning the aggression down and spreading yourself generates alot of transfers I assume.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭P. Breathnach


    nesf wrote: »
    Well, there have been suggestions that the polls are underestimating Ganley's core vote because people are reluctant or embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they're voting for him. This is somewhat mirrored by the odds on Ganley winning a seat with bookmakers who have him on much shorter odds than his 9% would warrant.

    He's still an outsider though, at 5/4 (2.25) versus the third place candidate Marian Harkin trading at 1/7 (1.14) but 5/4 is very short nonetheless given where he's been polling...

    I told one person who will be away from home on polling day about this. That person has decided to travel home to add one more vote for anybody-but-Ganley. Even a slim chance of his getting elected is a most distasteful prospect.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,082 ✭✭✭lostexpectation


    we do all remember dana won


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